edatoakrun
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Sep 30, 2017 11:58 am

Why do you think that ~eight month old pump piece you posted the link to is relevant today?

finman100 wrote:yay! more lies! it's called re-investment for the future. something other auto makers could look into. or not.
..(Disclosure: We own shares in Tesla.)...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/aalsin/2017/03/14/why-general-motors-has-already-lost-to-tesla/#186c63dd3ccb

oh. and good luck on the shorts...


Here's a more recent opinion, from a TSLA short, which a rational reader might find persuasive:

Tesla Is 'Structurally Unprofitable,' Chanos Says

Tesla Inc., a perennial target of short sellers, is “structurally unprofitable” with a “way too leveraged” capital structure, said famed investor Jim Chanos.

“Three years ago, this company was supposed to be making money now,” Chanos, who’s betting against Tesla shares, said in an interview Thursday on Bloomberg Television. “Now it’s supposed to be making money by 2020. And I’m guessing by 2019, we’ll hear about 2025.”

Chanos, who bet early on energy company Enron Corp.’s failure, said the electric-car maker run by Elon Musk is behind on autonomous driving technology and rushed the Model 3 to market to appease investors. SolarCity Corp., the solar installer Tesla acquired in a controversial deal last year, is about a $1 billion drain to shareholders annually, he said...

“This stock, probably more than almost any other, is a poster child for the hopes and dreams of this bull market,” Chanos said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... hanos-says
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keydiver
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:45 am

Chanos, who bet early on energy company Enron Corp.’s failure, said the electric-car maker run by Elon Musk is behind on autonomous driving technology


Has Chanos actually SEEN the Audi Level 3 tech? Its a joke! In the video that I saw, the Audi does far less than my 2 year old AP1 does, with the exception of the hands-off feature. My AP1 used to be more hands-off, but Tesla saw fit to tighten things up for safety reasons. IMO, Audi is just trying to grab headlines, and its just splitting hairs for them to say they have Level 3 autonomy. Let it up to the shorts to simply parrot the Audi press announcements. Oh, and it will be available in 2019. :roll:
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edatoakrun
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Oct 02, 2017 2:12 pm

Tesla deliveries hit by 'production bottleneck' for Model 3

Tesla Inc. TSLA, -1.62% lived up to expectations for car deliveries in the third quarter, but the company's new Model 3 sedan got off to a slow start due to production issues. The electric-car company said Monday afternoon that it delivered 26,150 vehicles in the quarter, slightly beating estimates. However, the company delivered only 220 of its newest car, the Model 3, after Chief Executive Elon Musk's big launch event for the highly anticipated new vehicle in July. "Model 3 production was less than anticipated due to production bottlenecks," the company said...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla- ... 2017-10-02

http://ir.tesla.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1042449
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Oct 02, 2017 2:22 pm

http://insideevs.com/tesla-reports-q3-s ... sses-mark/ mentions the 260 Model 3 produced vs. what Elon originally claimed.
In the end, Tesla reported they built 260 Model 3s during Q3, about 1,400 light.

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sparky
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:46 pm

26000 vehicles for the quarter is great.
It looks to me like the oft derided Model X is on it's way to outselling the S.
I guess I helped; got a new X90D 6 weeks ago. Already put 4000 miles on it. Great machine.

lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Oct 02, 2017 8:23 pm

sparky wrote:26000 vehicles for the quarter is great.


That results in a 2017 YTD number of 73K. The 2017 guidance is 110K which requires at least 37K in Q4. Maybe you should start
calling your friends for a X demo ride with a sales pitch. Elon could use your help in Q4!

mtndrew1
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Oct 03, 2017 8:39 am

lorenfb wrote:
sparky wrote:26000 vehicles for the quarter is great.


That results in a 2017 YTD number of 73K. The 2017 guidance is 110K which requires at least 37K in Q4. Maybe you should start
calling your friends for a X demo ride with a sales pitch. Elon could use your help in Q4!


Not sure where you got 110k from but from, you know, their actual guidance available at their investors website:

“In total, we expect to deliver about 100,000 Model S and X vehicles in 2017, which would be a 31% increase over 2016.”

Also anxiously awaiting your calculations on deliveries going forward given that Tesla delivered 4,860 Model S and 3,120 Model X in the US in September and you’re so very adamant that it couldn’t be due to a cyclical nature of deliveries wherein most US deliveries happen in the last month of a given quarter.
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lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Oct 03, 2017 8:59 am

mtndrew1 wrote:
lorenfb wrote:
sparky wrote:26000 vehicles for the quarter is great.


That results in a 2017 YTD number of 73K. The 2017 guidance is 110K which requires at least 37K in Q4. Maybe you should start
calling your friends for a X demo ride with a sales pitch. Elon could use your help in Q4!


Not sure where you got 110k from but from, you know, their actual guidance available at their investors website:

“In total, we expect to deliver about 100,000 Model S and X vehicles in 2017, which would be a 31% increase over 2016.”


That 100K was recently revised down from 110K. Maybe in November, Elon will revise it down again.

mtndrew1 wrote:Also anxiously awaiting your calculations on deliveries going forward given that Tesla delivered 4,860 Model S and 3,120 Model X in the US in September and you’re so very adamant that it couldn’t be due to a cyclical nature of deliveries wherein most US deliveries happen in the last month of a given quarter.


Those numbers based on InsideEVs guesses for Tesla, i.e. other OEMs actually report data to InsideEVs, are useless
for analysis as was noted up-thread last month.

Example:
InsideEVs U.S. YTD S/X - 35K, WW (U.S. @ 60%) would be at 58K
Actual WW per Tesla is 73K

mtndrew1
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Oct 03, 2017 9:48 am

Link for this 110k number?

Again, from their investor site, here is what they said in Q4 of 2016:

“We expect to deliver 47,000 to 50,000 Model S and Model X vehicles combined in the first half of 2017”

Then in Q1 of 2017:

“Based on our current order and production rates, our first half outlook remains unchanged at 47,000 to 50,000 deliveries”

Note: They did exactly as they guided from the end of 2016 forward and delivered 47,077 vehicles in the first half of 2017.

Then this is what they said in their Q2 letter:

“In addition to the 2017 Model 3 production guidance provided above, we expect Model S and Model X deliveries to increase in the second half of 2017, as compared to the first half of the year.”

Then this is what they said yesterday:

“We had previously indicated that second half Model S and X deliveries would likely exceed first half deliveries of 47,077, but we now expect to exceed that by several thousand vehicles. In total, we expect to deliver about 100,000 Model S and X vehicles in 2017, which would be a 31% increase over 2016.”

The only revised guidance has been up unless you can provide a link to indicate otherwise.

Mine all came from ir.tesla.com (not that it matters but I’m not a TSLA investor and never have been).
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edatoakrun
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Oct 03, 2017 11:33 am

Off topic comment at Official Tesla Model 3 thread:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=18016&start=1140

lpickup wrote:
edatoakrun wrote:
LTLFTcomposite wrote:I wonder what the production "bottlenecks" are

Poor management?

While management is certainly to blame for unnecessarily creating twitter hype and outlining a best case scenario for ramp up, I see no evidence that management itself is responsible for actual production bottlenecks. It's par for the course when launching a new production line. The only mistake is that Elon should probably have kept his production targets between him and his production team and confined his tweets to actual confirmed progress.

edatoakrun wrote:Model 3 production execution would seem to be slightly less-than-perfect, as model 3 production has only reached about 1% of the ~24,000 one prominent tesliac was projecting by October, about seven months ago.

See the chart at:

Tesla Model 3: perfect production execution means around 80,000 vehicles in 2017

Fred Lambert - Feb. 27th 2017 4:36 pm ET

.... we track a perfect execution of a Model 3 production ramp at about 80,000 units in 2017...

https://electrek.co/2017/02/27/tesla-mo ... tion-2017/


Again, it seems as if you don't even read the stuff you post. Funny you didn't include the very next sentence after the one you quoted:

That would barely make a dent in Tesla’s backlog of over 400,000 reservations and again, that’s assuming a perfect execution, which is near impossible.


But please continue to cherry pick 7 month old sound bites out of context to back up your thesis that Tesla is only a quarter away from going bankrupt, and continue to do so quarter after quarter after quarter...

You are welcome to criticize any of my comments, but please do not lie about what I have said.

I have always only stated the obvious, that in light of continuing massive loses, TSLA will face insolvency only if and when it cannot raise more cash from investors or lenders to meet its obligations.

That should be at least several quarters in the future...
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