GRA
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Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:46 pm

Via ABG:
Tesla's Musk engages German workers to try to stave off strike
http://www.autoblog.com/2017/04/21/tesl ... on-strike/

. . . The division's complaints are twofold: IG Metall, Germany's biggest union, has said the workers are getting paid about 30-percent less than the union pay scale, so workers are looking to be paid on average about $270 a month more than Tesla has offered. Additionally, Tesla jettisoned all of Grohmann Engineering's other automaker clients so that the unit could focus on the Model 3 deadline, sparking concerns that Tesla may lay off workers in the future.

Musk has responded to such concerns by attempting to reassure workers that there are no layoffs planned for at least five years, while offering workers bonuses and Tesla shares that would vest during the next four years. Musk has been critical of unions in the past, including alleging that the United Auto Workers (UAW) has its primary allegiance with the Big 3 US automakers and is similarly questioning the motives of IG Metall as he negotiates with German workers. . . .
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 7097
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Apr 27, 2017 5:40 pm

Via IEVS:
To Avoid Strike That Could Impact Model 3, Tesla Raises Worker Wages In Germany
http://insideevs.com/avoid-strike-tesla-raises-worker-wages/
. . . Additionally, “Tesla has given job guarantees and pay rises to the firm’s 700 employees…”

But Tesla isn’t out of the strike waters just yet. Reuters states:

“The union said job guarantees and the offer of employee stock options have significantly reduced the prospect of a strike. Still, IG Metall is demanding a collective wage bargaining contract and improved pay. The union has complained that pay at Grohmann is 25 to 30 percent below an industry-wide collective agreement for the metalworker electric industry.”

“The head of Grohmann’s works council, Uwe Herzig, said Tesla had offered another 1,000 euro ($1,089) one-off payment after Easter, on top of job guarantees, pay rises and stock options.”

“In March Tesla offered employees a pay raise of 150 euros a month. This was followed up just before Easter with an offer of 10,000 euros in stock options for four years, and a pledge to guarantee jobs for five years, Herzig said. . . .”
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

edatoakrun
Posts: 4443
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Apr 27, 2017 7:15 pm

GRA wrote:Via IEVS:
To Avoid Strike That Could Impact Model 3, Tesla Raises Worker Wages In Germany
http://insideevs.com/avoid-strike-tesla-raises-worker-wages/
. . . Additionally, “Tesla has given job guarantees and pay rises to the firm’s 700 employees…”

Rather different than TSLA's USA (anti) labor policies...

Workers Involved In Union Activities Say Tesla Is Illegally Intimidating Them

Last week, the union trying to organize Tesla’s Fremont factory filed charges with the National Labor Relations Board alleging that the company is illegally preventing workers from distributing information about the unionization effort.


...News of the UAW’s efforts to unionize Tesla’s plant broke in February, when Tesla employee Jose Moran published a blog post on Medium citing long hours, repeated stress injuries, and less-than-competitive pay among reasons why Tesla employees should join a union.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk immediately hit back, first accusing Moran of being a union plant and then writing an email to employees in which he argued that the union would be bad for working conditions, and promised to install both a roller coaster and free frozen yogurt machines throughout the facility...

In February, a group of California lawmakers warned Tesla that the confidentiality agreement it requires workers to sign is overbroad, a fact that “has resulted in a chilling effect on workers’ ability to engage in protected activity,” they said in a letter.

That agreement, according to a copy obtained by the blog Teslarati, bars workers from sharing information about Tesla products, communicating with the media about Tesla, posting photos or videos taken inside Tesla facilities online, and writing “about your work in any social media, blog, or book.”

More recently, nearly 60 labor and community groups signed a letter criticizing the confidentiality agreement and taking Musk to task for creating a work environment in which some workers feel their right to discuss union activities has been stifled...

https://www.buzzfeed.com/carolineodonov ... aeJe5M456Q
no condition is permanent

GRA
Posts: 7097
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon May 01, 2017 5:27 pm

Via IEVS:
Consumer Reports Says Auto Brake Update Not Enough For Tesla To Regain Top Safety Rating
http://insideevs.com/consumer-reports-s ... ugh-tesla/

The over-the-air update Tesla pushed out to activate automatic emergency braking is sub par and not enough for Consumer Reports to move the Model S back to its safest-in-the-world status.

Last week, Consumer Reports made the decision to downgrade both the Tesla Model S and Model X due to an absent safety feature that had long been promised by Tesla. . . .

Tesla immediately responded by pushing out an OTA update to activate automatic emergency braking. . . .

Now that automatic emergency braking is present in both the Model S and X, has Consumer Reports upgraded both vehicles?

Nope…

And here’s why.

Consumer Reports announced on Friday that the Model S it owns had got the automatic emergency braking software update late on Thursday. However, there’s a catch. The feature only operates up to 28 miles per hour (45 km). On older Tesla’s (ones built prior to October 2016) this feature had an upper limit of 90 MPH.

Reuters states:

“The magazine (Consumer Reports) cited a statement from Tesla that “over the next several weeks” the car maker would increase the speed limit “until it is the most capable of any vehicle in the world. . . ."
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue May 02, 2017 9:33 am

Very marginal sales results for Tesla overall YTD (InsideEVs):

1. Annualized WW YTD (assumes 65% U.S.) is about 75k, which is about the same as for 2016.
2. Major U.S. monthly declines in both Model S&X unit sales of about 2K each over the March sales.

Where's Tesla's "savior" (Model E)?

mtndrew1
Posts: 174
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 9:52 am
Location: Gardena CA

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue May 02, 2017 12:07 pm

lorenfb wrote:Very marginal sales results for Tesla overall YTD (InsideEVs):

1. Annualized WW YTD (assumes 65% U.S.) is about 75k, which is about the same as for 2016.
2. Major U.S. monthly declines in both Model S&X unit sales of about 2K each over the March sales.

Where's Tesla's "savior" (Model E)?


You have made similar comments repeatedly despite all evidence that this is typical of Tesla's sales cycle.

March was the end of their quarter and, as such, they focused all their US deliveries in that period. This cycle has been going on since Tesla started selling cars abroad. The first month of the quarter they build and ship out the overseas products so that deliveries complete by the end of the same quarter. As the quarter draws to a close deliveries move closer and closer to Fremont, culminating in an end-of-quarter rush at the factory to get as many keys in buyers' hands as possible before the last day.

If I'm not mistaken their global quarterly year-over-year sales have increased every year since 2012.

An example of the US delivery cycle:

Q116
January: 1120
February: 1820
December: 5850

Q117
January: 1650
February: 2550
March: 6200

You often beat this drum of extrapolating Tesla's early-quarter deliveries into a doom and gloom forecast which never materializes. Each quarter that Tesla has been delivering vehicles since they launched the S in 2012 has been better than the equivalent previous-year's quarter up to and including the most recently reported Q117 where they delivered 69% more vehicles globally than Q116.

Naturally at some point the S/X demand will stabilize or soften as is the case with any platform that has been on sale for five years, but it hasn't happened yet and it looks like it's plausible that the 3 will launch on time to dovetail with any softening and will keep the delivery numbers climbing.

If past precedent is any indicator of your response you'll ignore all of this and make fun of my Kia instead.
2015 Kia Soul EV+

edatoakrun
Posts: 4443
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Delivery Date: 15 May 2011
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue May 02, 2017 12:26 pm

mtndrew1 wrote:...As the quarter draws to a close deliveries move closer and closer to Fremont, culminating in an end-of-quarter rush at the factory to get as many keys in buyers' hands as possible before the last day...

And the next day, when the bonuses, incentives, and overtime dry up, sales slow back down to a trickle again, until the next quarterly deadline...

Is that any war to run a company?

Why do TSLA investors put up with such immaturity in senior management?

Some might conclude that many of its shareholders are easily distracted by shiny objects...

Tesla earnings: It’s all about the Model 3 amid a record run for the stock

Tesla Inc. is scheduled to report first-quarter results after the market close on Wednesday, with Wall Street expecting a quarterly loss for the Silicon Valley car maker.

But don’t expect the market to pay too much attention to the actual numbers.

“The quarterly results are not anywhere nearly as important” as the tone company executives will strike during the conference call following results, said Rob Lutts, a portfolio manager with Cabot Wealth Management...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla- ... 2017-04-25
no condition is permanent

mtndrew1
Posts: 174
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 9:52 am
Location: Gardena CA

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue May 02, 2017 12:52 pm

edatoakrun wrote:
mtndrew1 wrote:...As the quarter draws to a close deliveries move closer and closer to Fremont, culminating in an end-of-quarter rush at the factory to get as many keys in buyers' hands as possible before the last day...

And the next day, when the bonuses, incentives, and overtime dry up, sales slow back down to a trickle again, until the next quarterly deadline...

Is that any war to run a company?

Why do TSLA investors put up with such immaturity in senior management?

Some might conclude that many of its shareholders are easily distracted by shiny objects...

Tesla earnings: It’s all about the Model 3 amid a record run for the stock

Tesla Inc. is scheduled to report first-quarter results after the market close on Wednesday, with Wall Street expecting a quarterly loss for the Silicon Valley car maker.

But don’t expect the market to pay too much attention to the actual numbers.

“The quarterly results are not anywhere nearly as important” as the tone company executives will strike during the conference call following results, said Rob Lutts, a portfolio manager with Cabot Wealth Management...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla- ... 2017-04-25


I wasn't responding to how they run their company, just that the way they deliver cars is both consistent and accomplishing increased deliveries in each successive period, year over year.

I'm not an investor and I don't drive one of their cars so I don't have a vested interest in how they handle their business operations.
2015 Kia Soul EV+

GetOffYourGas
Posts: 1500
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:56 pm
Delivery Date: 09 Mar 2012
Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue May 02, 2017 2:14 pm

lorenfb wrote:Very marginal sales results for Tesla overall YTD (InsideEVs):

1. Annualized WW YTD (assumes 65% U.S.) is about 75k, which is about the same as for 2016.
2. Major U.S. monthly declines in both Model S&X unit sales of about 2K each over the March sales.

Where's Tesla's "savior" (Model E)?


Why make this silly assumption? Let's look at actual sales numbers for the first quarter (since they are available):

Model S: 6,100 US / 13,450 worldwide. 45% US.
Model X: 4,300 US / 11,550 worldwide. 37% US.

Combined: 10,400 US / 25,000 worldwide. 42% US.

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
http://insideevs.com/in-march-tesla-left-other-plug-ins-in-the-dust-delivering-15000/

BTW, 25k in the first quarter is an annualized rate of 100k. And they will more than likely continue to grow production. It is not unreasonable to expect more like 125k for just the S/X.
~Brian

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lorenfb
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Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue May 02, 2017 3:06 pm

GetOffYourGas wrote:
lorenfb wrote:Very marginal sales results for Tesla overall YTD (InsideEVs):

1. Annualized WW YTD (assumes 65% U.S.) is about 75k, which is about the same as for 2016.
2. Major U.S. monthly declines in both Model S&X unit sales of about 2K each over the March sales.

Where's Tesla's "savior" (Model E)?


Why make this silly assumption? Let's look at actual sales numbers for the first quarter (since they are available):

Model S: 6,100 US / 13,450 worldwide. 45% US.
Model X: 4,300 US / 11,550 worldwide. 37% US.

Combined: 10,400 US / 25,000 worldwide. 42% US.

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
http://insideevs.com/in-march-tesla-left-other-plug-ins-in-the-dust-delivering-15000/

BTW, 25k in the first quarter is an annualized rate of 100k. And they will more than likely continue to grow production. It is not unreasonable to expect more like 125k for just the S/X.


As has been noted by others, the early Q1 numbers are skewed in favor of ROW sales because of Tesla's
"unique shipment strategy", i.e. atypical of most all responsibly run automotive OEMs. The more typical
overall annual Tesla sales distribution is closer to 65% U.S, e.g. CA alone has been about 30% of U.S. alone
with the majority here in SoCal.

Irrespective of the early Q1 numbers, i.e. where the focus is somewhat on ROW, the April U.S. numbers are
more overall representative of Tesla's ongoing sales trend, which appears to problematic for Tesla's future
cash flows.

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