edatoakrun
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Oct 03, 2017 11:34 am

The comment below puts the TSLA quarterly sales announcement in context.

Can TSLA begin to get the cash flow from tens of thousands of model 3 sales soon enough, in order to make a plausible pitch to sell more debt or equity before it burns through all the cash it has on hand?

On that point, the quarterly report will tell us much more than these sales figures have.

It should reveal what sort of discounts TSLA had to make on Ss and Xs, to move those extra few thousand vehicles.

Putting the 'S' In Tesla

By Liam Denning

Tesla's third-quarter deliveries were up slightly, year over year, and came in higher than production for the first time since late 2015

Given a somewhat patchy history when it comes to hitting targets or earnings forecasts, this will no doubt come as good news to many Tesla investors -- although, to be fair, they rarely display noticeable concern about such things.

Yet the bad news overshadows all this.The bad news concerns the Model 3, Tesla's cheaper vehicle launched in July. Only 260 of these were made in the third quarter, of which 220 were actually delivered.Only in August, the company expressed confidence it could produce more than 1,500 in the quarter (already a big downgrade to earlier targets)...

An extra five-or-six-thousand Model S and X deliveries is nice, but unlikely to make much difference to Tesla's ferocious rate of cash burn, forecast to be $1.6 billion for the second half, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg...

In August, Tesla expected to be producing 5,000 a week by the end of December. That implied an increase of 44 times the average weekly production rate of the third-quarter -- based on the old guidance, that is.

Using the actual numbers for the quarter just gone, the required ramp-up is now on the order of 250 times -- soaring, steep, sheer.

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articl ... in-s-curve
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finman100
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Oct 03, 2017 11:42 am

Keep trying! so entertaining...

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LTLFTcomposite
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:44 pm

Stock is up today, not down. People may be thinking if you can make 260 you can probably make 260,000, and if you can make 260,000...
LTL
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edatoakrun
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Oct 04, 2017 11:06 am

edatoakrun wrote:
...Can TSLA begin to get the cash flow from tens of thousands of model 3 sales soon enough, in order to make a plausible pitch to sell more debt or equity before it burns through all the cash it has on hand?

On that point, the quarterly report will tell us much more than these sales figures have.

It should reveal what sort of discounts TSLA had to make on Ss and Xs, to move those extra few thousand vehicles...

The comment below elaborates on my post RE TSLA's stagnant sales and accelerating cash burn diffficulties:

Tesla's Core Business Is Bleeding Cash And The Model 3 Is Not Speeding To The Rescue

...The agonizingly slow ramp-up of the Model 3 is not the biggest issue at Tesla. Cash burn is, and always will be. Automakers generate bushels of cash during periods of economic expansion by quickly ramping up production and then maintaining those levels while the economy allows. That's not happening at Tesla. After $1.4 billion in cash burn in the second quarter and $2.4 billion in the first half of 2017, the disappointing 3Q production/delivery numbers have convinced me that Tesla's cash burn will be at least $1.5 billion in the third quarter. But, will it be as high as $2 billion? Would that finally get the stock market's attention?

Tesla produced 25,076 units of its Model S and X in the third quarter versus 25,708 units produced in the second quarter. Tesla's production is not growing...

So, the facts were negative for Tesla today, but the stock price action was positive. It is not the first time this has happened. Regardless of one's belief in the future of autonomous mobility and Tesla's role therein, however, it's clear that this company is not growing quickly enough to generate positive cash flow at any time in the foreseeable future.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins ... e6d0304695

the comment below points out that TSLA's share price performance is not a distinct disease, but only a symptom of a widespread underlying syndrome of delusional valuations:

Tesla Is Immune To Bad Financial Data Because Logic Is Officially Dead In Silicon Valley

Who needs financial metrics when tech companies can offer you faith?


Late yesterday, Tesla Motors reported that it did not produce even close to the number of Model 3 cars that it predicted it would in the third fiscal quarter of 2017.

That is objectively not good news for Tesla. The company has put a staggeringly high amount of pressure on itself to increase production on the Model 3 with a speed that is literally unprecedented in the history of manufacturing. Essentially, Elon Musk has staked the future of his car company on the notion that he can make one million cars a year by 2020. Tesla made 83,922 in 2016… total...

This era of counterfactual thinking has now spread into almost every nook and cranny of our shared American brain, but if we’re going to start putting our money into it, Tesla can stop worrying about making more cars because there will be no one left who can afford them.

https://abovethelaw.com/2017/10/tesla-i ... lley/?rf=1
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palmermd
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:03 am

Here is an interesting article about Tesla.

[url]
http://www.thedrive.com/opinion/14818/w ... st-century
[/url]
Michael

Leaf since 31 March 2011
Driving electric since 1996


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hyperionmark
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:57 am

Still curious if any of you that are not a fan of Tesla are shorting the stock. That would be a true test of what you really think about the company. If you are, please let us know, as that gives much more weight to your posts IMO.

lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:33 pm

hyperionmark wrote:Still curious if any of you that are not a fan of Tesla are shorting the stock. That would be a true test of what you really think about the company. If you are, please let us know, as that gives much more weight to your posts IMO.


Not really! As has been posted before, wise traders, e.g. PUT buyers, CALL sellers, stock shorters, don't become
involved with stocks, e.g. Tesla, where the typical shareholders are irrational and the key shareholder lives in a dream world.

hyperionmark
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Oct 05, 2017 2:19 pm

lorenfb wrote:
hyperionmark wrote:Still curious if any of you that are not a fan of Tesla are shorting the stock. That would be a true test of what you really think about the company. If you are, please let us know, as that gives much more weight to your posts IMO.


Not really! As has been posted before, wise traders, e.g. PUT buyers, CALL sellers, stock shorters, don't become
involved with stocks, e.g. Tesla, where the typical shareholders are irrational and the key shareholder lives in a dream world.

Yep, because Elon lives in a dream world and hasn't ever actually created anything that he has dreamed up, right?

And if a trader is wise enough, he/she knows how to make money in any situation. You are using that as an excuse. I'm really wondering really what the real issue is. Why do you really hate Tesla and Elon so much? Please explain.

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jlv
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Oct 05, 2017 2:53 pm

I bought TSLA stock... and then later sold it at a nice profit. I'll drink to those irrational shareholders that made it possible and helped subsidize my S. (I wouldn't buy the stock *now*, though).
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lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:35 pm

jlv wrote:I bought TSLA stock... and then later sold it at a nice profit. I'll drink to those irrational shareholders that made it possible and helped subsidize my S. (I wouldn't buy the stock *now*, though).


Congrats! You are to be commended for your timing.

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