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dgpcolorado
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:50 am

jlv wrote:... (I wouldn't buy the stock *now*, though).
Nor would I. As a value investor I find speculative momentum stocks crazy. I do own a few shares as a "toy" — purchased at a much lower price — but they have no material impact on my portfolio. If speculators — both short and long — want to gamble on TSLA they are welcome to have at it!
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jlv
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:54 am

I actually keep hoping the Tesla deniers, naysayers, and bashers get their way so the stock drops back into my buy range, however.
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abasile
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Oct 06, 2017 12:43 pm

dgpcolorado wrote:As a value investor I find speculative momentum stocks crazy. I do own a few shares as a "toy" — purchased at a much lower price — but they have no material impact on my portfolio. If speculators — both short and long — want to gamble on TSLA they are welcome to have at it!

That's understandable. Given the current heights of the market, I've been incrementally pivoting toward "value" investments.

That said, I continue to believe that, while there are major risks, TSLA continues to have significant, long term upside potential and am holding some shares. I'll likely buy more if there's a substantial drop. (My last significant buy was at closer to $150/share.) Tesla's high level of vertical integration, Gigafactory, and Supercharger network are key differentiators, and we may yet see Tesla disrupt multiple industries. Funding this business is a worthwhile use of capital, in my opinion, even if the outcome turns out to be nothing more than accelerating the shifts toward sustainable energy and transportation.
2011 LEAF at 71K miles, pre-owned 2012 Tesla S 85 at 98K miles
LEAF battery: 9/12 bars and < 49 Ah (-28% vs. new)
Tesla battery: 250+ miles of range (-5% vs. new)

hyperionmark
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Oct 06, 2017 12:52 pm

abasile wrote:
dgpcolorado wrote:As a value investor I find speculative momentum stocks crazy. I do own a few shares as a "toy" — purchased at a much lower price — but they have no material impact on my portfolio. If speculators — both short and long — want to gamble on TSLA they are welcome to have at it!

That's understandable. Given the current heights of the market, I've been incrementally pivoting toward "value" investments.

That said, I continue to believe that, while there are major risks, TSLA continues to have significant, long term upside potential and am holding some shares. I'll likely buy more if there's a substantial drop. (My last significant buy was at closer to $150/share.) Tesla's high level of vertical integration, Gigafactory, and Supercharger network are key differentiators, and we may yet see Tesla disrupt multiple industries. Funding this business is a worthwhile use of capital, in my opinion, even if the outcome turns out to be nothing more than accelerating the shifts toward sustainable energy and transportation.

I agree wholeheartedly. They are doing things to change the world that no other company is. And many Tesla bears only look at their car segment and forget this is now a wide base energy company. And even though their car segment is largest it is comforting to know as a shareholder how diversified they are.

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Oct 07, 2017 4:26 am

The semi reveal is pushed off until November, presumably on account of the optics surrounding model 3 production challenges. PR solar initiatives won't face similar scrutiny.
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Oct 07, 2017 9:19 am

hyperionmark wrote:They are doing things to change the world that no other company is.


Really? Given your business acumen, can you please fully explain this.

hyperionmark wrote:And many Tesla bears only look at their car segment and forget this is now a wide base energy company.


And then explain how you can conclude this; "a wide base energy company".

hyperionmark wrote:And even though their car segment is largest it is comforting to know as a shareholder how diversified they are.


So they are "diversified", right? More insight, please.

Based on all the insightful stock analysis, you are either a management consultant, e.g. BAH - Boos Allen Hamilton,
or a stockbroker (Morgan Stanley), right? It's interesting that many on this forum have not expressed these views.
It seems you have an unique ability. Looking forward to more of your in-depth 'knowledge' on Tesla.

Hopefully, most of the TSLA short sellers will immediately cover their 'shorts' after reading your insightful post, right?

edatoakrun
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:27 pm

It's becoming quite a pissing contest, between Musk and the WSJ.

That's all you can read, without sending your buck to the Murdochs...

MARKETS HEARD ON THE STREET

The Truth Is Catching Up With Tesla

CEO Elon Musk is a visionary, but there is a fine line between setting aggressive goals and misleading shareholders


By Charley Grant
Oct. 7, 2017 2:02 p.m. ET

New revelations about Tesla Inc.’s production of the highly anticipated Model 3 sedan should shock, but not surprise, investors.

The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that Tesla has recently been building major portions of the Model 3 by hand. This comes less than a week after Tesla announced it fell short of its third-quarter production guidance of 1,500 cars by more than 80%...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-truth- ... 1507399374
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abasile
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sun Oct 08, 2017 8:21 am

Considering that Elon Musk has been speaking of "production hell" for a few months now, I don't find it at all surprising that Model 3 production is delayed. Musk's timelines have generally represented best case scenarios involving optimal execution by all parties. As the intention was to keep the Model 3 relatively simple and to stay on schedule, I expect the Model 3 will be delayed by only weeks or months, rather than by years like the Model X.

As a consumer, I wish that Tesla's public timelines could be more conservative and thus accurate. However, it seems that, by creating very aggressive, public deadlines, Musk feels that he can motivate his employees to push harder and achieve more. This makes sense to me, because if the goal is to provoke intense focus and achievement, there's nothing like a critical mission with tight deadlines.

There's really no question that Tesla has remained on the vanguard of EVs. For those who desire the capabilities of the Model 3 in the $35K - $60K price range, there is still no competition (aside from used Model S cars). Well, there's the Chevy Bolt and the upcoming 60 kWh LEAF, but not if you want long distance capabilities or high-end looks.

Once the market has matured and multiple OEMs are selling EVs that can fully replace ICE vehicles, and once Tesla Energy products have become more mainstream, it may make sense for Musk to scale back his role at Tesla and let a more traditional chief executive take over. I hope that Tesla survives the transition from upstart automaker to mature, diversified company. Even if it doesn't, I expect that the Tesla brand and Supercharger network will carry on in the hands of another corporation.

Also, for what it's worth, I had mixed feelings on the SolarCity acquisition. I believe it was essentially a bailout and that SolarCity had serious issues. On the other hand, I think that it was strategic for Tesla and has long term benefits - the only question is whether TSLA shareholders paid too much for SCTY. Tesla Energy has a great deal of promise and it really does make sense to have solar and batteries under one roof, installed for customers as integrated systems. In the future, we should also see more integration between home/commercial solar PV and EV charging, whereby EVs plugged in during the day should be able to soak up "excess" solar production.
2011 LEAF at 71K miles, pre-owned 2012 Tesla S 85 at 98K miles
LEAF battery: 9/12 bars and < 49 Ah (-28% vs. new)
Tesla battery: 250+ miles of range (-5% vs. new)

hyperionmark
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sun Oct 08, 2017 8:29 am

abasile wrote:Considering that Elon Musk has been speaking of "production hell" for a few months now, I don't find it at all surprising that Model 3 production is delayed. Musk's timelines have generally represented best case scenarios involving optimal execution by all parties. As the intention was to keep the Model 3 relatively simple and to stay on schedule, I expect the Model 3 will be delayed by only weeks or months, rather than by years like the Model X.

As a consumer, I wish that Tesla's public timelines could be more conservative and thus accurate. However, it seems that, by creating very aggressive, public deadlines, Musk feels that he can motivate his employees to push harder and achieve more. This makes sense to me, because if the goal is to provoke intense focus and achievement, there's nothing like a critical mission with tight deadlines.

There's really no question that Tesla has remained on the vanguard of EVs. For those who desire the capabilities of the Model 3 in the $35K - $60K price range, there is still no competition (aside from used Model S cars). Well, there's the Chevy Bolt and the upcoming 60 kWh LEAF, but not if you want long distance capabilities or high-end looks.

Once the market has matured and multiple OEMs are selling EVs that can fully replace ICE vehicles, and once Tesla Energy products have become more mainstream, it may make sense for Musk to scale back his role at Tesla and let a more traditional chief executive take over. I hope that Tesla survives the transition from upstart automaker to mature, diversified company. Even if it doesn't, I expect that the Tesla brand and Supercharger network will carry on in the hands of another corporation.

Also, for what it's worth, I had mixed feelings on the SolarCity acquisition. I believe it was essentially a bailout and that SolarCity had serious issues. On the other hand, I think that it was strategic for Tesla and has long term benefits - the only question is whether TSLA shareholders paid too much for SCTY. Tesla Energy has a great deal of promise and it really does make sense to have solar and batteries under one roof, installed for customers as integrated systems. In the future, we should also see more integration between home/commercial solar PV and EV charging, whereby EVs plugged in during the day should be able to soak up "excess" solar production.

I wish we could "like" posts on this forum. Consider this one "liked."

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sun Oct 08, 2017 9:37 am

hyperionmark wrote:
abasile wrote:Considering that Elon Musk has been speaking of "production hell" for a few months now, I don't find it at all surprising that Model 3 production is delayed. Musk's timelines have generally represented best case scenarios involving optimal execution by all parties. As the intention was to keep the Model 3 relatively simple and to stay on schedule, I expect the Model 3 will be delayed by only weeks or months, rather than by years like the Model X.

As a consumer, I wish that Tesla's public timelines could be more conservative and thus accurate. However, it seems that, by creating very aggressive, public deadlines, Musk feels that he can motivate his employees to push harder and achieve more. This makes sense to me, because if the goal is to provoke intense focus and achievement, there's nothing like a critical mission with tight deadlines.

There's really no question that Tesla has remained on the vanguard of EVs. For those who desire the capabilities of the Model 3 in the $35K - $60K price range, there is still no competition (aside from used Model S cars). Well, there's the Chevy Bolt and the upcoming 60 kWh LEAF, but not if you want long distance capabilities or high-end looks.

Once the market has matured and multiple OEMs are selling EVs that can fully replace ICE vehicles, and once Tesla Energy products have become more mainstream, it may make sense for Musk to scale back his role at Tesla and let a more traditional chief executive take over. I hope that Tesla survives the transition from upstart automaker to mature, diversified company. Even if it doesn't, I expect that the Tesla brand and Supercharger network will carry on in the hands of another corporation.

Also, for what it's worth, I had mixed feelings on the SolarCity acquisition. I believe it was essentially a bailout and that SolarCity had serious issues. On the other hand, I think that it was strategic for Tesla and has long term benefits - the only question is whether TSLA shareholders paid too much for SCTY. Tesla Energy has a great deal of promise and it really does make sense to have solar and batteries under one roof, installed for customers as integrated systems. In the future, we should also see more integration between home/commercial solar PV and EV charging, whereby EVs plugged in during the day should be able to soak up "excess" solar production.

I wish we could "like" posts on this forum. Consider this one "liked."


Ditto!
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