DaveinOlyWA
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sun Nov 26, 2017 11:11 am

well, we could do rumors.

Rumor has it that Musk earned so much confidence in the BIG money crowd that he has a HUGE line of credit at his disposal at any time.

This I can see. There is a reason why Tesla spends money like the federal government and that is because they have a safety net but its not even really that, its simply a hidden foundation that we will likely never know the strength and reach of.

You think they survive on car sales because I don't see that happening... EVER. But this trucking thing? That is a gold mine!
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 deceased. 29,413 miles. 2018 S40; 11,987 miles, 485 GIDs, 37.6 kwh 110.89 Ahr , SOH 96.00, Hx 115.22
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edatoakrun
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Nov 27, 2017 11:21 am

Tesliacs are starting to defend TSLA's impending financial collapse as a noble lost cause.

Not an uncommon occurrence, to those who cannot come to terms with the greed and selfishness that led to their own failure.

In praise of Tesla’s bankruptcy

...A lot of people think bankruptcy looms in Tesla’s future. Of course, Tesla bears have been saying this for years, and they’ve consistently been wrong — but this time, are they right?

Maybe; maybe not. Either way, a far more interesting question, if (like me) you have no financial interest in the business’s success or failure, is: does it matter?

I’m entirely serious. We tend to assume that a company’s purpose is to make money for its shareholders, or at least “not go bankrupt,” because money is how we measure success. And this is in fact true of most companies. But it is not true of Tesla. “When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure,” and this is as true of money as it is of any other measure. The purpose of Tesla is not to make money; it is to pioneer fleets of smart mass-market electric cars, and the infrastructure to support them, and battery technology which is not limited to cars. Making money is ancillary...

https://techcrunch.com/2017/11/26/in-pr ... ankruptcy/

DaveinOlyWA wrote:...Rumor has it that Musk earned so much confidence in the BIG money crowd that he has a HUGE line of credit at his disposal at any time...

If anyone with money had any confidence in TSLA, its bonds would not be trading today as low-grade junk.

DaveinOlyWA wrote:...this trucking thing? That is a gold mine!...

The idiocy of the TSLA Semi program belongs on it's own thread, IMO.
no condition is permanent

hyperionmark
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Nov 28, 2017 5:09 am

Weak minded drivel like the rest of the stuff you post. You seem like you have a real good grasp on financial matters. Please tell us what you do for a living. hahaha

palmermd
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Nov 28, 2017 1:51 pm

https://teslamotorsclub.com/blog/2017/1 ... ot-method/

nice article about Tesla/Musk and timelines. I like this quote
Patrick0101 wrote:Seeking Alpha writer, Trent Eady, said it well when he wrote, “If Musk promises you the moon in six months and delivers it in three years, keep things in perspective: you’ve got the moon.”
Michael

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GRA
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Nov 28, 2017 5:55 pm

edatoakrun wrote:Tesliacs are starting to defend TSLA's impending financial collapse as a noble lost cause..

Actually, plenty of people have been saying that for a year or two now. After all, Tesla has more or less single-handedly made the rest of the auto industry take BEVs seriously, by building a compelling car that non-EV enthusiasts could desire along with the charging infrastructure to support it, and they're well along the way to achieving their ultimate goal:
Our goal when we created Tesla a decade ago was the same as it is today: to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible.
Whether or not Tesla itself survives as a company and manages to introduce mass market cars, mass market BEVs undoubtedly will arrive, largely thanks to them demonstrating what could be done.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

webb14leafs
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Dec 01, 2017 10:49 am

I am a Leaf owner who will NOT be buying a Tesla any time soon, but I follow the company because I’m very interested in the industry as a whole. I used to think that Tesla could not possibly justify their valuation, and that their entire business was an inevitable failure. Now, I’m thinking much, much differently. People focus too much on Market Cap and Cash Burn - the two main criticisms of the company. After looking closer at the numbers, they seem like less of a red flag.
Think about the number of cars Tesla will eventually sell per year. Given the global sales of the BMW 3-series, Mercedes C-Class, and Audi A4, it is not unreasonable to expect the model 3 to consistently sell 400K-500K units per year. If you take these sales alone and project their sales margins out a few years, the market cap doesn’t look so bad, AND the current cash burn becomes irrelevant. It’s fair to say that the current margins cannot be maintained, but it’s just as fair to point to Apple and Porsche and say, “Oh yes they can.” Brand Power is everything, and Tesla has it. If they add a few more models to their lineup and simply compete with their segment peers across all models, they will easily justify their market cap.
This isn’t even considering the possibility that Tesla eventually creates a cheaper nameplate. As battery price comes down and EVs become more mainstream, Tesla will want a piece of the sub-$25K market. There’s at least a strong chance that they could compete very well with whatever EVs VW, Toyota and the Big 3 put out in 2025.
Now, let’s talk about Tesla’s other businesses. Solar - okay let’s not talk about that one -but let’s do talk about energy storage. I work in the energy industry and I get the feeling that the average person has no idea how big this technology is, and how much it will BOOM over the next 10 years. As large fossil and nuclear plants are shuddered the grid will need to be stabilized. The only way to do this is with energy storage, and regardless of the capital cost it is CHEAP!!!!! compared to most utility expenditures. This doesn’t even consider home storage, which may or may not be a huge industry as well. Either way Tesla at least competes in these markets, and very possibly dominates them.
Just my thoughts, and would love some thoughtful counter-points. I’m not a genius.

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jlv
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:06 pm

This article was posted above but some of you may not have read it. It is actually *not* an article arguing about why Tesla must be a failure. It's basically saying that if they fail, it won't matter, because "whether or not they are making money, they are succeeding at their purpose."

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edatoakrun
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:57 pm

The existential TSLA question?

How long can a car company survive, if it never learns how to build cars efficiently in the first place?

Build fast, fix later: speed hurts quality at Tesla, some workers say

...After Tesla’s Model S sedans and Model X SUVs roll off the company’s Fremont, California assembly line, the electric vehicles usually make another stop - for repairs, nine current and former employees have told Reuters.

The luxury cars regularly require fixes before they can leave the factory, according to the workers. Quality checks have routinely revealed defects in more than 90 percent of Model S and Model X vehicles inspected after assembly, these individuals said, citing figures from Tesla’s internal tracking system as recently as October...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesl ... SKBN1DT0N3

The very low productivity of TSLA's operations, resulting in huge financial losses and poor quality have been tolerated by shareholders and high-priced car buyers so far, but how do you scale labor-intensive hand-built production processes with a vehicle that are claimed to be available (eventually) at a "more affordable" price, only ~$35,000?

Tesla's Production Problems Are The Company's Achilles' Heel

...I often wondered how it is possible for Tesla to burn so much cash while making only luxury cars--the Model S and Model X--and the Reuters story--quoting recently fired Tesla employees--opened a window on that process. The extensive re-work referenced in the article just should not be occurring now, especially since the Model S is entering its sixth year of production.

Some elements of the car buying public like to fall for the "it was made by hand" rhetoric for luxury models, but I can confirm that no automaker in the world aims for less automation, not more. This is especially true as one goes up the curve in terms of volume, and that is the problem facing Tesla now.

The company has shown no evidence that it can produce luxury cars at a proper linespeed and now it is attempting to build a mass-market vehicle, the Model 3...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins ... 81e94a71a2
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GetOffYourGas
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Dec 01, 2017 1:21 pm

edatoakrun wrote:how do you scale labor-intensive hand-built production processes with a vehicle that are claimed to be available (eventually) at a "more affordable" price, only ~$35,000?


You don't. And they never planned to. A year from now, no Model 3s will be hand-built. They will buzz off the line after being assembled by a swarm of robots. Yet you will be on to your next rant, and probably still won't even realize how absurd this claim is.
~Brian

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edatoakrun
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Dec 01, 2017 1:23 pm

GRA wrote:...Whether or not Tesla itself survives as a company and manages to introduce mass market cars, mass market BEVs undoubtedly will arrive, largely thanks to them demonstrating what could be done.

TSLA has never built any "mass market BEVs", as defined by relatively high production levels and low price, and may never build any.

I am one of millions of drivers world-wide who actually do drive "mass-market BEVs", in my case since early 2011.

I doubt the large majority of those who drive BEVS were significantly influenced by TSLA, even if they, like many misguided ICEV drivers, see some achievement in TSLA's failures.

I don't see how it is possible find any plausible rational counterfactual argument that the billions of dollars flushed down TSLA these many years could not have been far more productively invested in BEV production, under more competent management.
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