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LTLFTcomposite
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Mar 26, 2018 11:32 am

300 looks like a support level getting tested
LTL
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edatoakrun
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Mar 26, 2018 1:32 pm

Why only a fool would say that the model 3's production failure doesn't matter much in terms of TSLA's long range prospects of avoiding insolvency:

For Tesla, Cars + Cash + Credit + Convertibles = Crunch Time

Without faster Model 3 production, Elon Musk's money machine will run low on juice.

Opinions differ on the exact nature of Tesla, ranging from struggling car manufacturer to tech pioneer to something akin to the second coming. Regardless, it is undoubtedly one thing: a money machine.

I don't mean that in the sense of Tesla making a lot of money; more that it is a machine for the raising and consumption of money...

Which is why these four charts deserve more than a glance from even the most ardent Muskovite...

Tesla's money machine will almost certainly need to raise more this year due to the Model 3's problems -- but those same problems undermine the pitch for selling more equity or debt...

Cranking up the money machine depends on cranking up that production line. And given Tesla's mounting burdens, that needs to happen soon.

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articl ... ash-crunch

With under 300 vehicle sales in Norway in total the last two months, it sounds like TSLA has truly pathetic local capacity...

http://ev-sales.blogspot.ch/2018/03/nor ... -2018.html

cwerdna wrote:Elon Musk directs Tesla to 'slow down' on Norway deliveries this quarter, citing local capacity issues
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/24/elon-mu ... ssues.html
no condition is permanent

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Nubo
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Mar 26, 2018 2:51 pm

LTLFTcomposite wrote:In related news, Musk shuns Facebook.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/23/elon-mu ... ounts.html


"Musk says he has never used Facebook.". Hey, me neither. I must be some kind of genius! :mrgreen:
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

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LTLFTcomposite
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Mar 26, 2018 5:15 pm

I still think Silicon valley will circle the wagons in a worst case scenario. Could be a lot of equity holders pretty much wiped out in the process though. I would guess debt is comparatively safe though, in a bankruptcy warranty claims get all intertwined with bondholders, and the brand is too heavily dependent on its fanbois for that.
LTL
White 2012 SV delivered 10 Dec 2011 returned 25 Nov 2014 replaced with stopgap ICE Sentra
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2013 Volt replaced after 36 months/30k miles with ICE Rogue
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lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Mar 27, 2018 7:18 am

A rational perspective from a Tesla “bull”:

I have been bullish on Tesla for a long time, have been long its stock for most of the time throughout the last five years, and I continue to think that Tesla will be worth significantly more five years from now. But in the short term, there are some clear concerns that could cause some volatility to transpire in Tesla's shares.


Tesla (TSLA) is an extraordinarily innovative company that has achieved amazing results in several sectors in a relatively short time frame. Let's face it, if it weren't for Tesla, EVs would still be limited to the likes of the Leaf and the Prius. The company also has achieved some remarkable feats in power generation and energy storage. Tesla is a company that looks to the future and shows us that things could be done smarter, more efficiently, and better than the current status quo can offer. But despite Tesla's drive to continuously move forward and push the envelope on what's possible, the company remains plagued by numerous problems.


Unfortunately, so far, the production process has proven to be anything but highly efficient and profitable. And the longer Tesla continues to struggle with various "bottlenecks," automation issues, and other problems associated with the Model 3 assembly, it will continue to burn through cash at an alarming pace. What's Tesla's gross margin on the Model 3 right now? Once again, the exact number remains a mystery, but judging by the company's recent performance and estimates, gross margin on the Model 3 is close to zero, low single digits, or possibly even negative in a worst-case scenario.

When will Model 3 production improve to where the company is producing a profit, or is at least close to producing a profit on the vehicle? This too remains a mystery, but it must happen relatively soon if Tesla is to remain a viable business enterprise. My optimistic view is that the company will have most of the Model 3 issues figured out by the end of this year and will have a Model 3 gross margin close to 20% by early 2019.


https://seekingalpha.com/article/415888 ... ter-widget

cwerdna
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Mar 27, 2018 9:56 am

Tesla is just months from a total collapse, says hedge-fund manager
https://www.marketwatch.com/Story/tesla ... 2018-03-27
Unless Elon Musk “pulls a rabbit out of his hat,” Tesla will be bankrupt within four months, says John Thompson of Vilas Capital Management.

“Companies eventually have to make a profit, and I don’t ever see that happening here,” he told MarketWatch. “This is one of the worst income statements I’ve ever seen and between the story and the financials, the financials will win out in this case.”

Thompson manages $25 million and his Tesla TSLA, -4.07% short is the fund’s biggest position...

Elon Musk shows off Tesla pulling a 250,000-pound load
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/27/elon-mu ... -load.html

As usual, the above is another example about the company being about hype.
LTLFTcomposite wrote:300 looks like a support level getting tested

Indeed. Stock's at around $290 now.

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LTLFTcomposite
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Mar 27, 2018 12:05 pm

cwerdna wrote:
LTLFTcomposite wrote:300 looks like a support level getting tested

Indeed. Stock's at around $290 now.

280 is in jeopardy now. Hard to imagine this is all about that one crash. Looks like inside info on production rates and the outlook on their viability as an ongoing concern.
LTL
White 2012 SV delivered 10 Dec 2011 returned 25 Nov 2014 replaced with stopgap ICE Sentra
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LTLFTcomposite
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Mar 27, 2018 4:57 pm

Bond rating cut after the bell, that's probably most of what drive it down today.
LTL
White 2012 SV delivered 10 Dec 2011 returned 25 Nov 2014 replaced with stopgap ICE Sentra
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GRA
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Mar 27, 2018 7:29 pm

After hours trading shows a low of $274.50 now.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

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EatsShootsandLeafs
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Mar 27, 2018 7:45 pm

cwerdna wrote:Indeed. Stock's at around $290 now.
Closed at $279, $275 after hours.

But support levels and all this technical analysis are total garbage anyway.

Tesla is clearly overvalued. People keep saying it's not because Amazon followed a similar model. Except it didn't. When was amazon losing as much money as Tesla? Never.

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