cwerdna
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Mar 27, 2018 10:14 pm

EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:But support levels and all this technical analysis are total garbage anyway.

LOL! That's the main thing I care about when it comes to stocks, ETFs and indices. Support and resistance are very real. Often, stocks fall to support and bounce off them. They often top out at resistance, until they break thru. Often, a former support level can become resistance, etc.

I don't know candlestick patterns at all (too much to memorize) and I'm not real good at recognizing stuff like head and shoulders, inverted head and shoulders, cup and handle, etc.

Fibonacci retracements seem like TOTAL voodoo, until you use some tools and draw them on charts to see how scarily well it works.

Channels often make sense.

If you use good enough tools (e.g. Thinkorswim https://www.tdameritrade.com/tools-and- ... tures.page) and learn some basic technical analysis, draw some lines to reflect what you've learned (and it saves them on a per symbol basis), you'll see what I mean. I wish I knew all this 20 years ago.

But yeah, part of the joke is that technical analysis works, until it doesn't.
EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:Tesla is clearly overvalued.

I care very little about fundamentals or as CBW (technician on CNBC) calls them "funnymentals". One can do a lot of research and calculation and it can mean squat. Someone opens their mouth and it can move a stock, big time or cause a long-term trend. Clearly, TSLA and MANY other stocks trade at prices and on a basis that have NOTHING to do w/fundamentals (e.g. P/E ratio, PEG, free cash flow, etc.), esp. momentum stocks like TSLA.

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Mar 28, 2018 8:02 am

It's getting ugly. Credit ratings are one of the great self-perpetuating ironies of life, the more someone is perceived as being a risk to not repay the higher their borrowing costs, further contributing to the likelihood they will be unable to repay.
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Mar 28, 2018 8:19 am

That oughta make some shorts happy...
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Mar 28, 2018 9:09 am

I don't have a clue how this is going to end. If I did, I would either buy or short. Other than some tiny amount through index fund, don't have a real stake.

Remember the Model S ramp? Tesla got down to less than a month's worth a cash before the production was worked out.

Musk has bet the company, and the dice are bouncing. Snake eyes or natural?
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lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Mar 28, 2018 9:37 am

RegGuheert wrote:That oughta make some shorts happy...


You didn't need to be a short seller to be happy today. If you like to gamble a little and last week you bought an April $300 TSLA PUT for
approximately $20 when TSLA was around $300, today you could sell the PUT for about $45+. Shorting 100 shares of TSLA with 50%
margin would cost about $15K. That $15K could buy 750 PUTs. Buying back the 100 shares of the short would develop a profit of
about $4K. The selling the PUTs today would yield a net profit of about $19K. When considering the commissions on the trades,
obviously a little less profit would result.
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edatoakrun
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Mar 28, 2018 11:50 am

Not a good omen for a company like TSLA, weighed down with a huge debt position it needs to refinance:

A Terrible Tuesday for Tesla's Stock, But Watch the Bonds

Fixed-income investors are suddenly less sanguine about the risks.


Tesla had a pretty terrible Tuesday, all things considered.

News emerged that the National Transportation Safety Board is investigating a fire involving a Model X that crashed in California last week. Meanwhile, rival Jaguar Land Rover announced it was teaming up with Alphabet Inc.'s Waymo unit to get the drop on autonomous electric vehicles.

This may have contributed to an 8 percent drop in Tesla Inc.'s stock, its worst decline since ... last month, when it reported underwhelming fourth-quarter results.

But the most interesting aspect of Tuesday's selloff was what happened with Tesla's bonds. Because while burning vehicles and rival robo-cars are problems, the real issue with Tesla is always the same: How to fund it.

Tesla's benchmark issue maturing in 2025 slumped by 3.6 percent -- which sounds small, but everything's a bigger deal in bond-land. It was easily the biggest one-day drop since the bonds were issued last August, taking the yield to 7.18 percent. That's a very important number for two reasons.

First, it's a spread of more than 440 basis points to the benchmark Treasury bond -- the highest yet for Tesla's issue:

Second, but more importantly, that spread pushes Tesla past its peers -- and not in a good way...

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articl ... -the-bonds
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:16 pm

Time for Apple to buy Tesla?
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EVDRIVER
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:31 pm

iPlug wrote:Time for Apple to buy Tesla?



I would rather see it fold. I'm sure there would be better contenders. I would never drive a Tesla if it were owned by Apple.
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LTLFTcomposite
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Mar 28, 2018 5:59 pm

EVDRIVER wrote:
iPlug wrote:Time for Apple to buy Tesla?



I would rather see it fold. I'm sure there would be better contenders. I would never drive a Tesla if it were owned by Apple.

If it does fold expect another decade at least to go by before seeing any significant growth in EVs. Other mfrs half-hearted offerings will quietly fall by the wayside because of "lack of consumer interest".

BTW shouldn't that be "was owned by Apple"? I thought the subjunctive mood only applied to things that really are impossible (If I were a werewolf, If lorenfb were a Tesla shareholder)
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EatsShootsandLeafs
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Mar 28, 2018 6:24 pm

EVDRIVER wrote:
iPlug wrote:Time for Apple to buy Tesla?



I would rather see it fold. I'm sure there would be better contenders. I would never drive a Tesla if it were owned by Apple.
If Apple bought Tesla at least the screen would work https://seekingalpha.com/article/415930 ... as-model-3

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