Rebel44
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Mar 03, 2017 2:10 pm

lorenfb wrote:http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

Tesla's combined U.S. Model S & X YTD sales were only 4200 (WW est. - 6500) for 2017, which when
annualized (6 X 6500) is at about 1/2 the run rate of the total WW 2016 sales of 76K.


Are you trolling or just reading first Tesla sales report ever?

First and most of second month in a quarter Tesla concentrates on building cars for export markets and in 3rd (plus end of 2nd month) month it concentrates on cars for US market.

It has been this way for years.....

Rebel44
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Mar 03, 2017 2:16 pm

lorenfb wrote:
Summary
As Autopilot related accidents pile up the cost of ownership and the cost of insurance are going up. Insurers are pulling back and we expect the problem to become worse.
US and China drove growth for Tesla in 2016. We see both of these markets becoming challenging in 2017.
Reducing Tesla 2017 unit forecast to address these trends - we may see the first negative growth year for Tesla.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4051882-tesla-may-face-negative-growth-2017-insurance-troubles-mount-china-ev-sales-suffer?source=email_rt_article_readmore&auth_param=1adagi:1cbj7vl:11f8506772d12a5d9af63241d050337b&uprof=44&dr=1


Article lacks any data about AP accident rate. Insurance companies base premiums on statistics - not based on car makers media attention....

lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Mar 03, 2017 2:47 pm

Rebel44 wrote:First and most of second month in a quarter Tesla concentrates on building cars for export markets and in 3rd (plus end of 2nd month) month it concentrates on cars for US market.

It has been this way for years.....


Hardly indicative of an automotive company that's capable of being competitive and profitable long term,
i.e. what happens when the Model 3 (????) potentially arrives? By the way, where's the metric that would
would indicate a backlog of U.S. unfilled sales orders? If this were the case, I'm sure Elon would report it, right?

Rebel44
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Mar 03, 2017 2:59 pm

lorenfb wrote:
Rebel44 wrote:First and most of second month in a quarter Tesla concentrates on building cars for export markets and in 3rd (plus end of 2nd month) month it concentrates on cars for US market.

It has been this way for years.....


Hardly indicative of an automotive company that's capable of being competitive and profitable long term,
i.e. what happens when the Model 3 (????) potentially arrives? By the way, where's the metric that would
would indicate a backlog of U.S. unfilled sales orders? If this were the case, I'm sure Elon would report it, right?


Its an indicatinve of a company that doesnt yet produce enough cars to easily by itself fill whole ships for each export destination every month....

And you can confirm this by looking at tesla historical US sales data
http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ - if you scroll down a bit you will see that quaters 3rd monts always have a lot more Tesla sales in USA than first 2 months of that quarter.

This is neither a rocket science, nor anything new.

GRA
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Mar 03, 2017 4:42 pm

OTOH, AP 2.0 is demonstrably even less road-worthy at the moment than AP1.0 was, as various videos have shown. See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZ1XLqc5IUg and especially https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYav3_7miIc&feature=youtu.be

for examples, not to mention http://www.autoblog.com/2017/03/03/tesla-autopilot-barrier-crash/. It beats the hell out of me why Tesla would release software in such an obviously inadequate state to the public. Show those videos to a jury after an accident, and the only question is how far Tesla will have to bend over.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Mar 04, 2017 9:44 am

Rebel44 wrote:
Its an indicatinve of a company that doesnt yet produce enough cars to easily by itself fill whole ships for each export destination every month....



Sounds like a marginal company with poor planning that can't solve simple logistics problems!

lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Mar 04, 2017 9:48 am

Summary
There's a new Tesla scandal brewing.
Tesla, which once used OTA updates to improve customers' cars, has now crossed the Rubicon.
Customers can no longer be sure an OTA update won't be carrying undisclosed updates seeking to reduce Tesla's liabilities.

My bearish thesis on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is simple: A capital-intensive enterprise running at a loss even while having the high-end EV market it sells into all to itself. Once true competition arrives (starting mostly in 2018, though the Bolt already shows a proper EV powertrain), Tesla will see even lower margins than the ones it enjoys today. Given this dynamic, Tesla will have bankruptcy risk in a competitive EV environment.
This article, however, is about a different development. I'd gather that most investors, even most of its bullish fans, don't follow Tesla close enough to know of all the new developments. There was, once, a tiny scandal where Tesla ended up having to settle with Norwegian customers because of having made what turned out to be unrealistic horsepower claims. That, along with other smaller issues like using different calculation methods for the 0-60 mph times, gracefully fell by the wayside.
However, there's a new scandal brewing whose implications might be far larger. Let me give you some context.


http://seekingalpha.com/article/4034054-new-tesla-scandal-brewing

edatoakrun
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Mar 04, 2017 10:07 am

TSLA's projected Model 3 production timeline looks to be slipping from exceedingly unlikely, to impossible, IMO:

Tesla may not have a Model 3 beta test car on the road yet
With deliveries slated to begin in mid-2017, there was no tester at the end of 2016.


A few hundred-thousand folks who have been waiting impatiently for their preordered Tesla Model 3 might see this as a bad sign: Tesla, in a stock filing with the feds, reported that at year-end 2016, it had not put a Model 3 beta test car on the road.

That was as of two-plus months ago, of course. There may well be a prototype running around out there at this very moment, built from - and being used to test - factory production parts. In early February, the company said it would begin pilot production of a few Model 3s on Feb. 20, and presumably a beta car or cars would be chosen from that run. But keep in mind the company reiterated late last month that it intends to begin producing Model 3s in July - and that's right around the corner.

The beta-car mention in the annual filing with the Security and Exchange Commission is the second cautionary sign this week, after a Goldman Sachs analyst said the company is unlikely to meet its summer production goal and he downgraded the automaker's stock to "sell."

The California-based electric-vehicle maker reiterated in its investors note last week that Model 3 vehicles would start rolling off the production line as soon as July. Tesla said it would be producing 5,000 Model 3 vehicles a week by the end of the year and will double that pace to an annualized rate of more than a half-million Model 3 vehicles by the end of 2018...

http://www.autoblog.com/2017/03/03/tesl ... to00000015

And it's not just production workers who seem to be stressed by Musk's demands that they do the impossible:

At Tesla, Departures Mount at a Critical Time

Tesla Inc. is losing key personnel as it races to bring the Model 3 -- its most critical electric sedan yet -- to market later this year.

Chief Financial Officer Jason Wheeler’s impending departure, announced just 15 months after he joined Tesla from Google, will be the latest in a raft of largely under-the-radar exits. Former executives, who spoke on the condition they not be identified, cited a range of reasons for their exits over the past year, including long hours in the rush to high-volume production, mission creep, and a tense culture that reflects their visionary but indefatigable chief executive officer, Elon Musk.

“Tesla looks like a company that is getting stretched to the limit,” said Dave Sullivan, an analyst at industry researcher AutoPacific Inc. “The pressure of getting out the Model 3 is getting to everybody, from the people on the factory floor to the people at the top.”...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -the-limit
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jlv
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Mar 06, 2017 8:21 am

edatoakrun wrote:
A few hundred-thousand folks who have been waiting impatiently for their preordered Tesla Model 3
I think the 400K people with pre-orders are waiting quite patiently.

That said, this year will be definitely be a trying time for Tesla.
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LTLFTcomposite
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Mar 09, 2017 11:08 am

Interesting story, lightly seasoned with a grain of salt

“Let them go to Tesla, they will be back in short order,” said an industry source with deep knowledge of Toyota and its customers.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/bertelschm ... 200eb61680
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