lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Aug 01, 2017 6:55 pm

mtndrew1 wrote:
Overall Elon seems to be going the Amazon route of running the business and I expect we'll see massive growth in 2018 forward provided they can weather the next six months. It's going to be fun to watch.


A stretch, trying to compare Elon/Tesla to Jeff/Amazon, i.e. can't compare a long term OEM auto business model to that of Amazon's. Without the SCs (easy to replicate), Tesla has no key advantage, i.e. its technology is not unique nor totally
propriety like was Apple's with the iPhone, e.g. the apps and phone integration.

Remember, Tesla missed their guidance in 2016 and in the next 5 months Tesla needs to deliver basically what
they delivered for all of 2016 - 70K units to achieve their 2017 guidance of 110K.

mtndrew1 wrote:Stationary storage could certainly be a surprise revenue source going forward and is much quicker to deploy and recognize revenue on than an automobile.


Totally insignificant! Try again.

lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Aug 01, 2017 7:07 pm

Zythryn wrote:My guess is willful ignorance, but I still haven't figured out quite why.


Right, so start with an ad hominem!

Zythryn wrote:Loren seems to celebrate the sales numbers the first month of each quarter's month over month sales, but ignores the phenomenal results of the third month of the quarter when by the same measurement, sales are fantastic.

And while I agree with him that past results don't necessarily indicate future results. He doesn't go deeper than the numbers to look at why the numbers are the way they are.
If the underlying factors are understood, then it is pretty easy to understand that when the same underlying factors are present, similar results are likely.


My analysis was just based on simple calculations from published financial data. Don't like mine, then where is your analysis? You have access to the same data.

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Aug 02, 2017 11:26 am

TSLA earnings and CC to follow this afternoon.

Conventional wisdom and/or idiocy:

Tesla earnings: Will Model 3 live up to the hype?

What quarterly losses? Wall Street to zero in on production timeline


Tesla Inc. is scheduled to report second-quarter results after the market close on Wednesday.

Wall Street expects another loss for Silicon Valley company, but that is unlikely to matter much. The real burning questions are the ones about the Model 3...

Here’s what to expect:

Earnings: Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect Tesla to report a loss of $2.39 a share in the second quarter, which would compare with a loss of $2.09 a share in the second quarter of 2016. The company is expected to report an adjusted loss of $1.88 a share in the quarter.

Estimize, a crowdsourcing platform that gathers estimates from sell-side and buy-side analysts as well fund managers, executives, academics, and others, has a consensus per-share loss of $1.78 for Tesla...

Other issues: Expect analysts to ask questions about the Model 3 production ramp and about how close Tesla is to fulfilling its promise to run its factory at a production rate of 500,000 vehicles annually by the end of 2018...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla- ... 2017-07-27

What TSLA creditors (including model 3 depositors?) might want to look for, IMO, the future date when we should expect TSLA's cash supply to reach the vanishing point:

Einhorn on Tesla Model 3: Cash Burn to Test Investors’ Faith

... expects TSLA to spent billions producing the Model 3


Einhorn ... noted that Tesla is expected to burn more than $2 billion this year for production of the Model 3.

He added that the automaker is “currently only capitalized for the next three quarters,” according to Bloomberg. He summed up by saying that Elon Musk and Co. will be testing the market’s willingness to fund the production ramp of the Model 3 throughout the year...

In addition to the comments on cash burn made by Einhorn on Tesla Model 3, he also made some more general comments in his second-quarter letter for Greenlight Capital, which was obtained by ValueWalk. His firm is short Tesla, and he’s been speaking out about why he feels the EV maker is grossly overvalued for quite some time. He joins Stanphyl Capital and a growing number of others who are firmly in the bear camp on Tesla.

In Greenlight’s second-quarter letter, Einhorn explained, “While its [Tesla’s] cars do not burn gasoline, the company burns more than enough cash to compensate, and behaves as if it will have access to nearly free capital for the foreseeable future.”...

http://investorplace.com/2017/08/einhor ... YHU14jyuUk

And nearly invisible in the smoke-screen, elon continues to lose senior staff almost as frequently as does our dear-leader donald...

Tesla Loses Key Executive in Charge of Battery Technology

...Kurt Kelty was director of battery technology at Tesla since 2006. His departure leaves CEO Elon Musk to fill a critical position at the electric automaker, Bloomberg reported. Kelty was valuable not only because he oversaw the one component that is a cornerstone to the electric automaker; He also led negotiations between Tesla and Panasonic to form a partnership to develop batteries together at a massive factory near Reno, Nevada.
Tesla confirmed Kelty left the company to "explore new opportunities," a spokesman said in an email...

A "severe production shortfall" of 100 kilowatt-hour battery packs, which are used in the company's luxury Model S, led to fewer vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, Tesla reported last month. The company was still able to hit the low end of its goal of delivering more than 47,000 vehicles in the first half of 2017.

An ample supply of battery packs will be crucial as Tesla goes from producing 100 Model 3 vehicles in August to 20,000 in December.

http://fortune.com/2017/08/01/tesla-los ... echnology/

Meanwhile, there may be some indications that the most rapid ramp-up in automotive production in history (?) planned for the next few months just might not go entirely smoothly...

Elon Musk warns of ‘manufacturing hell’ to come—Tesla workers say factory safety is already worse than sawmills and slaughterhouses

Friday night, the billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk appeared in front of a cheering and adoring audience...

"We're going to go through at least six months of manufacturing hell," the Tesla CEO told a group of journalists ahead of the Model 3 event. On stage, Musk echoed the sentiment.

According to the Fremont, Calif., factory workers, Tesla is already putting its employees through a lot.

"One of the most serious issues concerns our health and safety," says a letter a group of factory workers from Tesla's main Fremont, Calif., facility submitted to the independent board members of Tesla on Monday"...

In May, California-based worker safety organization Worksafe published an extensive report after it analyzed the log of work-related injuries and illnesses at Tesla.

It found that Tesla's "total recordable incidence rate" was 8.8 percent (8.8 injuries per 100 workers) in 2015, the last full-year that data is available for. That's 31 percent more than the 6.7 percent total recordable incidence rate for the automobile industry as a whole, the report found, citing Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

That 8.8 percent injury rate is higher than the similar injury rates of both sawmills and slaughterhouses, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Sawmills have an injury rate of 7.3 percent and slaughterhouses have an injury rate of 5.1 to 7.3 percent, depending on the type of processing...

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/01/tesla-w ... afety.html
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Zythryn
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:16 pm

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:30 pm

lorenfb: margin call! :lol:

edit: Wow +30 after hours
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Aug 02, 2017 4:25 pm

LTLFTcomposite wrote:lorenfb: margin call! :lol:

edit: Wow +30 after hours


Not sure exactly why. Unless there are a whole bunch of shorts that were expecting bad news that didn't happen.
Deliveries on target, expected ramp up hasn't changed.
The reservations for Model 3 is basically good. Net gains since the reveal. Some losses of reservations since they started taking reservations, but at a pretty small rate over the last 16 months.
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Aug 02, 2017 6:21 pm

Better than expected revenue, not only did bad things not happen but good things did.

Hadn't heard this before though: "The company expects to begin deliveries of the Model 3 to non-employees in the fourth quarter."

Sounds like a full 60 days of beta testing on production models. That's a smart move, the last thing they need is a field problem with a lot of units shipped, the more risk mitigated the better.
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Aug 02, 2017 7:23 pm

My expectations were exceeded, as I was prepared for weakening in Model S/X sales due to cannibalization from the Model 3. This might still happen, as the Model 3 with "long range" and "premium upgrades" looks quite impressive. On the other hand, Tesla says they're now seeing more S/X orders and interest, perhaps due to the increased exposure that the brand is getting right now. So it's hard to say what will happen.

One thing that grabbed my attention is that Elon Musk stated on the call that he's personally quite involved in Autopilot/autonomy efforts. They've had some high profile turnover on that team, and it seems to me that Elon stepped up his involvement because he hasn't been entirely happy with progress toward autonomy - he hedged when asked about the cross country autonomy demonstration that was promised by the end of 2017. From reading TMC, it seems that the AP2 software isn't yet much beyond AP1. Thankfully, Elon is bright enough, and has studied AI enough (remember Neuralink and OpenAI), to be able to contribute in meaningful ways. Between working on autonomy and launching the Model 3, and everything else on his plate, it's no wonder he has been stressed!
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Aug 03, 2017 7:34 am

lorenfb wrote:A joke for a growth tech company!
No, that would be Snapchat.
A little more than a year ago Tesla was in the throes of a difficult Model X roll-out when the Model 3 reservations went through the roof. So much so that Tesla moved up production by almost a year. That's crazy-hard in the auto manufacturing business especially for an inexperienced player. A gutsy move that they pulled off. Amazing.
Not only that but they released a product (M3) that has the reservation list growing at a reported 1800/day!
Car reviewers are over the moon about the car. Anecdotally, 4 out of 5 of those who drove it said they'd definitely buy one.
I'll admit, I was expecting a bit of a drop in stock price after the ER since I thought the cash burn and loss would be ugly. I was wrong as was the Street.

I doubt Uber thinks of Tesla as a joke.
I doubt Audi, BMW, MB think of Tesla as a joke. They know those impending 450,000+ car sales are conquests of their market share and they have no answer for years.

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Aug 03, 2017 9:41 am

sparky wrote:I'll admit, I was expecting a bit of a drop in stock price after the ER since I thought the cash burn and loss would be ugly.


Right, and that's the present ongoing problem, i.e. not a GAAP profitable entity. And being an OEM automotive
manufacturer long term results low margins. So given Tesla's business model, it will never be an Apple or Amazon.
What key ecosystem does Tesla have other than the SC system, which is easily replicated, that can differentiate it
from other OEM automotive manufacturers, e.g. batteries - don't think so (just lost key battery guy)?

The good aspect about Tesla's commitment to the SCs is that if Tesla goes Chapter 7, that system could be sold
to an energy supplier, e.g. EVGO, and modified for the remaining BEVs.

sparky wrote:I doubt Uber thinks of Tesla as a joke.
I doubt Audi, BMW, MB think of Tesla as a joke. They know those impending 450,000+ car sales are conquests of their market share and they have no answer for years.


You have access to Audi/BMW/MB key product plans, right? They are not like Tesla with product announcements.
For a typical growth tech company, Tesla's growth rate is nothing to 'write home about' (a joke). The 'jury
is still out' on whether, even with the M3 reservations, Tesla will ever be profitable!

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