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LTLFTcomposite
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Aug 03, 2017 10:04 am

lorenfb wrote:You have access to Audi/BMW/MB key product plans, right? They are not like Tesla with product announcements.

That's kind of a curious statement. I see them making announcements about things they "plan" to do in 2-5 years, but outwardly it looks like they are still just ICE car companies that are at most dabbling in the space hoping the whole thing blows over. BMW seems to be taking it the most seriously, but really the i3 is just a LEAF-class entry with a few attempts at advancing the technology.

I can tell you this, I have no interest in another EV that can't make regional road trips, and consider a few chargers here and there at dealers that may be behind closed gates after hours a totally unacceptable solution. I'll limp along with el cheapo gas cars until I can get a Tesla for that reason alone.

Maybe five years from now Audi/BMW/MB will unleash a torrent of compelling EVs produced in massive volumes and collaborate to build out a comprehensive CCS network of stations in convenient road trip locations and totally squash Tesla. Personally I'd give that about the same odds as Nokia rising from the ashes and squashing Apple.
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edatoakrun
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Aug 03, 2017 10:13 am

sparky wrote: ...I thought the cash burn and loss would be ugly...

You think burning through $1.16 billion in cash, and a loss of over $400 million, in one quarter, is pretty?

BTW, that loss would have been over $ half a billion, without the $100 million "ZEV credit revenue recognized." on page 9:

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ ... 017-2Q.pdf

http://www.autonews.com/article/2017080 ... -ev-vision

Not the first time TSLA has selectively recognized this all profit/no cost revenue, ultimately provided by car buyers/taxpayers, to make its numbers look less ugly than they really were.
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Aug 03, 2017 1:42 pm

edatoakrun wrote:You think burning almost a billion dollars, and a loss of over $400 million, in one quarter, is pretty?

BTW, that loss would have been over $ half a billion, without the $100 million "ZEV credit revenue recognized." on page 9:

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ ... 017-2Q.pdf

Not the first time TSLA has selectively recognized this all profit/no cost revenue, ultimately provided by taxpayers, to make its numbers look less ugly than they really were.

Why would you think any of that is unexpected or unwarranted? Bringing a new car into production is costly, everyone knows that.

To the earlier notion that BMW or others are going to come on like gangbusters Real Soon Now:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ries-sedan

The headline "BMW Shifts Past German Rivals’ Diesel Woes With Electric Push" belies the interview where the guy blathers incessantly about diesel and the story only leaves us with vague statements like "with plans to boost spending on electric cars". Tesla is getting it done while BMW "plans" to do stuff someday. Product cycles are long in this industry, and they have a huge legacy business to protect.

Then there's this little gem:
“No established competitor has been able to put as many electrified vehicles onto the roads as we have,” Chief Executive Officer Harald Krueger said Thursday. The company will also be able to build conventional, hybrid and battery-powered variants on the same assembly lines, with such flexibility being a “key to success in times of volatility and uncertain forecasts,” he said.

Let me translate that: "We've made a few but the other guys made even fewer. We have zero commitment to this, nobody really wants the EV version but if you insist we might be able to special order you one and have it here in a few months."
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GRA
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Aug 03, 2017 3:21 pm

LTLFTcomposite wrote:Why would you think any of that is unexpected or unwarranted? Bringing a new car into production is costly, everyone knows that.

To the earlier notion that BMW or others are going to come on like gangbusters Real Soon Now:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ries-sedan

The headline "BMW Shifts Past German Rivals’ Diesel Woes With Electric Push" belies the interview where the guy blathers incessantly about diesel and the story only leaves us with vague statements like "with plans to boost spending on electric cars". Tesla is getting it done while BMW "plans" to do stuff someday. Product cycles are long in this industry, and they have a huge legacy business to protect.

Then there's this little gem:
“No established competitor has been able to put as many electrified vehicles onto the roads as we have,” Chief Executive Officer Harald Krueger said Thursday. The company will also be able to build conventional, hybrid and battery-powered variants on the same assembly lines, with such flexibility being a “key to success in times of volatility and uncertain forecasts,” he said.

Let me translate that: "We've made a few but the other guys made even fewer. We have zero commitment to this, nobody really wants the EV version but if you insist we might be able to special order you one and have it here in a few months."

Zero commitment?!? BMW had more PEV models on the market than any other manufacturer, and considering their price most of them seem to be moving quite well. 330e/530e/X5-40e/740e sales totaled 1,273 last month despite their limited AERs, then there's the i3 with 601 (at least two thirds and maybe 3/4ths of which were the REx) and the i8 with 55, for a total of 1,929 (plus 75 of the Mini Countryman). That puts them in 3rd place for the month, behind GM and Tesla and ahead of Toyota and Ford. Porsche and Audi are committed albeit trailing BMW a bit, but will have more BEVs than BMW sooner, and even Mercedes has 4 PEVs on the market. That the majority of these are PHEVs rather than BEVs is critical to purists, but of no concern to others who are just getting their feet wet.
Last edited by GRA on Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:40 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Aug 03, 2017 3:42 pm

edatoakrun wrote:
sparky wrote: ...I thought the cash burn and loss would be ugly...

You think burning through $1.16 billion in cash, and a loss of over $400 million, in one quarter, is pretty?
I think the achievement of Model 3 production on a timeline that even Tesla suggested was impossible with less cash burn than expected is stunningly beautiful.
It's a very good use of the cash since they have customers beseeching Tesla to take their $ and build them a Model 3.
It seems the stock market agrees.
It remains to be seen if, in 9 months, they'll be producing >5k cars /week with a GM of ~25%.
I think that's 25% GM on an annualized rate $10B and growing to $20B. Just from the M-3 portion of the biz.
As an TSLA investor, dropping another $2B to get there (as they expect) is worth it IMO.

edatoakrun wrote:Not the first time TSLA has selectively recognized this all profit/no cost revenue, ultimately provided by car buyers/taxpayers, to make its numbers look less ugly than they really were.
This seems like an odd statement but please correct me. Of course they recognize revenue ultimately provided by car buyers, they do make and sell ZEV cars. It's not tax payer $ per se. It's $ from other car manufacturers no?

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Aug 04, 2017 10:15 pm

GRA wrote:Zero commitment?!? BMW had more PEV models on the market than any other manufacturer, and considering their price most of them seem to be moving quite well. 330e/530e/X5-40e/740e sales totaled 1,273 last month despite their limited AERs, then there's the i3 with 601 (at least two thirds and maybe 3/4ths of which were the REx) and the i8 with 55, for a total of 1,929 (plus 75 of the Mini Countryman). That puts them in 3rd place for the month, behind GM and Tesla and ahead of Toyota and Ford. Porsche and Audi are committed albeit trailing BMW a bit, but will have more BEVs than BMW sooner, and even Mercedes has 4 PEVs on the market. That the majority of these are PHEVs rather than BEVs is critical to purists, but of no concern to others who are just getting their feet wet.

Look up unimpressed, there's a picture of me next to it. All their ads feature roaring ICE exhaust. Go to one of their dealers, 99% ICE. Their priorities are clear. Legacy all the way.
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EatsShootsandLeafs
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Aug 05, 2017 5:33 am

GRA wrote:Zero commitment?!? BMW had more PEV models on the market than any other manufacturer, and considering their price most of them seem to be moving quite well. 330e/530e/X5-40e/740e sales totaled 1,273 last month despite their limited AERs, then there's the i3 with 601 (at least two thirds and maybe 3/4ths of which were the REx) and the i8 with 55, for a total of 1,929 (plus 75 of the Mini Countryman). That puts them in 3rd place for the month, behind GM and Tesla and ahead of Toyota and Ford. Porsche and Audi are committed albeit trailing BMW a bit, but will have more BEVs than BMW sooner, and even Mercedes has 4 PEVs on the market. That the majority of these are PHEVs rather than BEVs is critical to purists, but of no concern to others who are just getting their feet wet.
These numbers are paltry. Tesla's included.

For the record I think TSLA is overpriced now. It is a stock priced as if the company is a major player now, when it's not. Not yet. Maybe it will be. But one thing is for sure: five years from now bMW will look how it does now, same with toyota, ford, etc. Tesla is the only company that has a change of exponential, rapid and insane growth. That's why it's priced so darn high.

Back to the numbers, they are paltry--for now. Tesla is "confident", that they will hit 5k cars/week this year, and 10k/next year. Even the 5k week is 20k cars/month, so now all the other competitors' numbers are dust in the wind. And as mentioned above, what do they have coming on line to compete? How many EVs will Ford be selling a year from now, or Toyota, or Mercedes, or Chrysler?

Chevy has sold what 2000 of the Bolt total? I think I've seen one on the road. Nissan will outsell the Bolt, but what has it even spent the last 6-7 years doing since it released the first Leaf? I remember when the Volt came out there was a monthly numbers competition between the leaf and the volt. Sales numbered in the hundreds/month. It looks like this sort of sales volume is still being talked about.

So the Model 3 is going to hit the road in massive numbers very soon and be the only EV most people even know exists.

Most other companies are selling EVs merely to hit compliance numbers so they can go on to make money on the ICE they so dearly love. That's why sales are pathetic, it's why the cars are so outrageously overpriced, and why 99% of the public doesn't even know they exist.

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Aug 05, 2017 6:24 am

EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:...

Chevy has sold what 2000 of the Bolt total? I think I've seen one on the road. Nissan will outsell the Bolt, but what has it even spent the last 6-7 years doing since it released the first Leaf? I remember when the Volt came out there was a monthly numbers competition between the leaf and the volt. Sales numbered in the hundreds/month. It looks like this sort of sales volume is still being talked about.

So the Model 3 is going to hit the road in massive numbers very soon and be the only EV most people even know exists.

Most other companies are selling EVs merely to hit compliance numbers so they can go on to make money on the ICE they so dearly love. That's why sales are pathetic, it's why the cars are so outrageously overpriced, and why 99% of the public doesn't even know they exist.


The Bolt has sold about 10,000 cars since its introduction late last year. Just shy of 2000 last month. Outselling the Leaf most of this year.
They should soon be available nationwide in October.
Most people I talk to at car shows are aware of Tesla, the Leaf and the Volt now. In a few years I expect Tesla to be more well known and people continue to associate the Leaf and Volt adding the Bolt to well known EVs.

I also expect more manufacturers to increase their electric offerings.
Stock holder meetings have already been had where stockholders grilled BMW executives about what they are going to do about EVs taking their market share in the luxury market. This will repeat in the entry level luxury market. In a year and a half or so.
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EatsShootsandLeafs
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Aug 05, 2017 8:02 am

Oops my bad on bolt sales :D

GRA
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Aug 05, 2017 2:07 pm

LTLFTcomposite wrote:
GRA wrote:Zero commitment?!? BMW had more PEV models on the market than any other manufacturer, and considering their price most of them seem to be moving quite well. 330e/530e/X5-40e/740e sales totaled 1,273 last month despite their limited AERs, then there's the i3 with 601 (at least two thirds and maybe 3/4ths of which were the REx) and the i8 with 55, for a total of 1,929 (plus 75 of the Mini Countryman). That puts them in 3rd place for the month, behind GM and Tesla and ahead of Toyota and Ford. Porsche and Audi are committed albeit trailing BMW a bit, but will have more BEVs than BMW sooner, and even Mercedes has 4 PEVs on the market. That the majority of these are PHEVs rather than BEVs is critical to purists, but of no concern to others who are just getting their feet wet.

Look up unimpressed, there's a picture of me next to it. All their ads feature roaring ICE exhaust. Go to one of their dealers, 99% ICE. Their priorities are clear. Legacy all the way.

Yes, their priorities are clear. They will electrify while continuing to sell cars that make them a profit. It's so much easier to be disruptive when you don't have to worry about that last part. :lol:
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