GRA
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu May 17, 2018 2:03 pm

edatoakrun wrote:
GRA wrote:
LTLFTcomposite wrote:^ It could just be that they are burning out and have other opportunities that are equally lucrative.

Entirely possible. Tesla has always had high turnover in the executive ranks. It's not for anyone who insists on having a life.

TSLA, of course, uses nondisclosure agreements to prevent open discussion by present and former employeees of what is really happening.

So you need to judge for yourself if the comments below ring true: <snip>

Sounds more or less how he was described in Ashley Vance's bio, so I'm not surprised. Burnout is common in the high-tech sector, and IIRR things were much the same at Paypal. If you aren't into working 90-100 hour weeks trying to meet unrealistic schedules it's not the job for you. I certainly wouldn't want to work in that environment.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu May 17, 2018 5:34 pm

WetEV wrote:
edatoakrun wrote:Even if it halted all vehicle production and capital spending today, TSLA would still to raise many billions in new cash in the next few years to pay off the short-term debt it incurred from losing much of the money it borrowed in order to deliver the BEVs it has built to date.


Stopping vehicle production would be counter productive. Perhaps you mean vehicle development?

If TSLA continued vehicle production and prioritized capital spending to production bottlenecks only, then TSLA might increase revenue to $20 billion per year next year and rising only slowly after that, have a free cash flow over $1 billion per year starting next year and rising, and GAAP profits near $0.6 billion per year next year and doubling after that. So yes, TSLA would need to raise less than $1 billion next year to cover the $1.816 billion coming due next year. However, TSLA would be debt free and perhaps repurchasing shares by 2023 or so. And would never be much bigger than $30 billion (2018 dollars) per year in revenue.

Or TSLA might try to grow to maintain vehicle market share. Would look something like Ford in a decade, but much smaller.

Or TSLA might target GAAP breakeven, and need to continue to borrow. Could perhaps grow at 20% per year.

Or TSLA might continue to focus on very rapid growth and large and increasing losses. Can't go on all that much larger, as another decade like the last would make TSLA revenue $16T. US GDP is about $18T.

I don't know what is going to happen. Got popcorn.


Yes, all scenarios are possible. But given Elon's propensity to continue his historical business strategy, i.e. little/no concern for profitability,
Tesla's 5+ years of losses will likely continue with more product divergence, e.g. the Semi, the Model Y, Tesla 150 truck, tunneling, hyper-loop,
solar tiles, battery storage, and Tesla Solar, resulting potentially in a Chapter 11 or worst case Chapter 7 bankruptcy.
Leaf SL MY 9/13: 66K miles, 50 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 charges to 100% > 1000, max battery temp < 95F (35C), min discharge point > 20 Ahrs

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LTLFTcomposite
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu May 17, 2018 5:47 pm

Yet another variable, brought to you by the perennial Tesla cheerleader seeking alpha:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/417525 ... ely-spacex
LTL
White 2012 SV delivered 10 Dec 2011 returned 25 Nov 2014 replaced with stopgap ICE Sentra
[35 months] [35K miles] [9 Bars]
2013 Volt replaced after 36 months/30k miles with ICE Rogue
2016 SV-adjacent May 2016 lost 4th bar March 2018

lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu May 17, 2018 8:54 pm

LTLFTcomposite wrote:Yet another variable, brought to you by the perennial Tesla cheerleader seeking alpha:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/417525 ... ely-spacex


See, it's equally balanced, right?
Leaf SL MY 9/13: 66K miles, 50 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 charges to 100% > 1000, max battery temp < 95F (35C), min discharge point > 20 Ahrs

lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue May 22, 2018 8:07 am

Time to buy more TSLA shares for some, based on the following perspective?

Summary
After Q1's record loss and the "irregular earnings call," a lot of nervousness and uncertainty seems to be plaguing Tesla.
So why are key insiders buying more shares?
Ah yes, it could be because some of the most important fundamental elements at Tesla continue to improve.
And yes, Tesla can become profitable by the end of this year. I provide a comprehensive revenue, gross margin, and net income model to support this assertion.
Beware, results may surprise you as next year's profitability prospects increase substantially.


The most important elements continue to improve for Tesla. Most notably, the pace of production and profitability of the Model 3 vehicle. According to Bloomberg’s Model 3 tracker Tesla was producing about 3,566 Model 3 vehicles per week at the time of writing this vehicle. Moreover, the Model 3 line was shut down for improvements in April, so the actual production rate could be even higher right now.


The sky is not falling around Tesla. To the contrary, the fundamental elements surrounding the company are steadily improving. Most prominently, Model 3 production is greatly increasing in scale, and is becoming more profitable at the same time. Moreover, once production attains the 5K per week target, Tesla’s increased automation can begin to enable the company’s economies of scale to significantly improve in the Model 3 segment. This should allow the company to substantially improve Model 3 margins throughout the rest of this year and into 2019.


You be the judge.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/417613 ... ility?dr=1
Leaf SL MY 9/13: 66K miles, 50 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 charges to 100% > 1000, max battery temp < 95F (35C), min discharge point > 20 Ahrs

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EVDRIVER
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue May 22, 2018 8:17 am

lorenfb wrote:
WetEV wrote:
edatoakrun wrote:Even if it halted all vehicle production and capital spending today, TSLA would still to raise many billions in new cash in the next few years to pay off the short-term debt it incurred from losing much of the money it borrowed in order to deliver the BEVs it has built to date.


Stopping vehicle production would be counter productive. Perhaps you mean vehicle development?

If TSLA continued vehicle production and prioritized capital spending to production bottlenecks only, then TSLA might increase revenue to $20 billion per year next year and rising only slowly after that, have a free cash flow over $1 billion per year starting next year and rising, and GAAP profits near $0.6 billion per year next year and doubling after that. So yes, TSLA would need to raise less than $1 billion next year to cover the $1.816 billion coming due next year. However, TSLA would be debt free and perhaps repurchasing shares by 2023 or so. And would never be much bigger than $30 billion (2018 dollars) per year in revenue.

Or TSLA might try to grow to maintain vehicle market share. Would look something like Ford in a decade, but much smaller.

Or TSLA might target GAAP breakeven, and need to continue to borrow. Could perhaps grow at 20% per year.

Or TSLA might continue to focus on very rapid growth and large and increasing losses. Can't go on all that much larger, as another decade like the last would make TSLA revenue $16T. US GDP is about $18T.

I don't know what is going to happen. Got popcorn.


Yes, all scenarios are possible. But given Elon's propensity to continue his historical business strategy, i.e. little/no concern for profitability,
Tesla's 5+ years of losses will likely continue with more product divergence, e.g. the Semi, the Model Y, Tesla 150 truck, tunneling, hyper-loop,
solar tiles, battery storage, and Tesla Solar, resulting potentially in a Chapter 11 or worst case Chapter 7 bankruptcy.



Nice to see American companies reinvesting and not trying to squeeze every penny out of the business, the risk may just pay out and certainly he's done more to change the landscape than other corporations in this area.

lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue May 22, 2018 8:21 am

EVDRIVER wrote:
he's done more to change the landscape than other corporations in this area.


Yes, the love for Elon is endless!

Nothing to do with love, just what a company leader is doing. Pretty clear to any casual observer.

Why do some moderators modify posts? The bolden text is NOT mine! What's going on here???????????????

To the disbelief of some awhile ago, that I previously noted, this did/does occur.
Leaf SL MY 9/13: 66K miles, 50 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 charges to 100% > 1000, max battery temp < 95F (35C), min discharge point > 20 Ahrs

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EVDRIVER
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue May 22, 2018 9:23 am

You are not crazy, the buttons on your CP are different than mine (edit and quote next to each other) and rarely when quoted it can come up as an edit on accident, for some reason the edit intended as a quote goes bold once submitted indicating the edit. Nothing on your post was intentionally put into bold. The edit is my reply, In my panel it looks like a reply quote. It should read like the post below. Again, if you have an issue with a post PM a mod and it can be looked into or resolved. This is a simple misquote error. Sorry.

You should also reply in a separate post as it appears you edited your post making it confusing to understand and resolve the original issue. FYI

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EVDRIVER
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue May 22, 2018 9:24 am

lorenfb wrote:
EVDRIVER wrote:
he's done more to change the landscape than other corporations in this area.


Yes, the love for Elon is endless!

Nothing to do with love, just what a company leader is doing. Pretty clear to any casual observer.

Why do some moderators modify posts? The bolden text is NOT mine! What's going on here???????????????

To the disbelief of some awhile ago, that I previously noted, this did/does occur.



Nothing to do with love, just what a company leader is doing. Pretty clear to any casual observer.

edatoakrun
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue May 22, 2018 3:57 pm

I've reported recent moderator activity on this thread, as quoted below.

If any of your comments have been deleted or altered recently, I'd suggest you report that also.

Please review moderator activity on this thread.

One of my comments on this thread disappeared a few days ago.

When I asked for an explanation, "EVDRIVER" indicated he had deleted my post by accident, and another of my posts had been added to (NOT in bold type, as claimed) and then mis-quoted in this altered form by "EVDRIVER".

When I posted a request for an correction, nothing happened until today, when all of the multiple posts by many forum members made from late on 5/17 to early 5/22, including "EVDRIVER"'s explanation for how he had deleted my post by accident and my altered posts, had all disappeared.

Is it too much to ask that the content we contribute to this forum not be altered or destroyed by a moderator's errors?


EVDRIVER wrote:You are not crazy, the buttons on your CP are different than mine (edit and quote next to each other) and rarely when quoted it can come up as an edit on accident, for some reason the edit intended as a quote goes bold once submitted indicating the edit. Nothing on your post was intentionally put into bold. The edit is my reply, In my panel it looks like a reply quote. It should read like the post below. Again, if you have an issue with a post PM a mod and it can be looked into or resolved. This is a simple misquote error. Sorry.

You should also reply in a separate post as it appears you edited your post making it confusing to understand and resolve the original issue. FYI
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