GRA
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Jun 04, 2018 5:00 pm

Via IEVS:
23% Of Tesla Model 3 Reservations Have Been Refunded
: https://insideevs.com/23-percent-tesla-model-3-reservations-refunded/

. . . When the order books first opened up for the all-electric sedan on March 31, 2016, people stood in lines at stores around the U.S. in an effort to be among the first to take delivery of a car they wouldn’t see until later that day.

A week later, it was announced that the company had received 325,000 initial reservations — within a month the figure had climbed to 400,000. By the time the first vehicles were ready to be handed over to the first customers, the number, despite 63,000 cancellations (about 12 percent), had still grown to 455,000 worldwide. . . .

With production being pushed back a couple times, though, it seems that juggernaut of a number may have decreased. According to analytics outfit Second Measure which “analyzes billions of anonymized purchases to answer real-time questions about consumer behavior,” reservation refunds have, of late, outpaced deposits, leading to a total of 23 percent of reservations being returned since that first heady day of down-the-block lineups.

Looking at their graph, it seems the bloom really started to come off the rose this past January, with the deflowering accelerating in April. Of course, new reservations are still coming in but their pace has not been equal to those receiving their $1,000 deposit back. According to Recode, which also covered the issue, Tesla says the Second Measure numbers do not “align with its internal data, but would not be more specific as to how far off it is.” We’ have also reached out for clarification and will update this post with any new information.

It seems likely a large portion of these latest cancellations are related to the pushback of the base $35,000 version of the sedan and price-sensitive customers realizing they won’t be able to take advantage of the full $7,500 tax credit that begins to phase out when a manufacturer reaches the 200,000 mark. . . .


Also IEVS:
Best Rate On Tesla Auto Insurance? Prepare For Vehicle Monitoring
https://insideevs.com/want-the-best-rate-on-tesla-auto-insurance-prepare-for-vehicle-monitoring/

. . . Recently, Tesla has stated that they are working with specific auto insurance companies to offer better rates to Tesla owners. The program is called “InsureMy Tesla” and it is offered through Liberty Mutual Insurance Company.

Being a Model S owner myself, I decided to look into it because my rates through Allstate were quite high. I have been paying $150/month for my 2012 Model S (not a “P” version) and that’s with no tickets, no accidents, in Arizona, 68 years of age and $1,000 collision deductible.

Sound high?

I’d say, so I decided to check into this “InsureMy Tesla” program offered through Liberty Mutual. What I found was a significantly lower rate of $75/month with the contingency that I let them monitor my vehicle for 90 days. It’s called “right track” and involves downloading an app to your smartphone and installing a small tag on your windshield that monitors specific behaviors including braking, acceleration, nighttime driving, and miles driven.

Just a guess, but it sounds like they have figured out how to embed a small accelerometer into the tag that goes on your windshield.

The program runs for 90 days. If I had refused to participate my rates would have increased by around 15 percent. You can get a quote on the internet if you are interested. Just go to Liberty Mutual website for an internet quote or check out InsureMy Tesla.

I signed up. I’ll keep you posted as to the results. . . .
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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EVDRIVER
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Jun 04, 2018 5:13 pm

The attrition rate for reservations is shockingly low, I would have expected at least 40-50% at this point based on the timeline, the remaining number is very high.

High insurances rates are specific to the S because some markets have high claim rates and repair costs are high, also do to lack of independent repair sites which is changing.
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edatoakrun
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Jun 04, 2018 5:34 pm

Another sign that TSLA's numbers this quarter may be ugly :

Internal documents reveal Tesla is blowing through an insane amount of raw material and cash to make Model 3s, and production is still a nightmare

Tesla is wasting a jaw-dropping amount of raw material and cash to make the Model 3.

Internal documents reviewed by Business Insider show that the company expects that as much as 40% of the raw materials used to produce batteries and driving units manufactured at Tesla's Gigafactory in Nevada need to be scrapped or reworked by employees before they are sent to Tesla's factory in Fremont, California, and assembled into Model 3s. The documents were dated in the first quarter.

That is to say, for every 2,500 battery packs and driving units that leave the Gigafactory, an additional 1,000 pieces of "nonconforming material" is created. Half of that will be reworked and put into other car parts. The other half becomes scrap.

Tesla has spent almost $150 million on scrap materials so far this year, according to internal estimates Business Insider has seen. That number does not include the overhead cost of creating that scrap (energy, labor hours, etc.). Tesla reported manufacturing 9,766 Model 3s in the first quarter of this year.

Tesla told Business Insider that $150 million was an overstatement...

The cost of scrap has become so dramatic that, internally, Tesla documents sometimes quantify the amount of money wasted by comparing it to another eye-popping number — like the scrap cost's equivalent measured in miles of $5 footlong Subway sandwiches (137.11 miles, in one case)...

Business Insider also reviewed dozens of pictures of scrap piled high inside the Gigafactory. Some of it is flammable material used to create lithium batteries. Our source said some of these batteries presented a hazard as they're connected. Tesla said that was patently false, that all nonconforming materials are kept in a temperature-controlled room, and that they pose no safety threat...

http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-mo ... ory-2018-5
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Evoforce
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Jun 05, 2018 3:38 am

EVDRIVER wrote:The attrition rate for reservations is shockingly low, I would have expected at least 40-50% at this point based on the timeline, the remaining number is very high.

High insurances rates are specific to the S because some markets have high claim rates and repair costs are high, also do to lack of independent repair sites which is changing.

Many have instead purchased a model X or S in lieu of model 3 signup.
*2011 Leaf 1 bought 2/28/15 @ 28,000ish mi 10 bar (8 bars @ 11/25/15 @ 37,453 ) (New lizard @ 39,275 mi @ 1/20/2016) Now 52,166 mi.
*Tesla Model S 61,000 mi
*2011 Leaf 2 bought 4/28/15 @ 24,000ish mi 12 bar (new lizard Dec. 2014 @ 22,273 mi) Now 35,485 mi

edatoakrun
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Jun 05, 2018 6:27 am

EVDRIVER wrote:The attrition rate for reservations is shockingly low...

The ratio (as reported) was ~three refunds of deposits issued for each model 3 delivery made, with an unknown additional number of refunds being (slowly) processed by TSLA, so not yet reported.

I'm, shocked, SHOCKED to find so many model three buyers cancelling orders after they find out the post-incentive price for the model 3's that they can actually buy, are close to twice as much as what they were told when the made their deposits...
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GRA
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Jun 05, 2018 6:22 pm

Via ABG:
Tesla annual meeting: Model 3 goal ‘quite likely’; Musk remains chairman
https://www.autoblog.com/2018/06/05/tesla-annual-meeting-elon-musk-model-3/

Tesla CEO Elon Musk said on Tuesday that meeting a goal of building 5,000 Model 3s per week by the end of June was "quite likely" as the company's production lines were now demonstrating the ability to build 3,500 vehicles per week.

"This is the most excruciating hellish several months I've ever had ... but I think we're getting there," Musk said during Tesla's annual meeting of stockholders in Mountain View, California.

Musk's comments came after shareholders re-elected three directors and voted against a proposal to wrest the chairman role from Musk. That had represented the strongest challenge yet to Musk's grip on the Silicon Valley electric vehicle maker, which also faces production setbacks and expectations by many analysts that it will need to raise new cash.

Shares rose 1 percent after hours. . . .

The company has been engaging in so-called "burst builds," temporary periods of full-scale production. Tesla then extrapolates the number of cars built during these short-term burst builds over a longer time period. . . .

He repeated his assertion that the company was not planning on raising additional debt or equity, without providing a timeframe, and said he expected positive net income and cash flow in the third and fourth quarters. . . .
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

edatoakrun
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Jun 05, 2018 6:33 pm

Musk opens with schmaltz, beginning at ~32 minutes into the video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIdjv6oHzio
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cwerdna
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:55 am

I stumbled across https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tl9F0D27ShM while looking for The Verge's WWDC summary video.

But, FWIW, right now TSLA's stock is up over 7% (up by over $21/share). Go figure.

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finman100
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:57 am

Tesla is fine. stop lying. Elon is fine, stop lying.

Go play in effing traffic and get a life. We're tired of the FUD already.

How do these people sleep at night?
Albany, Oregon
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jlv
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Jun 06, 2018 11:41 am

cwerdna wrote:I stumbled across...
An excellent recap of all the fear, uncertainty, and doubt about Tesla's execution. Had that been posted earlier, it might have helped drop the stock more, maybe putting it into my buy range before the post-shareholder meeting jump. Too late now.
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