lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue May 02, 2017 3:16 pm

mtndrew1 wrote:Naturally at some point the S/X demand will stabilize or soften as is the case with any platform that has been on sale for five years


Yes, it appears demand is peaking.

mtndrew1 wrote:but it hasn't happened yet


April numbers question the validity of that.

mtndrew1 wrote:and it looks like it's plausible that the 3 will launch on time to dovetail with any softening and will keep the delivery numbers climbing.


And you know this as fact, right?

mtndrew1
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue May 02, 2017 3:43 pm

lorenfb wrote:
Irrespective of the early Q1 numbers, i.e. where the focus is somewhat on ROW, the April U.S. numbers are
more overall representative of Tesla's ongoing sales trend, which appears to problematic for Tesla's future
cash flows.


Look at every single three-month quarterly period on the InsideEVs sales charts going back and you'll see that the beginning of each quarter is very light on US deliveries and the end of the quarter is extremely heavy on US deliveries. This pattern repeats consistently. April 2017 is the first month of the quarter and just like Q2 '16 it's light on US deliveries. Shocking. (Edit: That said, April 2017's US Tesla deliveries of 1840 units is 15% greater than the same time last year. Deliveries at least through April 2017 are increasing, not decreasing.)

For example:

Q1 2016
January 1120
February 1820
March 5850


Q2 2016
April 1595
May 2800
June 5845


Q3 2016
July 2704
August 4685
Sept 7550


Q4 2016
October 1425
November 2000
December 9725
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GetOffYourGas
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed May 03, 2017 5:32 am

lorenfb wrote:
mtndrew1 wrote:and it looks like it's plausible that the 3 will launch on time to dovetail with any softening and will keep the delivery numbers climbing.


And you know this as fact, right?


Oh knock it off. You need to work on your reading comprehension. mtndrew1 clearly said that it's plausible. That is clearly an opinion and not a fact. In time we will know the facts.
~Brian

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lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed May 03, 2017 9:15 am

GetOffYourGas wrote:
lorenfb wrote:
mtndrew1 wrote:and it looks like it's plausible that the 3 will launch on time to dovetail with any softening and will keep the delivery numbers climbing.


And you know this as fact, right?


Oh knock it off.


?

GetOffYourGas
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed May 03, 2017 11:09 am

If you read my entire post, that comment should be clear enough. If you have an actual question, then ask it.
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GRA
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed May 03, 2017 7:20 pm

Via IEVS:
Tesla Q1 2017 Earnings: Model 3 On Track For July Production Start
http://insideevs.com/tesla-q1-2017-earn ... ion-start/

. . .The market consensus was for an expected a loss of 82 cents a share heading into the report, on revenue of 2.55 billion.

In actual fact Tesla lost more than expected at $1.33 per share, but revenue came in higher at $2.7 billion.

Operating expenses were up $224 million sequentially.

Behind those numbers Tesla pointed out that the results reflected a full quarter of SolarCity’s operating expenses, and also $67 million of non-recurring charges related to acquiring SolarCity and Grohmann, as well as the wind-down of work for Daimler.

“Excluding these items, vehicle-related operating expenses increased only 8% sequentially despite significant Model 3 vehicle development progress and expansion of our customer support infrastructure.”

Tesla says its up to $4 billion in cash reserves (“the highest level of cash we have had at quarter-end in our history”), after raising $1.22 billion during Q1 between share and convertible note sales. . . .

Last month, Tesla estimated it sold just over 25,000 EVs during Q1, which was higher than expectations. Now, with this report we get to see the specific results of the January to March period, with Tesla confirming that 25,051 were sold.

Tesla left first half sales expectations unchanged:

“Based on our current order and production rates, our first half outlook remains unchanged at 47,000 to 50,000 deliveries, which represents 61% to 71% annual vehicle delivery growth. . . .”
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

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lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed May 03, 2017 9:42 pm

GRA wrote:Via IEVS:
Tesla Q1 2017 Earnings: Model 3 On Track For July Production Start
http://insideevs.com/tesla-q1-2017-earn ... ion-start/

. . .The market consensus was for an expected a loss of 82 cents a share heading into the report, on revenue of 2.55 billion.

In actual fact Tesla lost more than expected at $1.33 per share, but revenue came in higher at $2.7 billion.

Operating expenses were up $224 million sequentially.

Behind those numbers Tesla pointed out that the results reflected a full quarter of SolarCity’s operating expenses, and also $67 million of non-recurring charges related to acquiring SolarCity and Grohmann, as well as the wind-down of work for Daimler.

“Excluding these items, vehicle-related operating expenses increased only 8% sequentially despite significant Model 3 vehicle development progress and expansion of our customer support infrastructure.”

Tesla says its up to $4 billion in cash reserves (“the highest level of cash we have had at quarter-end in our history”), after raising $1.22 billion during Q1 between share and convertible note sales. . . .

Last month, Tesla estimated it sold just over 25,000 EVs during Q1, which was higher than expectations. Now, with this report we get to see the specific results of the January to March period, with Tesla confirming that 25,051 were sold.

Tesla left first half sales expectations unchanged:

“Based on our current order and production rates, our first half outlook remains unchanged at 47,000 to 50,000 deliveries, which represents 61% to 71% annual vehicle delivery growth. . . .”


The $1.33/share loss is non-GAAP. The GAAP loss is $2.00/share. Maybe another round of funding before the end
of the year or maybe hype reservations on Model Y for delivery in 2020?

Have to "love" these two statements from Elon:

First;

Model 3 vehicle development is nearly complete as we approach the start of production. Release Candidate vehicles, built using production-intent tooling and processes, are being tested to assess fit and finish, to support vehicle software development and to ensure a smooth and predictable homologation process. Road testing is also underway to refine driving dynamics and ensure vehicle durability.


And then;

Model 3 activities related to vehicle development, manufacturing equipment installation and supplier readiness remain on plan to start production in July.


So we are now in the 1st week of May and Tesla is still in development & road testing but planning for
a production start-up in the beginning of July. Is that a little wishful thinking from Elon or typical hyperbole?

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LTLFTcomposite
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu May 04, 2017 3:43 am

Maybe they are just a little more agile than their competition. What is supposed to happen between the completion of testing and start of manufacturing? Vacation?
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finman100
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu May 04, 2017 11:25 am

not good to be a short. sorry.
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GetOffYourGas
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu May 04, 2017 1:46 pm

LTLFTcomposite wrote:Maybe they are just a little more agile than their competition. What is supposed to happen between the completion of testing and start of manufacturing? Vacation?


Depends on what they find during testing. Tesla decided to skip "soft tooling", which could be a costly gamble if they need to make significant changes. But it could pay off in spades if they don't. We'll know soon enough.
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