smkettner
Posts: 7313
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Feb 02, 2019 11:19 pm

Is anyone concerned that January sales of Model 3 are estimated at just 6,500 by insideevs.com?

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

Sure 6,500 is more than January 2018 however Tesla was constrained by production last year. Supposedly Tesla is producing close to 6,000 per week.... can all those extras be headed out of the US?

Did the drop in federal tax credit change demand toward the competition?

Or is this just a season normal fluctuation? Is the estimate just wrong and a bit low?

I am rather surprised January sales dropped under 10,000.
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palmermd
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sun Feb 03, 2019 12:31 am

Tesla began shipping to Europe and Asia in January. They put a large percentage of their production onto ships that take several weeks to reach port in other continents. Once these pipelines are filled with vehicles you will see the numbers stabilize again.
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cwerdna
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sun Feb 03, 2019 12:37 am

smkettner wrote:Is anyone concerned that January sales of Model 3 are estimated at just 6,500 by insideevs.com?

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

Sure 6,500 is more than January 2018 however Tesla was constrained by production last year. Supposedly Tesla is producing close to 6,000 per week.... can all those extras be headed out of the US?

Did the drop in federal tax credit change demand toward the competition?

Yes on what palmermd said about vehicles being bound for outside the US.

However, I suspect there was also inflated demand and a surge towards the end of 2018 by people wanting to get the full tax credit. Introducing the mid-range 3 also helped more people decide they were ok w/a higher than $35K price but lower than the $49K starting price of the LR RWD car.

I wouldn't be surprised if US 3 sales average below 15K/month from this point forward until the "$35K" SR model ships as the tax credit wanes...

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lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sun Feb 03, 2019 12:44 pm

palmermd wrote:Tesla began shipping to Europe and Asia in January. They put a large percentage of their production onto ships that take several weeks to reach port in other continents. Once these pipelines are filled with vehicles you will see the numbers stabilize again.


Tesla has excess U.S. inventory just sitting in multiple storage lots around the U.S. This was noted previously, e.g. at the Marina Del Rey
Tesla distribution center, on Culver Blvd. That inventory, i.e. 30 - 40 M3s, is still there. Telsa has a volume problem trying to maintain sales
of $44K+ M3s to be profitable. Yes, ROW sales in the short term will help, but nowhere near the volume in the U.S. in Q4 of 2018.

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=18016&start=3190#p546062
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GRA
Posts: 10191
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Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sun Feb 03, 2019 5:31 pm

IEVS:
Tesla To Offer CCS Adapter For Model S, X In Europe
https://insideevs.com/tesla-ccs-adapter-model-s-x-europe/

120kW vs. 43 kW max. for the CHAdeMO adapter.


GCR:
Commentary: Tesla races to outrun perfect storm from tax credit, production, cost hurdles
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1121267_commentary-tesla-races-to-outrun-perfect-storm-from-tax-credit-production-cost-hurdles
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

cwerdna
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Location: SF Bay Area, CA

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sun Feb 03, 2019 5:39 pm

lorenfb wrote:
palmermd wrote:Tesla began shipping to Europe and Asia in January. They put a large percentage of their production onto ships that take several weeks to reach port in other continents. Once these pipelines are filled with vehicles you will see the numbers stabilize again.


Tesla has excess U.S. inventory just sitting in multiple storage lots around the U.S. This was noted previously, e.g. at the Marina Del Rey
Tesla distribution center, on Culver Blvd. That inventory, i.e. 30 - 40 M3s, is still there. Telsa has a volume problem trying to maintain sales
of $44K+ M3s to be profitable. Yes, ROW sales in the short term will help, but nowhere near the volume in the U.S. in Q4 of 2018.

http://mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f ... 90#p546062

I wonder what US-wide inventory of 3's looks like and of what equipment levels.

FWIW, the dealer I bought my Bolt from allegedly has (currently) 229 Bolts in stock: https://www.chevroletoffremont.com/Vehi ... =Bolt%20EV. https://www.capitolchevysj.com/new-vehicles/bolt-ev/ allegedly has 291 of them in stock. For 2018, GM only sold/leased about 18K Bolts in the US and their Bolt marketing efforts seem to be near 0.

'19 Bolt Premier
'13 Leaf SV w/premium package (owned)
'13 Leaf SV w/QC + LED & premium packages (lease over, car returned)

Please don't PM me with Leaf questions. Just post in the topic that seems most appropriate.

GRA
Posts: 10191
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sun Feb 03, 2019 5:54 pm

cwerdna wrote:I wonder what US-wide inventory of 3's looks like and of what equipment levels.

FWIW, the dealer I bought my Bolt from allegedly has (currently) 229 Bolts in stock: https://www.chevroletoffremont.com/Vehi ... =Bolt%20EV. https://www.capitolchevysj.com/new-vehicles/bolt-ev/ allegedly has 291 of them in stock. For 2018, GM only sold/leased about 18K Bolts in the US and their Bolt marketing efforts seem to be near 0.

Via ABG:
. . . Analysts were also concerned by Tesla's indication that it is only making cars for China and Europe right now, and expects a gap of about 10,000 vehicles between production and deliveries due to vehicles in transit at the end of the first quarter.

"This is a strong indication that demand in the U.S. for both the mid-range and long-range Model 3 versions has largely been exhausted, and the company is still working through the estimated ~6.8k of unsold Model 3 inventory," Cowen analysts said. . . .
https://www.autoblog.com/2019/01/31/tes ... and-china/
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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jlv
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Feb 05, 2019 10:14 am

(too late to delete)
Last edited by jlv on Tue Feb 05, 2019 11:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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LTLFTcomposite
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Feb 05, 2019 11:19 am

I wonder what's the deal with Maxwell
LTL
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EatsShootsandLeafs
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Feb 07, 2019 7:16 am

Based on their 4th quarter guidance I no longer believe there will ever be a $35k Model 3. Too many punts, too many "once X, we'll start the $35k".

Musk is continuing to be dishonest about it, and LAtimes called him out appropriately:

https://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzi ... story.html

The more I learn about Musk the more I see a compulsive BSer. I think this is the result of a growing narcissism and insistence to surround himself with yes-men. Nothing he says can be taken seriously. His comments are so far removed from what will happen that even his most strident fans summarily dismiss his timelines as irrelevant, and argue that specifics don't matter.

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