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EVDRIVER
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Mar 05, 2019 7:00 am

LTLFTcomposite wrote:
EVDRIVER wrote:
LTLFTcomposite wrote:Do they know how many people saw the car in a store, sat in one, talked to sales people and other customers, maybe even took a test drive, then some time later decided to pull the trigger and place an on line order?
Yes they track that in detail. Every step and every person that was involved.
Funny I've sat in them in stores and never given my name. Often the store was so crowded the reps were already talking to other customers. They could be using facial recognition I suppose.
They also don’t track people that walk past the windows outside. What’s your point? They track most of the interested parties and all the peoole that drive the car or are seriously interested buyers. My guess is most on this thread won’t be on their system and some like Loren have never sat in one but they are not buyers and never will be. Nissan has showrooms where you can’t see a LEAF, and when you can often know one knows a thing about it. If Nissan onle sold EVs where should they be now? Not in business that’s for sure;)

lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Mar 05, 2019 7:07 am

Tesla by the numbers:

Gross sales for 2018 - $21B ($21 x 10^9)
Unit sales - 245,000 (2.45 x 10^5), ASP $84K
GP - $4B ($4 x 10^9)
GP($/vehicle) = $4 x 10^9 / 2.45 x 10^5 = $16.3K per vehicle
GP(%) = $4B / $21B = 19
GAAP (loss) = $1B ($10^9)
GAAP (loss/vehicle) = $10^9 / 2.5 x 10^5 = $4,000 per vehicle

So for every vehicle (out-the-door"), Tesla gave away $4,000 of shareholder wealth. Tesla is another potential Apple/Amazon, right?
And what would one expect long term given that Tesla is basically operating with an automotive business model? And given that the
MS/MX sales have basically peaked at about 100K per year and now with a price cut, and the M3 new volume price (~ $35k - $40K) is down,
the outlook for 2019 is very marginal. Remember, Tesla vehicles at the present price point are still basically an inelastic product,
i.e. the M3 price reduction will not generate enough GP to result in a GAAP profitable Tesla in 2019! Let's not forget that CAPEX, R&D,
& other overhead must be paid for and just focus on GP per vehicle - as some do. By the way, where will the needed increase
in production capacity come from, assuming Tesla has reached its max at about 20-25K/month to achieve the needed profit to offset
the lower future ASP per vehicle, and that's notwithstanding marginal product demand?

Additional Calcs:

2018: GP + Loss = Overhead = $4B + $1B = $5B
Assuming present Tesla at max capacity per year of 300K (25K/month);
Needed GP/vehicle = $5B / 300K = $17,000
Given the latest price MS/MX/M3 price reductions, Tesla most likely will have another GAAP loss for 2019 without more overhead reductions.

Here are the actual 2018 Tesla numbers; https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/fina ... -statement
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 74K miles, 48 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F, (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
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EVDRIVER
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Mar 05, 2019 7:58 am

lorenfb wrote:Tesla by the numbers:

Gross sales for 2018 - $21B ($21 x 10^9)
Unit sales - 245,000 (2.45 x 10^5), ASP $84K
GP - $4B ($4 x 10^9)
GP($/vehicle) = $4 x 10^9 / 2.45 x 10^5 = $16.3K per vehicle
GP(%) = $4B / $21B = 19
GAAP (loss) = $1B ($10^9)
GAAP (loss/vehicle) = $10^9 / 2.5 x 10^5 = $4,000 per vehicle

So for every vehicle (out-the-door"), Tesla gave away $4,000 of shareholder wealth. Tesla is another potential Apple/Amazon, right?
And what would one expect long term given that Tesla is basically operating with an automotive business model? And given that the
MS/MX sales have basically peaked at about 100K per year and now with a price cut, and the M3 new volume price (~ $35k - $40K) is down,
the outlook for 2019 is very marginal. Remember, Tesla vehicles at the present price point are still basically an inelastic product,
i.e. the M3 price reduction will not generate enough GP to result in a GAAP profitable Tesla in 2019! Let's not forget that CAPEX, R&D,
& other overhead must be paid for and just focus on GP per vehicle - as some do. By the way, where will the needed increase
in production capacity come from, assuming Tesla has reached its max at about 20-25K/month to achieve the needed profit to offset
the lower future ASP per vehicle, and that's notwithstanding marginal product demand?

Additional Calcs:

2018: GP + Loss = Overhead = $4B + $1B = $5B
Assuming present Tesla at max capacity per year of 300K (25K/month);
Needed GP/vehicle = $5B / 300K = $17,000
Given the latest price MS/MX/M3 price reductions, Tesla most likely will have another GAAP loss for 2019 without more overhead reductions.

Here are the actual 2018 Tesla numbers; https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/fina ... -statement
So why do you say you want to buy one now?

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:23 am

lorenfb wrote:Tesla by the numbers:

So for every vehicle (out-the-door"), Tesla gave away $4,000 of shareholder wealth.
Tesla was ramping up production in 2018. More costs, less profit while the production line was getting up to speed. Assuming 2019 is static production at the Q4 rate, costs will be lower and sales will be higher.

Tesla's price cuts are both excessive and poorly timed. Sure, bring out the base model. But cutting prices of the Model S was a mistake. Let volumes fall until a replacement model is released.
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LTLFTcomposite
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:47 am

EVDRIVER wrote:They also don’t track people that walk past the windows outside. What’s your point?
Actually that's exactly the point, and exactly my concern. People do walk past those stores in malls and drive past them in free standing locations. They probably aren't in the market for a new car when that happens, but they see the sign, the shiny cars, the customers milling about, even if they are just tire kicking... those physical locations generate an impression that there is something "real" behind it, which is important for people buying a car. Those impressions can make the difference when people later *are* in the market for a car.

I'm concerned none of these intangibles have been accounted for, and it's all short term thinking.
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lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:54 am

WetEV wrote:
lorenfb wrote:Tesla by the numbers:

So for every vehicle (out-the-door"), Tesla gave away $4,000 of shareholder wealth.
Tesla was ramping up production in 2018. More costs, less profit while the production line was getting up to speed. Assuming 2019 is static production at the Q4 rate, costs will be lower and sales will be higher.

Tesla's price cuts are both excessive and poorly timed. Sure, bring out the base model. But cutting prices of the Model S was a mistake. Let volumes fall until a replacement model is released.
Remember, it was just a few months ago when Elon stated the M3 cost $38K to produce. Tesla lately has been able to reduce the
overhead, e.g. sale force reduction & closing stores, but the reduction in production costs have been less significant in the short
term. Without major battery cost improvements in the next 6-9 months, the M3 GP will be significantly less than in 2018 and the
actual sales volume increase (if it occurs) won't offset it. Again, the BEV mass market occurs at less than $25K, especially when
prospective buyers rationalize their perceived BEV negatives.
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 74K miles, 48 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F, (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 4.5K miles, 115 Ahrs, 5.5 miles/kWh (average), Hx=98, SOH=99, DOD > 20%, temp < 105F

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EVDRIVER
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Mar 05, 2019 9:20 am

LTLFTcomposite wrote:
EVDRIVER wrote:They also don’t track people that walk past the windows outside. What’s your point?
Actually that's exactly the point, and exactly my concern. People do walk past those stores in malls and drive past them in free standing locations. They probably aren't in the market for a new car when that happens, but they see the sign, the shiny cars, the customers milling about, even if they are just tire kicking... those physical locations generate an impression that there is something "real" behind it, which is important for people buying a car. Those impressions can make the difference when people later *are* in the market for a car.

I'm concerned none of these intangibles have been accounted for, and it's all short term thinking.
You asked about tracking it's simple they don't track people they don't see. Tracking has nothing to do with a store being there or not. They may still have mall showrooms, noting is decided yet.

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Mar 05, 2019 2:19 pm

GRA wrote:
EVDRIVER wrote:A large number of Tesla buyers have already sat i and driven the cars because they heard about them form friends, relatives, and neighbors and this is increasing at a fast pace.
If most people had that option that might be okay, but going forward Tesla has to expand beyond the early adopter crowd and their friends, and not having stores will slow that expansion. Teslas are common in the Bay Area and some other major metro areas in certain demographic groups, but not elsewhere.
They aren't common here in the mountains, by California standards, but I couldn't begin to guess how many rides and test drives I've given in my car. So, even out here in the boonies there are an increasing number of people who are familiar with Tesla. As the number of cars grows I would expect that awareness to grow as well. [There are about five Teslas in my rural county, population about 4500.]

Although many of the mall stores are closing, the galleries at the service centers should remain and test drives can be arranged there, for those so inclined. If closing the mall stores really does lead to a sales decline, as those here predict, it can be reversed.

Of more concern to me is the precipitous price lowering, which was much greater overseas than in the USA. It has some recent overseas purchasers hopping mad. Not the best way to build customer loyalty.
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EatsShootsandLeafs
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Mar 05, 2019 2:36 pm

dgpcolorado wrote:
GRA wrote:
EVDRIVER wrote:A large number of Tesla buyers have already sat i and driven the cars because they heard about them form friends, relatives, and neighbors and this is increasing at a fast pace.
If most people had that option that might be okay, but going forward Tesla has to expand beyond the early adopter crowd and their friends, and not having stores will slow that expansion. Teslas are common in the Bay Area and some other major metro areas in certain demographic groups, but not elsewhere.
They aren't common here in the mountains, by California standards, but I couldn't begin to guess how many rides and test drives I've given in my car. So, even out here in the boonies there are an increasing number of people who are familiar with Tesla. As the number of cars grows I would expect that awareness to grow as well. [There are about five Teslas in my rural county, population about 4500.]

Although many of the mall stores are closing, the galleries at the service centers should remain and test drives can be arranged there, for those so inclined. If closing the mall stores really does lead to a sales decline, as those here predict, it can be reversed.

Of more concern to me is the precipitous price lowering, which was much greater overseas than in the USA. It has some recent overseas purchasers hopping mad. Not the best way to build customer loyalty.
They'll break lease, lose staff. They cannot just immediately reopen.

If Tesla had money and genuinely thought that this was an intelligent approach--closing the locations--they would do so gradually. Close several--maybe shutter in a single state even--then track metrics in that geography to see what impact it has had. Why aren't they doing that? Because they don't have the time.

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Mar 05, 2019 4:40 pm

EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:They'll break lease, lose staff. They cannot just immediately reopen.
Don't forget the buildout. When you lease space in a mall, afaik you pay for all the interior finishing. That can't be cheap, and it doesn't happen overnight. (well actually it does happen largely at night, but not in one night)

Think about this: What did mall-goers think when they saw those stores? "Oh cool, check out the Teslas". What will they think when they see the stores are shuttered? "Tesla is out of business"

People on these forums are EV enthusiasts, evangelists, environmentally conscious, what-have-you. That's actually a pretty small pool to draw from, it only took a couple years for Nissan to drain it, then Tesla recycled many of those buyers when they found out the Leaf was crap. Tesla was able to grow the market beyond that with image, performance, branding and a story to create a larger pool of enthusiasts. They do no advertising. Do they expect the pool of buyers to grow organically from here?
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