Tesla by the numbers:
Gross sales for 2018 - $21B ($21 x 10^9)
Unit sales - 245,000 (2.45 x 10^5), ASP $84K
GP - $4B ($4 x 10^9)
GP($/vehicle) = $4 x 10^9 / 2.45 x 10^5 = $16.3K per vehicle
GP(%) = $4B / $21B = 19
GAAP (loss) = $1B ($10^9)
GAAP (loss/vehicle) = $10^9 / 2.5 x 10^5 = $4,000 per vehicle
So for every vehicle (out-the-door"), Tesla gave away $4,000 of shareholder wealth. Tesla is another potential Apple/Amazon, right?
And what would one expect long term given that Tesla is basically operating with an automotive business model? And given that the
MS/MX sales have basically peaked at about 100K per year and now with a price cut, and the M3 new volume price (~ $35k - $40K) is down,
the outlook for 2019 is very marginal. Remember, Tesla vehicles at the present price point are still basically an inelastic product,
i.e. the M3 price reduction will not generate enough GP to result in a GAAP profitable Tesla in 2019! Let's not forget that CAPEX, R&D,
& other overhead must be paid for and just focus on GP per vehicle - as some do. By the way, where will the needed increase
in production capacity come from, assuming Tesla has reached its max at about 20-25K/month to achieve the needed profit to offset
the lower future ASP per vehicle, and that's notwithstanding marginal product demand?
2018: GP + Loss = Overhead = $4B + $1B = $5B
Assuming present Tesla at max capacity per year of 300K (25K/month);
Needed GP/vehicle = $5B / 300K = $17,000
Given the latest price MS/MX/M3 price reductions, Tesla most likely will have another GAAP loss for 2019 without more overhead reductions.
Here are the actual 2018 Tesla numbers; https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/fina ... -statement
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 74K miles, 48 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F, (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 4.5K miles, 115 Ahrs, 5.5 miles/kWh (average), Hx=98, SOH=99, DOD > 20%, temp < 105F