GRA
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Mar 05, 2019 6:38 pm

Forbes:
Tesla's Online-Only Model Leaves Many Baffled
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremyalic ... 40f8d64800
. . . The legal argument…

On the day of the announcement, Musk held a private invitation-only conference call with journalists, who asked if the move would face opposition from state regulators that enforce franchise laws. Musk explained that online-only sales would allow Tesla to circumvent them, saying, “I’m sure the franchise dealers will try to oppose us in some way, but to do so would be a fundamental restraint on interstate commerce and violate the Constitution. So, good luck with that.”

The concept of using online sales to bypass franchise laws isn’t new to Tesla. In Texas, for example, where direct to consumer new vehicle sales are prohibited, customers must buy a vehicle online, then Tesla ships their car from states where it’s licensed to sell, like California. But if Tesla closes its retail locations in states where it legally operates, it’s not clear if it will lose its licensing. Leonard Bellavia, a lawyer and franchise law expert disagrees with Musk’s legal opinion, “The statement by Musk that state dealer franchise laws prohibiting factory direct sales are unconstitutional is an overly simplistic and rather bald-faced generalization.” And while Tesla plans to close its retail locations, it intends to expand its service network, which is also fraught with legal issues, according to Bellavia, “An online sale only model would require both a sales and service facility to satisfy state licensing authorities, which defeats the purpose of online sales.” Musk didn’t address the service-related legal issues in his announcement.


But Tesla’s legal issues aren’t limited to just franchise laws; there are also other state and local regulations that create a regulatory moat around online vehicle sales. In certain states and municipalities, a “wet signature” or in-person signature is required for some or all vehicle delivery paperwork. Finally, it’s also unclear how online-only sales will affect each state’s new car lemon laws, which were written based on sales occurring within the respective state.

Most car buyers aren’t ready to buy online…

Counter to the hype surrounding the predicted exodus of car buyers from dealership showrooms, the mainstream new car buyer is not ready for online-only vehicle sales. Last year, my consulting firm researched e-commerce consumer trends in the automotive industry, and after many interviews, we learned that while many new car buyers would prefer to buy online, a majority of transactions are still not well-suited for online sales. While the reasons will vary by customer segment, the explanations generally revolve around the ability to view and test drive a vehicle; review features and options in-person; the complexity of financing options and credit approval; the need for an in-stock vehicle; and finally, valuing a trade-in vehicle. In fact, more than 40% of new vehicles financed in the U.S. involved a trade; and while major advancements have been made in valuing trades remotely, in almost all scenarios, an in-person inspection is required to pay the highest amount to a consumer. . . .

Musk explains "You can now return a car within 7 days or 1,000 miles for a full refund. Quite literally, you could buy a Tesla, drive several hundred miles for a weekend road trip with friends and then return it for free.” But as someone who oversaw an extended test drive program with the BMW 7 series only a few years back, I can attest that these programs often cost more than they achieve, while also attracting chronic abuse from non-buyers. While Tesla will likely initiate safeguards to prevent abuse like I witnessed, such as requiring full payment upfront, it remains unclear how Model 3 customers can “test drive” vehicles without undergoing major inconveniences if they wish to return them. Being responsible for sales tax (which is likely not refundable by state law) as well as the vehicle depreciation (as the vehicle is considered used once registered) are just two issues. It’s also uncertain how these customers will be able to purchase a different vehicle as their credit will be weakened before/during the refund process and likely weeks after. Some experts claim that Tesla is biased by its experience with Model S and X customers, which have an average income nearly 50% higher than the typical luxury car owner. These high-earners have more flexibility than the Model 3 buyers, including (in most cases) having another vehicle at home, and are, therefore, better able to adapt to the uncertainties and inconveniences of online-only sales. But the Model 3 mass market customer needs a vehicle to go to work and perform other everyday functions and is, therefore, more restricted by vehicle downtime while also being more financially constrained. . . .

Many industry experts feel that the online-only model is not yet viable for a mass-produced vehicle, and they also question if it will improve Tesla’s profitability. But it is certain that this new approach will create obstacles that could dampen Tesla’s efforts to sell the Model 3 at a time when the fledgling automaker needs to achieve scale to function as a viable automaker. While it’s left to speculation, many predict that Tesla’s online move will be clarified over the coming weeks as Tesla consumers and investors become increasingly concerned.
I see the stock's down another 3%.
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EVDRIVER
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Mar 05, 2019 9:52 pm

Yes from the Chinese FUD docs so institutional investors can buy. Did you see the huge buys. Talk about a rigged stock.

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Mar 06, 2019 4:59 am

This made the local news earlier tonight.

Tesla cutting more jobs at Fremont factory
Filing shows where dozens more positions to be slashed this month
https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/03/05/ ... t-factory/
Tesla will cut 81 more jobs at its Fremont plant, bringing the total layoffs this month at its main factory to 883.

The additional job cuts, revealed in an updated filing with California’s Employment Development Department dated March 1, mostly target service technicians and tech support specialists.

Another new filing shows the company is getting rid of four more positions in Lathrop, bringing the total cuts at that location to 141.

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Mar 06, 2019 6:06 am

cwerdna wrote:This made the local news earlier tonight.

Tesla cutting more jobs at Fremont factory
Filing shows where dozens more positions to be slashed this month
https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/03/05/ ... t-factory/
Musk June 2018 on job cuts: “I also want to emphasize that we are making this hard decision now so that we never have to do this again.”

Since then he's had two additional rounds of layoffs.

There is also a reporter for Fox business saying he talked to Execs at tesla who say they don't need a capital raise now but will in coming months if business doesn't improve.

Let's not forget there was a time last year that Tesla was weeks away from death. Is that short FUD stuff? Nope, that's musk's own words.

https://money.usnews.com/investing/stoc ... th-in-2018

Meanwhile the stock trades obliviously along at a $40-50B market cap. That simply doesn't reflect the risk realistically.

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Mar 07, 2019 8:40 am

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/07/tesla-l ... eveal.html

Tesla doesn't know where it will build the Model Y as it rolls out more layoffs and cost cuts

How does the market react? TSLA up today of course!

This Model Y reveal is a pure money grab and desperate effort to renew hype as the company faces a huge operating squeeze. If they take reservations I want to look closely at Musk's face to see if he blushes while he announces that.

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Mar 07, 2019 9:03 am

EatsShootsandLeafs wrote: Tesla doesn't know where it will build the Model Y
according to six current and former employees

Well you can't get any more authoritative than that!
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EVDRIVER
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:21 am

EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/07/tesla-l ... eveal.html

Tesla doesn't know where it will build the Model Y as it rolls out more layoffs and cost cuts

How does the market react? TSLA up today of course!

This Model Y reveal is a pure money grab and desperate effort to renew hype as the company faces a hug perating squeeze. If they take reservations I want to look closely at Musk's face to see if he blushes while he announces that.
You need to read through the FUD. Tesla is a highly manipulated stock, if you do your research you can make a bunch off day trading it and you will see what's really going on.

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Mar 07, 2019 12:14 pm

Long contended that Tesla should have stayed in the luxury car arena and concentrated more on the electrified trucking. That arena is unlimited. Don't be surprised if cities start banning smoking diesels if Tesla pulls off the last mile. They will be able to afford to do anything then.

But Musk's desire to "do all, be all" has put Tesla in a bad position stretched too far in too many directions. Hate to say it, but the T3 will be the ruin of them... (still an awesome car though)
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EVDRIVER
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Mar 07, 2019 1:37 pm

DaveinOlyWA wrote:Long contended that Tesla should have stayed in the luxury car arena and concentrated more on the electrified trucking. That arena is unlimited. Don't be surprised if cities start banning smoking diesels if Tesla pulls off the last mile. They will be able to afford to do anything then.

But Musk's desire to "do all, be all" has put Tesla in a bad position stretched too far in too many directions. Hate to say it, but the T3 will be the ruin of them... (still an awesome car though)
When will the T3 be made? No Idea there was another between the M3 and MY.

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Mar 09, 2019 2:23 pm

Interesting read:
Tesla investors often lean on the company's green energy ideology as a reason to invest in its equity. The sooner investors understand that you can support
an all electric future with alternative energy, while still being critical of Tesla as an investment, the better. I lay out my case as to why and how investors must separate
the ideology from the investment. To say that there's an air of confusion between supporters of Tesla (TSLA) and critics of the company from an investment standpoint
would be a vast understatement. Sure, Tesla has its investment advocates, including people like ARK Invest's Cathie Wood, who believes that the stock is worth $4,000
per share, but many people who invest in Tesla stock appear to be ideologues first and investors second. Don’t get me wrong, there are plenty of qualified and intelligent
investors who are long the company. Take Fidelity, for instance, or even famed short seller Andrew Left of Citron Research. But it was evident through a recent conversation
that I had in the YouTube comments of one of my podcasts that people just don’t really understand why there are critics of this company to begin with, especially
if Musk’s vision is truly to change the world for the better.
A video of the two hosts, both ardent Tesla supporters, has been making its way around social media over the last couple of weeks. The video is of the two of them
being baffled that Tesla stock was falling following the news of the $35,000 Model 3 announcement. This was then followed by horrifically erroneous analysis and assertions
on how the capital markets work and why stocks move higher and lower. The clip shows the two hosts, seemingly devoid of knowledge on capital markets, resorting to a
conspiracy theory that oil companies must be shorting Tesla stock to explain why it is moving lower (play the lower video).
https://seekingalpha.com/article/424754 ... investment
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