LeftieBiker
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu May 16, 2019 3:08 am

So, that's 16 topics this week, some of which have multiple posts, and besides the one OT topic about Tim Conway all are EV or environmentally related and put in the appropriate sub-forums.


There is a Tim Conway topic? I haven't seen it appear...
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GRA
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu May 16, 2019 4:45 pm

Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

cwerdna
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri May 17, 2019 1:39 am

Tesla is buckling down for some 'hard-core' cost-cutting, report says
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/elon ... t-cutting/

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EatsShootsandLeafs
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri May 17, 2019 4:26 am

cwerdna wrote:Tesla is buckling down for some 'hard-core' cost-cutting, report says
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/elon ... t-cutting/

Writing is on the wall.

I expect sub $200 stock this year. I promised myself I would not touch options on TSLA again due to the premium across the board and the strange behavior of the stock over the years, but there is my prediction. It could hit sub $200 very quickly.

Another autopilot death confirmed today, stock down again substantially in premarket. I also saw a pie chart of who owns the shares in this stock and the percentage of retail investors as increased (read: bagholders).

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri May 17, 2019 4:37 am

Top Tesla Investor T. Rowe Price reports that it sold 81% of its Tesla (TSLA) shares year-to-date in Brutal Rebuke to Elon Musk.
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EatsShootsandLeafs
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri May 17, 2019 11:40 am

Down 6%+ today, no end in sight.

I will repeat as I have before: anybody long this stock should not be. The price premium is too high and does not make sense for a company that still has no realistic path to profitability. Its main strategy at this point appears to be the hyperbolic claims of its CEO.

You had time to get out of your long position. You still do. Q2 will probably be much like Q1: horrific, with massive losses. They cannot raise cash forever. There is tremendous risk holding this stock.

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri May 17, 2019 12:27 pm

The Tesla gross profit issue:

An automaker’s warranty provision – like warranty costs incurred – is commonly part of COGS and thus it directly affects automotive gross margin. Reducing warranty provisions inflates it and many observers, including me, speculate that Tesla subsumes warranty costs in part under SG&A or the precariously deficitary services and other segment, discussed below, in order to inflate automotive gross margin further.

Unlike its peers, Tesla includes neither R&D nor the operation of its own dealerships in automotive cost of revenue. The gross margin metric also is a driver for the CEO’s stock option awards. Analysts have so far refrained from questioning Tesla’s highly problematic gross margin calculation and thus heavily skewed industry peer comparison in conference calls and research notes. For Q1 2019 automotive gross margin would have come in at 15.6% instead of 20.2%, a material difference of about 25%.


And about Tesla’s in-house chip design capability:

Despite decades of American IC design, layout and fabrication prowess, with short-term involvement of Jim Keller of Apple and AMD IC design fame, Tesla insisted that it had to turn to Chinese experts in order to obtain the “brain” that's instrumental in its Level 5 autonomous driving effort, replacing Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) as a supplier. The company stated: “For a product as safety critical to consumers, and critical to the essence of Tesla, we turned to industry experts who could achieve this quality and complexity in addition to the deadlines, which was not possible outside of China.” On 3rd May, U.S. trade officials rejected Tesla’s bid for relief from President Trump’s 25% tariffs on Chinese exports to the U.S., on its Chinese-made “brain” for Model 3.


And with regard to the EV market growth:

A side effect of un-coordinated governmental intervention is that it often promotes, possibly inadvertently, expensive, oversized, overweight and thus highly unsustainable BEVs, making them particularly attractive for wealthy households that often purchase EVs as a secondary or even tertiary vehicle – as a material feel-good icon that shall demonstrate their concern for the environment. However, wanting to better the world by way of oversized overweight BEVs amounts to nothing but arriving at the beach to drain the ocean with a teaspoon.
The main barriers to EV adoption, particularly in sales regions with low or no subsidies, incentives and benefits, are high price and insurance premiums, followed by range, particularly during the winter season, and the lack of ubiquitous and convenient city and roadside charging infrastructure. The existing strata of high net worth individuals in the aforementioned global growth regions are too small to effect a swift substantial fleet rotation away from ICEVs. For most consumers in those regions, used cars and low-priced ICEVs will remain the dominant vehicle type of choice, the car being the costliest discretionary purchase for most households.


And then there’s the guidance issue:

On 30th January 2019, Tesla’s CEO stated in the Q4 2018 shareholder letter that the company expects to deliver 360,000 to 400,000 cars in 2019. A few hours later, Tesla’s CEO said on the Q4 2018 earnings call that the company will deliver 350,000 to 500,000 Model 3s in 2019. On 19th February, Tesla’s CEO tweeted Tesla will make around 500,000 cars in 2019 to then tweet Tesla will rather achieve a 500,000 car production run-rate at the end of 2019. On 28th February, Tesla’s CEO said on a call with journalists that the company will produce 420,000 to 600,000 cars in 2019. On 3rd April 2019, Tesla’s CEO stated in the Q1 2019 shareholder letter that the company expects to deliver 360,000 to 400,000 cars in 2019, as initially stated in January. Erratic management guidance for core product production and sales does certainly not help to restore investor confidence.


https://seekingalpha.com/article/426491 ... ?dr=1#alt2

Care to refute, discount the source, or the typical ad hominem?
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EatsShootsandLeafs
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon May 20, 2019 4:02 am

Zythryn wrote:
EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:...

This company is on the ropes. It truly is on its back. It's unbelievable to me still that it is still valued at $45B. Tesla is at a critical point. Within weeks they will be out of money unless they raise more cash.

...


You really are just trolling here aren't you?
First, why be vague? Care to nail down what "within weeks" means? 3 weeks, or 3000 weeks?
As you already noted, Tesla has already indicated they are considering raising cash, however they could have three more quarters just like this one and not be out of cash.
So with that in mind, I don't see them running out of cash within "weeks".

How does that crow taste?

TSLA pre-market down to three bucks over $200. When I wrote the post you accused of being trolling the stock was ~$260. Stock is actively imploding over the past month. In the last five it's down 45%.

I also said they had to raise cash within weeks, which they did this month, for the reason I said they had to. Musk last week admitted at current burn they only have ten months left. Of course, as usual, he's wildly optimistic. Q2 will be another nightmare most likely.

News from Tesla has been terrible for many months now but longs have insisted on ignoring it, some even "buying the dip".

The retail investors will be the ones holding the bags. Institutional investors are wisening up and offloading their positions.

cwerdna
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon May 20, 2019 4:04 am

EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:Down 6%+ today, no end in sight.

I will repeat as I have before: anybody long this stock should not be. The price premium is too high and does not make sense
...
Its main strategy at this point appears to be the hyperbolic claims of its CEO.

Looks like the next level of support is around $180. If it goes below that, then looks like the next one is at around $140.

Agree with the part I quoted. Often, TSLA's price upward moves and trends are totally irrational.

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon May 20, 2019 4:33 am

Is this thread about tesla's corporate outlook, or their stock price?

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