EatsShootsandLeafs
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Jun 03, 2019 10:24 am

Musk has fabricated a new price point for the upcoming truck to nobody's interest (I won't even mention it because it doesn't matter/is fake). Stock new 52 week lows today, under $180 now. I think the company is looking at an exitential crisis and they desperately need Q2 to be successful to avoid the stock continuing its implosion.

With their cash burn rate leaving them only several months of expenditures before running out of cash, if they cannot get profitable and maintain (and they can't), they will have to raise again, causing yet more stock dilution.

GRA
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Jun 03, 2019 6:08 pm

I thought I posted these yesterday but that post seems to have disappeared, so will try again. These are from a week or so ago. From May 24th:
Investors Helped Build Tesla. They Could Undo It, Too.
Producing a mass-market car takes cash, which is hard to find when sentiment turns and the stock swoons
http://archive.is/HDaoh

Apologies if anyone posted this info before, but I didn't see it - it's from May 21st:
Tesla cuts base price of new Model S and Model X vehicles
https://electrek.co/2019/05/21/tesla-price-model-s-x-changes/

For standard versions, down $2k for S, $3k for X.

And this is an hour old, unfortunately not available yet outside of a paywall:
Tesla Faces Skepticism About Depth of Demand
Auto maker says consumer interest remains despite sales decline, concerns about meeting future goals
:https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-careens-from-growth-story-to-demand-worries-11559564700
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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EVDRIVER
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:26 pm

EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:With their cash burn rate leaving them only several months of expenditures before running out of cash, if they cannot get profitable and maintain (and they can't), they will have to raise again, causing yet more stock dilution.


Please show me where you got that info. Please quote the fact not a misquoted FUD statement. The Tesla regurgitated nonsense is laughable.

webb14leafs
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:01 am

EVDRIVER wrote:
EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:With their cash burn rate leaving them only several months of expenditures before running out of cash, if they cannot get profitable and maintain (and they can't), they will have to raise again, causing yet more stock dilution.


Please show me where you go that info. Please quote the fact not a misquoted FUD statement. The Tesla regurgitated nonsense is laughable.


Last I read was that Tesla had 10 months of cash left at their Q1 burn rate. I think that might have been from Elon himself, but don't quote me. That's just simple math. Hard to think their current burn rate (was it about $700M in Q1??) will continue forward for much longer. Plus, it's not like that burn rate is due to product losses. It's primarily due to capital expenditures.

Make no mistake. Tesla is in a race like we've rarely seen. They barely have enough cash to get their products to market. Once they get to market they have solid sales and margins. They need more product lines to get to self-sustaining profitability and growth. I personally think they will get there, but the bears have plenty of solid reasons to think otherwise.

Noone has a crystal ball, and pretending one does just makes one sound like an idiot.

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EVDRIVER
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:32 am

webb14leafs wrote:
EVDRIVER wrote:
EatsShootsandLeafs wrote:With their cash burn rate leaving them only several months of expenditures before running out of cash, if they cannot get profitable and maintain (and they can't), they will have to raise again, causing yet more stock dilution.


Please show me where you go that info. Please quote the fact not a misquoted FUD statement. The Tesla regurgitated nonsense is laughable.


Last I read was that Tesla had 10 months of cash left at their Q1 burn rate. I think that might have been from Elon himself, but don't quote me. That's just simple math. Hard to think their current burn rate (was it about $700M in Q1??) will continue forward for much longer. Plus, it's not like that burn rate is due to product losses. It's primarily due to capital expenditures.

Make no mistake. Tesla is in a race like we've rarely seen. They barely have enough cash to get their products to market. Once they get to market they have solid sales and margins. They need more product lines to get to self-sustaining profitability and growth. I personally think they will get there, but the bears have plenty of solid reasons to think otherwise.

Noone has a crystal ball, and pretending one does just makes one sound like an idiot.



What you read was a quote that was altered by FUD sites that twisted his words. He never said that. Tesla's biggest issue is disinformation and short sellers, the vast majority of what you read is twisted to fit a narrative and not fact. People here still insist on spreading lies about the technical features of the cars and people take it as fact. Reminds me of some "news" organizations.

webb14leafs
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Jun 04, 2019 6:27 am

EVDRIVER wrote:
webb14leafs wrote:
EVDRIVER wrote:
Please show me where you go that info. Please quote the fact not a misquoted FUD statement. The Tesla regurgitated nonsense is laughable.


Last I read was that Tesla had 10 months of cash left at their Q1 burn rate. I think that might have been from Elon himself, but don't quote me. That's just simple math. Hard to think their current burn rate (was it about $700M in Q1??) will continue forward for much longer. Plus, it's not like that burn rate is due to product losses. It's primarily due to capital expenditures.

Make no mistake. Tesla is in a race like we've rarely seen. They barely have enough cash to get their products to market. Once they get to market they have solid sales and margins. They need more product lines to get to self-sustaining profitability and growth. I personally think they will get there, but the bears have plenty of solid reasons to think otherwise.

Noone has a crystal ball, and pretending one does just makes one sound like an idiot.



What you read was a quote that was altered by FUD sites that twisted his words. He never said that. Tesla's biggest issue is disinformation and short sellers, the vast majority of what you read is twisted to fit a narrative and not fact. People here still insist on spreading lies about the technical features of the cars and people take it as fact. Reminds me of some "news" organizations.


First off - I hope you didn't think I was criticizing you in my last post. It was in no way directed toward you. I apologize if it came off that way.

The math is pretty simple. I think their burn rate was $700M over Q1. They raised a little over $2B. That equals roughly 3 quarters of cash burn. That's overly simplistic though, as their burn rate is not constant, and should decrease as capital builds are completed.

I try to ignore the news and focus on the math. I think it's funny that Q1 was perceived as a massive failure. I saw plenty of positives. There's a reason why Tesla can raise billions of dollars in outside capital at the drop of a hat. The company still has a very clear runway to massive profitability.

lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:23 am

Another perspective of Tesla's "profitability":

https://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/ ... s-solvent/
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 74K miles, 48 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F (35C), min discharge (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 115 Ahrs, 5.5 miles/kWh (average), Hx=98, SOH=99, DOD > 25%, temp < 105F

WetEV
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:32 am

lorenfb wrote:Another perspective of Tesla's "profitability":

https://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/ ... s-solvent/


Zerohedge is a very poor source.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Ivandjiiski
WetEV
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Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
2012 Leaf SL Red (Totaled)
2014 Leaf SL Red

lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:42 am

WetEV wrote:
lorenfb wrote:Another perspective of Tesla's "profitability":

https://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/ ... s-solvent/


Zerohedge is a very poor source.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Ivandjiiski


The data source is Tesla! Are you inferring it's inaccurate? If so, what's the correct Tesla ZEV data?

And then this source just lately;

https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/d ... connection
Last edited by lorenfb on Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
#1 Leaf SL MY 9/13: 74K miles, 48 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 - 100% > 1000, temp < 95F (35C), min discharge (DOD) > 20 Ahrs
#2 Leaf SL MY 12/18: 115 Ahrs, 5.5 miles/kWh (average), Hx=98, SOH=99, DOD > 25%, temp < 105F

webb14leafs
Posts: 248
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:45 am

lorenfb wrote:Another perspective of Tesla's "profitability":

https://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/ ... s-solvent/


What's your point? Again, this is all about perspective. You can read this as 1 - "The only reason Tesla has avoided bankruptcy is by selling tax credits," or 2 - "Wow, Tesla makes a lot of money selling tax credits! This should be a significant and growing revenue source for decades."

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