User avatar
evnow
Moderator
Posts: 11423
Joined: Thu Apr 22, 2010 11:41 am
Delivery Date: 25 Feb 2011
Leaf Number: 303
Location: Seattle, WA

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Aug 13, 2015 7:10 pm

Ultimately all this doesn't matter. What people will remember is how good or bad X is.

But I hope it is worth all the delays and resulting cash flow issues.
1st Leaf : 2/28/2011 to 5/6/2013
2nd Leaf : 5/4/2013 to 3/21/2017
Volt : 3/25/2017 to ?

epirali
Posts: 581
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2013 10:15 am
Delivery Date: 08 Oct 2013
Leaf Number: 418541
Location: Maryland

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Aug 13, 2015 9:47 pm

JasonA wrote:I just love all the haters... and we know who you are... :roll:

Is Tesla losing $4000 per car sold? Nope, it’s capital investment for future sales


http://longtailpipe.com/2015/08/11/is-tesla-losing-4000-per-car-sold-nope-its-capital-investment-for-future-sales/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

Trolls are gonna troll..


First pointing out facts is not trolling, this word is highly misused here.

Second: both these facts are true and not mutually exclusive.

Tesla IS losing $4000/car sold in the quarter. Tesla IS putting money toward infrastructure causing the loss. The reason the loss is important is because of two reasons:

1) infrastructure expenditure CAN payoff assuming it is used in future to make MORE money than is spend on it. Obviously good investment in that case. But it is nor guaranteed and can't be known until later.

2) but 1) causes cash shortfall now. This has consequences and risks. It's not unplanned, or out of control. But it's also true.

3) if investors believe 1) is a good plan with more payoff than 2) there will always be new money to keep going. If that changes 2) will put you out of business.

IMHO and based on stock prices 3) is not the case at this time. But the launch of X, the sales, and time to Model 3 and response will impact 3.

So there is real risk, but it's required to be a growth company and a vision. And no, pointing any of this out, or saying there is real risk, is NOT trolling.

Zythryn
Posts: 941
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2010 4:49 am

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Aug 14, 2015 4:55 am

It IS misleading though.
Saying Tesla is loosing $4000 for every car sold implies the cars are sold at a loss.
At first glance, many that don't know the details, would think, "they should sell fewer cars until they can sell them at a profit".
Where the reality is they should sell as many cars as they can to make more profit.

A less misleading statement would be, "Tesla makes 250 Million selling cars, and looses 150 Million dollars" (replace numbers with the real ones of course).
Previous owner of Prius, Volt & Leaf
Current owner of Model S
http://www.netzeromn.com

epirali
Posts: 581
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2013 10:15 am
Delivery Date: 08 Oct 2013
Leaf Number: 418541
Location: Maryland

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Aug 14, 2015 6:52 am

Zythryn wrote:It IS misleading though.
Saying Tesla is loosing $4000 for every car sold implies the cars are sold at a loss.
At first glance, many that don't know the details, would think, "they should sell fewer cars until they can sell them at a profit".
Where the reality is they should sell as many cars as they can to make more profit.

A less misleading statement would be, "Tesla makes 250 Million selling cars, and looses 150 Million dollars" (replace numbers with the real ones of course).


Fair enough. I guess I personally always jump past the headline in anything of interest, so I mistakenly assume so does everyone else.

edatoakrun
Posts: 4643
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 9:33 am
Delivery Date: 15 May 2011
Leaf Number: 2184
Location: Shasta County, North California

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Aug 14, 2015 4:14 pm

Tesla was honored yesterday with an entry in the FTAlphaville :

This is nuts. When's the crash? series.
This is Tesla. When does Musk crash?

...Tesla Motors, the loss making manufacturer of electric cars, has announced plans to sell an additional 2.1m shares to its investors, to raise $0.5bn in cash.

After raising the cash to help build a so-called “gigafactory” Tesla will have 130m shares in issue. At $245 per share the company is worth $32bn, about nine times annual sales. It expects to deliver as many as 55,000 cars this year.

Tesla has aspirations to be a significant manufacturer of batteries, as well as introducing a third model of electric car, which requires investment, about $1.5bn for this year alone, it predicts. We previously calculated Tesla had spent $3.1bn on capex and research and development up to the end of 2014, which works out to about $40,000 per car sold, so far.

At the end of June the company had access to $750m in bank funding lines, but has also said it may raise cash when the opportunity arises. Shareholders appear to like the opportunism, and the mild dilution, bidding up the price of the stock by 2 per cent, at pixel.

For anyone pleased to see Mr Musk investing alongside them, may we draw your attention to his remuneration. The CEO, PA & COB was granted 5.3m stock options in August 2012, vesting in ten “tranches”. As of the end of June, six of the tranches had been approved, and a further three were considered probable to be achieved.

Some might suggest the Tesla stock price is far more important to Mr Musk’s fortune than the impact of $20m spent in a symbolic show of support to the latest fundraising.

Indeed, according to the most recent quarterly...

The possibility of margin calls causing Mr Musk to sell stock, in the event of a share price decline, is listed as a risk factor by Tesla....

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/08/13/2 ... usk-crash/

The response to this offering by TSLA shareholders was a resounding:

Thank you sir! ...and may I have another?

Which was promptly accommodated by the veritable murderer's row of investment banks working together on the TSLA project:

Tesla Motors Inc. on Friday boosted the size of its stock offering, unveiled just a day earlier, by more than $140 million...

The new round of fundraising that suggests the cost of disrupting the global auto industry with its pricey electric vehicles is more expensive than Chief Executive Elon Musk initially thought...

While the Palo Alto, Calif., auto maker consistently has expanded revenue during that two-year period, its net losses have deepened. And the company continues to burn large sums of cash on capacity expansions and new products.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-boost ... 1439551803
no condition is permanent

dm33
Posts: 669
Joined: Sat May 18, 2013 4:43 am
Delivery Date: 31 May 2013
Location: Raleigh, NC

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri Aug 14, 2015 9:58 pm

cwerdna wrote:
dm33 wrote:
cwerdna wrote:Do also keep in mind that although Tesla is a very new car company compared to the "Big 3" in the US in and Japan, they were founded in 2003 (http://www.teslamotors.com/about).

And GM loses a bunch of money on every Volt sold despite having recently been bailed out.

But the Volt is just a tiny drop in the bucket vs. the rest of their US vehicle sales.

And per http://www.gm.com/content/gmcom/home/co ... eases.html, GM had net income of (positive) $1.1 billion last quarter.

Per http://media.gm.com/content/dam/Media/g ... y-2015.pdf from http://www.gm.com/content/gmcom/home/co ... ction.html, in the US, YTD, 6,935 Volts were sold YTD out of GM's 1.78 million vehicles sold YTD in the US.

Thats exactly why Tesla needs to spend lots of money; to build up a business. GM has mountains of income so it can throw away money in electric cars even if it doesn't want to build them.
Tesla has to build good electric cars because thats their entire business.
No one said its easy to build a car company. GM has a 107 year head start, having been founded in 1908. The US Government helped bail GM out but helping dismiss its debt and obligations to former employees in 2009 when GM went backrupt.

epirali
Posts: 581
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2013 10:15 am
Delivery Date: 08 Oct 2013
Leaf Number: 418541
Location: Maryland

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Aug 15, 2015 3:45 am

A good read if anyone cares, nothing new just well summarized:

"This is the best time for Tesla to sell $500 million in stock"

http://uk.businessinsider.com/r-tesla-s ... ?r=US&IR=T

lorenfb
Posts: 1310
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Aug 15, 2015 11:20 am

Should be interesting to see how the stock market responses on 10/1 which is the beginning of Q4. 9/30
is the most recent "slip date" announced for Model X deliveries. Previously the deliveries were to begin
within Q3. But now that we're half way through Q3, it's now the last day of Q3. Luckily for Elon, 9/30 is
the middle of the week and not on a Sunday.

epirali
Posts: 581
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2013 10:15 am
Delivery Date: 08 Oct 2013
Leaf Number: 418541
Location: Maryland

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Aug 15, 2015 11:24 am

lorenfb wrote:Should be interesting to see how the stock market responses on 9/30 which is the end of Q3 and when
the most recent "slip date" was announced for Model X deliveries. Previously the deliveries were to begin
within Q3. But now that we're half way through Q3, it's now the last day of Q3. Luckily for Elon, 9/30 is
the middle of the week and not on a Sunday.


I have seen both reports that they MAY get a few units out by end of September to meet the ship date, and I have seen a couple of reports that Tesla hasn't even started ordering the parts from subcontractors. Which with lead time would mean they are not starting the production lines any time soon.

But then again both of these may be true. They may have enough manufacturing samples of various parts to build a certain number of initial units and ship them before end of Q1.

None of this really matters much. It really comes down to when they can start shipping the backlog and recoup the investment dollars in form of cash flow. They have more then enough buffer that months of delay isn't going to threaten them.

But if you know you will take a perceptual and stock price hit from missing the deadline then it makes even more sense to sell now while the stock still is holding good valuation. This would be my guess, because if they were going to meet the ship date it would have made more sense to wait until AFTER the news of production start raised the value to sell new stock.

User avatar
dgpcolorado
Posts: 2955
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:56 pm
Delivery Date: 15 Dec 2011
Location: The Western Slope, Colorado

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Aug 15, 2015 12:28 pm

dm33 wrote:Thats exactly why Tesla needs to spend lots of money; to build up a business. GM has mountains of income so it can throw away money in electric cars even if it doesn't want to build them.
Tesla has to build good electric cars because thats their entire business...
While I take your point, Tesla Motors also has another business: selling Powerwalls. I haven't paid much attention to it, but my impression is that it is expected to be more profitable that selling cars.
...No one said its easy to build a car company. GM has a 107 year head start, having been founded in 1908. The US Government helped bail GM out but helping dismiss its debt and obligations to former employees in 2009 when GM went backrupt.
Yes. As one of the GM shareholders who had my position wiped out in that bankruptcy, I get very irritated when the new GM crows about its profits, some of which came from my pocket. I'm not a GM fan, to put it mildly...
Blue 2012 SV Dec 2011 to Feb 2016
CPO 2014 Tesla S60 Mar 2016
One car, no ICE, at last!
Tesla Referral Code

Return to “Other Electric Cars & Plug-In Hybrids”