dhanson865
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Aug 15, 2015 6:39 pm

epirali wrote: seen a couple of reports that Tesla hasn't even started ordering the parts from subcontractors.


for clarity those reports are about TSLA not signing or completing volume orders when the supplier expected. As in the supplier is leaking that to force negotiations to complete.

possibilities from that include:

A. They have enough parts to start limited production but haven't signed for volume parts delivery to keep from having cash outlay and parts piling up.

B. They are trying to decide between multiple vendors for a single part and one of them is leaking the story not knowing about the other vendor.

C. They are trying to decide between multiple vendors for a single part and one of them is leaking the story with full knowledge of the other vendor.

D. TSLA is trying to decide between building a part in house and buying from a vendor, and the vendor leaked the story not knowing they might blow their own deal.

of course everyone wants to read into the tea leaves whatever version fits their spin.
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epirali
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sun Aug 16, 2015 2:48 am

dhanson865 wrote:
epirali wrote: seen a couple of reports that Tesla hasn't even started ordering the parts from subcontractors.


for clarity those reports are about TSLA not signing or completing volume orders when the supplier expected. As in the supplier is leaking that to force negotiations to complete.

possibilities from that include:

A. They have enough parts to start limited production but haven't signed for volume parts delivery to keep from having cash outlay and parts piling up.

B. They are trying to decide between multiple vendors for a single part and one of them is leaking the story not knowing about the other vendor.

C. They are trying to decide between multiple vendors for a single part and one of them is leaking the story with full knowledge of the other vendor.

D. TSLA is trying to decide between building a part in house and buying from a vendor, and the vendor leaked the story not knowing they might blow their own deal.

of course everyone wants to read into the tea leaves whatever version fits their spin.

Exactly, which is exactly what you are doing right? Because I didn't spin anything. I said there were conflicting reports. Which is factual.

In my OPINION a) is likely and indicates they are not about to start mass production soon, b/c/d is not likely at all because it gains vendors nothing and potentially cost them a lot. And from what I read the report (which may be inaccurate) was implying that the contracts with selected vendors were not yet issued, it wasn't a selection process.

Also I noted that it really has little material impact as they have a lot of cash, but it impacts perception and stock prices which may explain the round of stock sale now before Sep 30 deadline passes.

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Aug 17, 2015 11:01 am

Interesting article, I am putting a BIG WARNING that the title is extremely and inappropriately alarmist. And it doesn't even match the content of the article. The content is actually a good read IMHO, not sure why they went with that title (click bait?). And this is on a day where Tesla stock is doing quit nicely.

Nice brief history of the story so far and the opportunity ahead. In case you don't believe it here is how it ends (spoilers):

"It's a cliche to say that every crisis is also an opportunity. But for Tesla, its latest crisis will finally force the world see the company for what it truly is.

And what it truly is could actually change the world."


http://uk.businessinsider.com/tesla-is- ... ?r=US&IR=T

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Aug 18, 2015 1:37 pm

Many of us remember in early 2014 when Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley wrote a few analyst reports hyping
Tesla's future stock price. Shortly thereafter, Morgan Stanley participated in the sale of the $1.5B convertible
bond offering, i.e. the capital infusion that Panasonic was to match for Giga, but as yet has only provided about
$200M.

As of late per this thread, Tesla plans a new stock offering to generate needed working capital. And guess what
brokerage firm and analyst just recently hyped the stock and predicts a price of $465 based on a self-driving
vehicle. Could this be another quid pro quo to participate in the stock offering? So coincidental, isn't it though?

Seems the stock rose on the news, so both the Wall Street firms and Tesla both win. Have to love the "Random
Walk Theory" we learned in biz school, right?

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Aug 22, 2015 7:09 am

Although its already known that MBZ will drop Tesla as their battery supplier, I didn't know how much these battery sales were as part of Tesla revenues ... 11% !!

The contract with Mercedes accounts for about 11% of Tesla’s accounts receivable, according to a writer at Seeking Alpha. The company’s latest 10-K filing with the SEC says:

Powertrain component and related sales for the periods presented were related to powertrain component sales to Daimler under the Mercedes-Benz B-Class Electric Drive program which commenced in April 2014 and to Toyota under the RAV4 EV program. Powertrain component and related sales for the years ended December 31, 2014, 2013 and 2012 were $113.3 million, $45.1 million and $31.4 million. During the third quarter of 2014, we completed the RAV4 EV program.

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dhanson865
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Aug 22, 2015 10:32 am

redLEAF wrote:Although its already known that MBZ will drop Tesla as their battery supplier, I didn't know how much these battery sales were as part of Tesla revenues ... 11% !!


Which will be more than offset by the new sales to home and industrial power storage.

They'll have a steady cashflow with a ~15% profit per powerpack sold. Expecting to sell hundreds of millions dollars worth of packs in 2016.

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/call-transcr ... transcript

if you just take the reservations that have been made thus far, it's well over $1 billion worth of Powerpacks and Powerwalls. So – and that's with no marketing, no advertising, no sales force to speak of, really, we're not trying to sell it, it's basically a presentation and a webcast and 30 minutes of press Q&A.

So there's probably room to improve. So this is – I mean, really, we're basically sold out of what we could make in 2016 at this point. And assuming these orders are real, which they seem to be. So were looking at maybe, again, just to preface with meaningful uncertainty, $40 million to $45 million in stationary storage in Q4 and maybe as much as 10 times that number in for next year. So it's $40 million to $50 million that this year and 10x of that next year. And I mean that growth rate is probably going to just, keep going at quite a nutty level. It's probably at least a few billion dollars in 2017, somewhat speculative at this point, but I think that's likely. So it's sort of growing by half order of magnitude to an order of magnitude per year.


Colin Michael Langan - UBS Securities LLC

Okay. And just last question, how should we think about the margin profile over the next few years as this ramps? I believe you said Q4 would be pretty low. Should that meaningfully improve and when do you kind of get parity with your gross margin on the auto side?


Elon Reeve Musk - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

We are getting quite speculative about the battery business, but – what's that? I can't read your writing. Oh, 15%? Yeah, I think – yeah, I mean, in the early days, the battery gross margins that are on the order of 15%, over time that could rise to 25% or maybe 30%. But we just don't know that quite yet. And we'd have to look at what the price elasticity of demand is to understand where should we be pricing and what's the right gross margin to hit for.
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Aug 22, 2015 5:26 pm

there is a reason Tesla does not report sales or its finances the same way other car companies do and its because it would destroy their cash cow of promoting hype
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Aug 22, 2015 5:38 pm

redLEAF wrote:The contract with Mercedes accounts for about 11% of Tesla’s accounts receivable, according to a writer at Seeking Alpha. The company’s latest 10-K filing with the SEC says:

You mean according to Anton, who shorts TSLA ?
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Aug 22, 2015 10:54 pm

dhanson865 wrote:
Which will be more than offset by the new sales to home and industrial power storage.

They'll have a steady cashflow with a ~15% profit per powerpack sold. Expecting to sell hundreds of millions dollars worth of packs in 2016.


Right, just like when Tesla forecasts (hyperbole) its future and:

1. Becomes profitable in 2015/16 by projected Model X sales;
2. Becomes additionally profitable in 2017 by projected Model 3 sales;
3. Becomes exceptionally profitable in 2020 by selling 500K to a million BEVs.

Dream on!

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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Aug 22, 2015 11:39 pm

Your bias is showing, Dave... It is not becoming on you.

DaveinOlyWA wrote:there is a reason Tesla does not report sales or its finances the same way other car companies do and its because it would destroy their cash cow of promoting hype
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