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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:33 am
by lorenfb
LTLFTcomposite wrote:
lorenfb wrote:It's actually simpler than that - Tesla needs a volume vehicle (Model 3) for long term survival!

Hopefully for their sake they're figuring out how to do that profitably, losing money on each car and making up for it with volume is a flawed strategy :lol:

I'm no expert in such matters, but I think the goal from a marketing perspective is to draw more people into the brand via the lower cost offering, then over time some percentage of those customers aspire to the "luxury" offerings where margins are fatter - you know, impressing people you don't like spending by spending money you don't have. At some point it could even require spinning off separate branding like Toyota/Lexus, Nissan/Infiniti, but that's a long ways down the road.


An OEM automotive company with two luxury vehicles (S & X) only and at their present volume, growth rate, and price points
isn't a long term viable business model. Obviously Model 3 needs to be profitable and not just from a gross profit standpoint
like Models S & X. Model 3 needs to "carry" the majority of Tesla's overhead structure long term.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2017 12:00 pm
by Zythryn
Not sure if it is over-exuberance over the better than expected first quarter deliveries (25k between S and X), a short squeeze, or both.
But TSLA is up about $18/share today.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2017 12:30 pm
by edatoakrun
Zythryn wrote:Not sure if it is over-exuberance over the better than expected first quarter deliveries (25k between S and X), a short squeeze, or both.
But TSLA is up about $18/share today.

As reported below, USA TSLA sales down over 20% from last quarter 2016, to only 10,400 vehicles:

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

So it would be interesting to see where the majority of those first quarter deliveries went, if and when that is reported.

Meanwhile, the debt market seems to be making a somewhat different assessment of TSLA...

Tesla's New Debt Is A Bunch Of Junk

Tesla raised cash by selling additional shares and a five year bond two weeks ago to help fund its Model 3 production. The largest portion was the bond, which in total raised $709 million when you take into account the underwriter’s fees and the amount used to hedge the potential dilutive impact of the debt being converted to shares. When taking these items into account the 2.375% interest rate balloons to almost 7%, which would put it in non-investment grade or junk category...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones ... 46f09769bb

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Mon Apr 03, 2017 3:32 pm
by Zythryn
edatoakrun wrote:
Zythryn wrote:Not sure if it is over-exuberance over the better than expected first quarter deliveries (25k between S and X), a short squeeze, or both.
But TSLA is up about $18/share today.

As reported below, USA TSLA sales down over 20% from last quarter 2016, to only 10,400 vehicles:

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

So it would be interesting to see where the majority of those first quarter deliveries went, if and when that is reported.

...


Seems rather simple to me, and obvious.
IF inside EVs estimate is accurate, the remaining vehicles were sold outside of the U.S.

As for being down over last quarter, I would be shocked if they weren't. EVs, almost universally, are down in the first quarter. End of year sales almost always surge. The Leaf first quarter sales are down 30% over fourth quarter.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Tue Apr 04, 2017 4:36 pm
by GRA
Via IEVS:
Tesla Stock Surpasses $300 For First Time Ever, Market Cap Jumps Past General Motors
http://insideevs.com/tesla-stock-surpas ... 2-billion/

At the close, it was $303.70.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Tue Apr 04, 2017 10:48 pm
by palmermd

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Wed Apr 05, 2017 7:39 am
by edatoakrun
Zythryn wrote:
edatoakrun wrote:
Zythryn wrote:Not sure if it is over-exuberance over the better than expected first quarter deliveries (25k between S and X), a short squeeze, or both.
But TSLA is up about $18/share today.

As reported below, USA TSLA sales down over 20% from last quarter 2016, to only 10,400 vehicles:

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

So it would be interesting to see where the majority of those first quarter deliveries went, if and when that is reported.

...


Seems rather simple to me, and obvious.
IF inside EVs estimate is accurate, the remaining vehicles were sold outside of the U.S...

At risk of asking you to look beyond the obvious, to where you think those deliveries were made?

Due to recent changes in TSLA financial reporting, there is an ongoing discussion of exactly what a Tesla delivery means in those markets where accurate reporting of vehicle sales is largely nonexistent, most significantly China.


Tesla And The One Word That Could Have Added $2.5 Billion To Its Market Cap


Summary

Tesla announced a great deliveries number over the weekend that beat estimates across the board.

However, peculiar wording of the company's press release prompts us to ask questions about "customers" versus "end customers".

We would love to hear a clear answer from the company, and we will remain skeptics until such time as we do...

If the company is changing the way it records this number, it is similar to a revenue recognition alteration that needs to be defined very clearly for shareholders so people don't get the impression that all of these vehicles are on the road and being driven around by Tesla customers when they are possibly sitting on a lot somewhere.

While we are not alleging that this is the case, we do find it more than peculiar that Tesla has changed this language. Again, when securities lawyers and counsel review these documents, there are usually very few changes that are made without good reason. We would be more than interested in hearing the reason, if there is any, for this language change...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/406017 ... market-cap

Since Tesla's sell in such tiny numbers, quarterly sales reports might of course also be easily manipulated, legitimately(?) with "end customers".

For example, increasing deliveries by a relative handful using corporate incentives or fleet buys would make the discussion above largely irrelevant.

Purely coincidental, I'm sure, that TSLA announced a major capital infusion from Tencent just last week:


Tesla deal boosts Chinese presence in US auto tech


China's Tencent Holdings has bought a 5 percent stake in U.S. electric car maker Tesla for $1.78 billion, the latest investment by a Chinese internet company in the potentially lucrative market for self-driving vehicles and related services.

Tencent's investment, revealed in a U.S. regulatory filing, provides Tesla with a deep-pocketed ally as it prepares to launch its mass-market Model 3. Tesla's shares rose 2.7 percent to $277.45 on Tuesday, closing in on Ford Motor as the second-most-valuable U.S. auto company behind General Motors.

Tencent also could help the U.S. company sell - or even build - cars in China, the world's largest auto market, analysts said...

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/28/messagin ... tesla.html

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:02 am
by Zythryn
Your distaste for Tesla really is remarkable.
Tesla has stated they count deliveries when the vehicle is delivered to the customer.

If you constantly are going to mistrust Tesla statements and documents when they show good news, but trust them when they show bad news, well, I can't stop you.

However, I would suggest you are being blinded by your personal distaste for Tesla.
The record of Seeking Alpha is pretty horrid when it comes to Tesla.

I remember years ago, one author there that was very dismissive of Tesla, made a prediction.
He was sure that TSLA stock ($30 at the time) and his pet stock (about $10 at the time) would reverse in a year.

Well, TSLA just crested $300 and his stock made a reverse split of 20-1 then 50-1 and I believe a third time and is currently worth less than a penny.

Make all the unsupported claims you want, I'll continue to sit back and make money of the fools shorting the stock.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Wed Apr 05, 2017 2:43 pm
by finman100
Why any one would read SA is beyond me. Total and utter Tesla-bashing. And to want Tesla to fail? there are a few idiots out there.

It's all too real for those in the way of Tesla and the coming disruption. Best to be on the right side of history for this one. And if ya can't be on the right side of history, hey, just keep bringing the pitches, 'cause Elon has a pretty good bat.

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Posted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 5:37 pm
by GRA
Via IEVS:
Possible Strike Threatens Tesla Model 3 Production
http://insideevs.com/possible-strike-th ... roduction/

. . . Recently, Tesla acquired Grohman Engineering and then formed Tesla Advanced Automation Germany out of the deal. The plan was to secure an advanced engineering group in order to streamline/speed up the development and production process for the Model 3.

It sounded like an excellent idea, but now there’s trouble brewing.

As Germany’s Welt Am Sonntag reports, a worker strike at Tesla acquired Grohman is a real possibility. The strike could begin as early as this week.

Reasons for the strike include:

    The 660 Tesla Grohmann employees are paid up to 30% below union rate

    Tesla cancelled all non-Tesla order at Grohman, which is fueling fears over job security

    Grohman’s founder has left the company within reason

Tesla has responded by offering to increase employee pay by some 150 euro per month, but this doesn’t provide wage parity with union rate. The union is asking for a wage increase of closer to 400 euro per month. Tesla is willing to increase compensation further through a TSLA stock program, but this too is being met with criticism from employees. . . .