User avatar
LTLFTcomposite
Posts: 4541
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 6:06 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Dec 2011
Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Central FL

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sun Nov 19, 2017 5:48 pm

Putting down a grand to get in line for a model 3 with a shadow of doubt your deposit is secure is one thing, prepaying a quarter of a million dollars for a car you aren't expecting to see for three years is a game for Cloud Minders. I guess there are easily a thousand people in silicon valley for whom that kind of expenditure is the equivalent of me ordering a beer.
LTL
White 2012 SV delivered 10 Dec 2011 returned 25 Nov 2014 replaced with stopgap ICE Sentra
[35 months] [35K miles] [9 Bars]
2013 Volt replaced after 36 months/30k miles with ICE Rogue
2016 SV-adjacent May 2016 lost 4th bar March 2018

edatoakrun
Posts: 5222
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 9:33 am
Delivery Date: 15 May 2011
Leaf Number: 2184
Location: Shasta County, North California

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Nov 20, 2017 2:01 pm

Some have commented that TSLA's too little, too late model 3 production is no big deal, revealing their lack of understanding of the dimensions of TSLA's revenue deficit, and the number of model 3 sales required to bring TSLA to profitability.

TSLA's biggest problem is not that it will remain unprofitable if the model 3 is not successful.

TSLA's biggest problem is that it will probably remain unprofitable, even if the 3 is incredibly successful, and it sells hundreds of thousands of model 3's next year at the ~$45,000 average sales price it has claimed it (still) will.

The commentator below illustrates the depth of the hole TSLA has dug, by plugging many different and highly optimistic numbers into the model, and showing just how elusive profitability will be.

Even With Model 3 Success, Tesla Is Structurally Bankrupt

...Let's get right to the point. Even with a successful Model 3 ramp, Tesla remains structurally bankrupt.

Before I go through the numbers, let me explain what CoverDrive means by “structurally bankrupt.” Let’s begin with what it does not mean.

It does not mean Tesla will file for bankruptcy in 2018. On numerous occasions over the past five years, capital infusions have revived Tesla from blue-faced incipient bankruptcy to ruddy solvency, and there is no reason to believe that won’t happen again.

The mostly likely capital infusion will come by means of an equity issuance in the public equity market. Also possible is a private infusion, most likely from a wealthy overseas source (think Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY)), but possibly some U.S. multi-billionaire.

Either way, Tesla shareholders will suffer more dilution...

“Structurally bankrupt” means that even after achieving volume Model 3 production, Tesla will continue to hang on as it has hung on since it first was formed: incapable of generating any free cash flow, and therefore utterly dependent on continued capital infusions for its survival.

So, what’s the big deal if Tesla just continues along as it has done in the past?

The big deal is that, up until now, the story has been that the Model 3 is not only the culmination of Tesla’s mission (an EV for the masses), but also the product that will transform Tesla into a profitable enterprise.

Indeed, with a $50 billion market capitalization, the belief is that the Model 3 will transform Tesla into a hugely profitable enterprise...

Taken as a whole, CoverDrive’s model forecasts 2018 GAAP losses of $2 billion, even assuming a successful Model 3 rollout...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/412626 ... y-bankrupt
no condition is permanent

hyperionmark
Posts: 195
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2017 11:46 am
Delivery Date: 31 Jan 2017
Location: Nebraska

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Nov 20, 2017 4:27 pm

You do realize they let just about anyone write for that site, correct? You really have to be careful where you get your news sources from these days.

palmermd
Posts: 2496
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 3:19 pm
Delivery Date: 31 Mar 2011
Leaf Number: 1100011011
Location: Hermosa Beach, CA

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Nov 20, 2017 4:32 pm

hyperionmark wrote:You do realize they let just about anyone write for that site, correct? You really have to be careful where you get your news sources from these days.


Correct. I did not see anything written that supported any of the statements made by the author. He simply states they will not make money selling cars (period). I'd like to hear how he arrived at this conclusion, assuming that he is working with some facts, and not just his feelings about Tesla.

edit: ok I clicked on the link to see if there were real numbers in the article. There were. The author assumes that Tesla is only going to have an average run rate in 2018 of 1250 cars/week. They are clearly targeting higher run rates, and most of the "data" I saw posted seemed to be just pulled out of thin air. Definitely not something I'm going to worry about. Thanks (ed) for posting information on the naysayers, but I'd appreciate some sorting some of these, so we don't have to read every crazy writer, just the credible ones.
Michael

Leaf since 31 March 2011
Driving electric since 1996


First Bar Loss
Second Bar Loss
Third Bar Loss
Fourth Bar Loss

edatoakrun
Posts: 5222
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 9:33 am
Delivery Date: 15 May 2011
Leaf Number: 2184
Location: Shasta County, North California

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Nov 20, 2017 6:21 pm

palmermd wrote:...ok I clicked on the link to see if there were real numbers in the article. There were. The author assumes that Tesla is only going to have an average run rate in 2018 of 1250 cars/week...

You are mistaken.

Evidently you did not read the entire article, where the Q4 2018 losses are projected with higher, ~5 k and ~7.7 k weekly model 3 sales:

Now, let’s take a look at things at the end of 2018, assuming Tesla is producing 5,000 Model 3 cars per week, with mature gross margins, and having once again bumped up production of the Model S and Model X..

A better picture, to be sure, but better only in the sense of smaller losses...

What If CoverDrive Has Not Been Optimistic Enough?

What, indeed? Let’s add a dollop or two of optimism to CoverDrive’s forecasts.

How about we have Tesla sell 100,000 Model 3s in Q4 instead of 65,000? Here you go...

Well, that didn’t help much, and besides, the idea of 100,000 Model 3s in Q4 is really outlandish...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/412626 ... y-bankrupt

Is anybody at TSLA, or any analyst pimping its stock, claiming any quarterly profits in 2018 (other than from a replay of a stunt, such as recognizing many quarters of CARB ZEV credit sales in one quarter) much less a profit for the full year 2018?

I thought that delusion ended at the last conference call, along with the farcical claim of "10,000 Model 3 sales per week" ...
no condition is permanent

lorenfb
Posts: 1810
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Nov 20, 2017 9:34 pm

edatoakrun wrote:TSLA's biggest problem is that it will probably remain unprofitable, even if the 3 is incredibly successful, and it sells hundreds of thousands of model 3's next year at the ~$45,000 average sales price it has claimed it (still) will.

“Structurally bankrupt” means that even after achieving volume Model 3 production, Tesla will continue to hang on as it has hung on since it first was formed: incapable of generating any free cash flow, and therefore utterly dependent on continued capital infusions for its survival.

So, what’s the big deal if Tesla just continues along as it has done in the past?

The big deal is that, up until now, the story has been that the Model 3 is not only the culmination of Tesla’s mission (an EV for the masses), but also the product that will transform Tesla into a profitable enterprise.

Indeed, with a $50 billion market capitalization, the belief is that the Model 3 will transform Tesla into a hugely profitable enterprise...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4126264-even-model-3-success-tesla-structurally-bankrupt


That explains it succinctly! Since Tesla can't be profitable selling a low volume vehicle (MS) at a high price, they won't be
profitable selling basically the same vehicle (M3) at a higher volume with the same overall cost structure as the MS at a
marginally lower price than the MS.
Leaf SL MY 9/13: 66K miles, 50 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 charges to 100% > 1000, max battery temp < 95F (35C), min discharge point > 20 Ahrs

hyperionmark
Posts: 195
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2017 11:46 am
Delivery Date: 31 Jan 2017
Location: Nebraska

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Nov 21, 2017 5:13 am

Wow, you guys have it all figured out! You are so much more intelligent than anyone else. Congrats on being awesome! Can I borrow some of the money you will make when Tesla goes to zero?

Haha, this is a complete comedy show and I truly hope that you guys realize there are only about 2, maybe 3, people in here that take anything you guys say seriously.

finman100
Posts: 328
Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2012 10:42 am
Delivery Date: 06 Jun 2014
Location: Albany, OR

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue Nov 21, 2017 12:08 pm

It's really funny and entertaining. So...thanks! I love the comedy of doom and gloom. Keep it up. I wonder if Tesla knows they suck...
Albany, Oregon
2014 Silver SV with charge/LED package. June 2014, I'm in the EV game!
46,000 miles
17.5 kWh on 100% charge (51-ish Ah), down 1 bar
4.2 miles/kWh average
Best trip: all of 'em. They're all no-gas!

edatoakrun
Posts: 5222
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 9:33 am
Delivery Date: 15 May 2011
Leaf Number: 2184
Location: Shasta County, North California

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed Nov 22, 2017 12:04 pm

Financial journalist seem to be struggling to describe just how fast the cash is being sent to hell at TSLA:

Tesla’s Burning Through Nearly Half a Million Dollars Every Hour

Elon Musk said last week that Tesla Inc. is designing a new sports car that could go from zero to 60 mph in 1.9 seconds. Not bad, but here’s a speed number that investors might want to focus on instead:

Over the past 12 months, the electric-car maker has been burning money at a clip of about $8,000 a minute (or $480,000 an hour), Bloomberg data show. At this pace, the company is on track to exhaust its current cash pile on Monday, Aug. 6. (At 2:17 a.m. New York time, if you really want to be precise.)

To be fair, few Tesla watchers expect the cash burn to continue at quite such a breakneck pace, and the company itself says it’s ramping up output of its all-important Model 3, which will bring money in the door. Investors don’t seem concerned...

“Whether they can last another 10 months or a year, he needs money, and quickly,” said Kevin Tynan, senior analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, who estimates Tesla will be required to raise at least $2 billion in fresh capital by mid-2018...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... del-3-woes

Fortune's headline finds the correct simile?

Tesla Is Burning Through a Bitcoin Every Minute

http://fortune.com/2017/11/22/tesla-bit ... n-model-3/
no condition is permanent

hyperionmark
Posts: 195
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2017 11:46 am
Delivery Date: 31 Jan 2017
Location: Nebraska

Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sun Nov 26, 2017 5:53 am

edatoakrun wrote:Financial journalist seem to be struggling to describe just how fast the cash is being sent to hell at TSLA:

Tesla’s Burning Through Nearly Half a Million Dollars Every Hour

Elon Musk said last week that Tesla Inc. is designing a new sports car that could go from zero to 60 mph in 1.9 seconds. Not bad, but here’s a speed number that investors might want to focus on instead:

Over the past 12 months, the electric-car maker has been burning money at a clip of about $8,000 a minute (or $480,000 an hour), Bloomberg data show. At this pace, the company is on track to exhaust its current cash pile on Monday, Aug. 6. (At 2:17 a.m. New York time, if you really want to be precise.)

To be fair, few Tesla watchers expect the cash burn to continue at quite such a breakneck pace, and the company itself says it’s ramping up output of its all-important Model 3, which will bring money in the door. Investors don’t seem concerned...

“Whether they can last another 10 months or a year, he needs money, and quickly,” said Kevin Tynan, senior analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, who estimates Tesla will be required to raise at least $2 billion in fresh capital by mid-2018...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... del-3-woes

Fortune's headline finds the correct simile?

Tesla Is Burning Through a Bitcoin Every Minute

http://fortune.com/2017/11/22/tesla-bit ... n-model-3/

Because they know weak minded people like to read those articles. Clickbait 101. Pretty easy money.

Return to “Other Electric Cars & Plug-In Hybrids”