lorenfb
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat Mar 31, 2018 8:13 am

An interesting perspective on Tesla’s approach to the AP function (and with no LiDAR - Light Detection And Ranging):

Elon Musk, whose track record of failed forecasts makes fortunetellers look good by comparison, recently made one of his silliest predictions yet: that advances in AI will enable Tesla's (TSLA) autonomous cars to handle "all modes of driving" by the end of 2019. By all modes, he means drivers will be able to literally sleep at the wheel as their cars take them to their destination.
As a machine learning practitioner, whenever I see Musk make such wild prognostications about AI, two things come to mind. Either 1) this guy doesn't understand this technology very well or 2) he does and is purposely overhyping it to attract investors. Whatever the case may be, this article will attempt to clear up some common misconceptions about what AI can and can't do. I'll try to keep this as non-technical as possible.
Will Tesla's cars be able to handle all modes of self-driving by the end of next year? Elon Musk certainly seems to think so.
Unfortunately, this is simply not possible, at least not within Musk's overly optimistic timeline.
AI is still in its infancy - it can't compete with the human brain, which is many orders of magnitude more efficient, flexible, and adaptable.
This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Small-Cap Research.
Artificial neural networks are just spreadsheets on steroids.
- Computer Scientist John Launchbury
What current AI can do is perform very simple tasks such as Facebook's (FB) facial recognition, Google's (GOOGL) language translations, and Netflix's (NFLX) movie recommendations. While these technologies do exhibit some human-like intelligence, there's no consciousness behind them. They're literally nothing more than sophisticated pattern recognition algorithms.

These algorithms, more commonly called artificial neural networks, are very loosely based on our primitive understanding of how neural connections in our brains work. A neural network with multiple "hidden layers" is called "deep," which is where the now popular term "deep learning" comes from. To gain some intuition about how deep learning works, take a look at this picture:

image input -> neural network -> desired outcome (delta in spatial position)

Neural networks are easy to fool, which is a huge safety issue with self-driving cars. Changing a couple pixels on an image of a stop sign, for example, can trick a state-of-the-art convolutional neural network into labeling it as a speed limit sign. A human driver would never make such a goofy mistake.

The ultimate point is this - until we're able to close the wide gap between AI and human intelligence by developing more efficient, flexible, and adaptable learning algorithms, Musk's dream of fully autonomous driving will remain just that, a dream. Optimistically speaking, developing such algorithms will take not years but many decades. According to one of the world's foremost experts in this field, Yann LeCun, right now we're still "a long way from machines that are even as intelligent as rats."



https://seekingalpha.com/article/415917 ... of=44&dr=1
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sun Apr 01, 2018 10:47 am

Nubo wrote:
GlennD wrote:
Nubo wrote:
If it were owned by Apple, I'd have bought 2 by now. ;)


I currently have an iPhone 6. It works well for my needs. I re,member Steve Jobs pushing the sealed Mac. I will never again own an Apple computer. I had an Apple II many years ago.

The cult of Apple or the cult of Elon are not for me.

More of a meme than reality. I have opened every Mac I’ve owned over the years as well as iPods and iphones.[/quotIe]

I remember that Apple spawned an industry of mac crackers. Currently the offshore people sell the special tools to open iPhone's.
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sun Apr 01, 2018 4:10 pm

Elon Musk just announced they are filing for bankruptcy. Tomorrow should be verrrry interesting.
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iPlug
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sun Apr 01, 2018 4:12 pm

Happy April 1:

Elon Musk
(@elonmusk)
Tesla Goes Bankrupt Palo Alto, California, April 1, 2018 -- Despite intense efforts to raise money, including a last-ditch mass sale of Easter Eggs, we are sad to report that Tesla has gone completely and totally bankrupt. So bankrupt, you can't believe it.
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sun Apr 01, 2018 4:32 pm

LTL
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edatoakrun
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sun Apr 01, 2018 5:07 pm

LTLFTcomposite wrote:Elon Musk just announced they are filing for bankruptcy...

Actually, TSLA got an early start on the April fools jokes a couple of days ago, when it said:

An Update on Last Week’s Accident

The Tesla Team March 30, 2018


...In the US, there is one automotive fatality every 86 million miles across all vehicles from all manufacturers. For Tesla, there is one fatality, including known pedestrian fatalities, every 320 million miles in vehicles equipped with Autopilot hardware. If you are driving a Tesla equipped with Autopilot hardware, you are 3.7 times less likely to be involved in a fatal accident...

https://www.tesla.com/blog/update-last- ... s-accident

Though friends and family of those who have died, and of those who will die in autopilot crashes, may not have found or will find it very funny...
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sun Apr 01, 2018 5:34 pm

edatoakrun wrote:Though friends and family of those who have died, and of those who will die in autopilot crashes, may not have found or will find it very funny...

You must be a riot at parties.
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edatoakrun
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Apr 02, 2018 9:45 am

Tesla Making 2,000 Model 3s Per Week, Musk Says, Missing Target For First Quarter

...In the email, sent at the perfectly normal email time of 3:01 a.m. PDT on a Monday, Musk said it has been “extremely difficult” to pass the 2,000 vehicle per week rate for the Model 3, “but we are finally here.”

“If things go as planned today, we will comfortably exceed that number over a seven day period!” Musk wrote in the email, obtained by Jalopnik.

The message suggests the company rapidly exceeded production of the Model 3 over the past week. Bloomberg, which has been tracking production totals for the all-electric sedan, said over the weekend that Tesla had been hitting around 1,200 per week...

https://jalopnik.com/tesla-making-2-000 ... 1824253566
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Mon Apr 02, 2018 4:44 pm

Apple guy: Uh, yeah, Lord Vader, death star construction is proceeding according to... <gasp> <choke> <collapse to floor>

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/02/elon-mu ... ction.html
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Thu Apr 05, 2018 10:07 am

Amazing recovery in the stock price, back to 300.
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