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LTLFTcomposite
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed May 09, 2018 6:46 am

^ If they do run into solvency issues at some point nobody can say there weren't warning signs. I still think if the going gets tough silicon valley will circle the wagons and they aren't going anywhere, but it would still be ugly for shareholders.
LTL
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GRA
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed May 09, 2018 6:51 pm

I don't think this will have a significant affect on the company, but as it possibly pertains to the risks of the specific battery chemistry this seems a better topic than one dedicated to a particular Tesla model. Via ABG:
NTSB investigating deaths of Florida teens in fiery Tesla crash
Speed was a factor in the crash, police said
https://www.autoblog.com/2018/05/09/ntsb-tesla-crash-teens-killed-fort-lauderdale/
. . . The National Transportation Safety Board said it was sending a team of four investigators to look into the crash. The NTSB said it did not anticipate that Autopilot was a factor. The board said it was interested in how first responders dealt with the post-crash fire involving the electric vehicle's battery.

"NTSB has a long history of investigating emerging transportation technologies, such as lithium ion battery fires in commercial aviation, as well as a fire involving the lithium ion battery in a Chevrolet Volt in collaboration with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration," said NTSB Chairman Robert S. Sumwalt. "In addition, the NTSB is currently investigating a fire involving the transportation of hydrogen gas for fuel cell vehicles. The goal of these investigations is to understand the impact of these emerging transportation technologies when they are part of a transportation accident. . . ."
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

edatoakrun
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Wed May 09, 2018 8:06 pm

GRA wrote:I don't think this will have a significant affect on the company, but as it possibly pertains to the risks of the specific battery chemistry this seems a better topic than one dedicated to a particular Tesla model. Via ABG:
NTSB investigating deaths of Florida teens in fiery Tesla crash
Speed was a factor in the crash, police said
https://www.autoblog.com/2018/05/09/ntsb-tesla-crash-teens-killed-fort-lauderdale/
. . . The National Transportation Safety Board said it was sending a team of four investigators to look into the crash. The NTSB said it did not anticipate that Autopilot was a factor. The board said it was interested in how first responders dealt with the post-crash fire involving the electric vehicle's battery.

"NTSB has a long history of investigating emerging transportation technologies, such as lithium ion battery fires in commercial aviation, as well as a fire involving the lithium ion battery in a Chevrolet Volt in collaboration with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration," said NTSB Chairman Robert S. Sumwalt. "In addition, the NTSB is currently investigating a fire involving the transportation of hydrogen gas for fuel cell vehicles. The goal of these investigations is to understand the impact of these emerging transportation technologies when they are part of a transportation accident. . . ."

Now that teslas have depreciated to the point where they're cheap enough for large numbers of teenagers to get their hands on them, you should expect more and more crash-followed by-fires reports like this.

Video at the link:


Tesla crash: Car explosion leaves two dead in Florida


A FIERY car crash near Fort Lauderdale beach in Florida has left two 18-year-olds dead.


...Another resident, who asked to remain anonymous, said the car was speeding southbound on the Seabreeze Boulevard when it crashed and spun out of control.

They said: “Two people trapped in the front seats.

“Nobody could help because the car was on fire. The fire was so intense that nobody could reach them. There were people trying to get there but it wasn’t happening.”...

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/95 ... two-killed

Let's all hope TSLA made safety improvements (less explosive?) in the new battery format it uses in the model 3, or you'll be able to watch lots of TSLA crash-followed by-fire videos in a few years, if TSLA manages to sell close to as many 3's as it has claimed it will.
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GRA
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri May 11, 2018 4:22 pm

Via ABG:
A list of Tesla car fires since 2013
Fatal Florida crash is the latest
https://www.autoblog.com/2018/05/11/a-list-of-tesla-car-fires-since-2013/

While Tesla's NCA batteries are more likely to overheat and catch fire than other Li-ion chemistries, I don't see this as a major problem for them (yet). It's a straight trade-off between energy densities and thermal runaway risk. Should the incidence of such fires increase significantly, that could change.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

edatoakrun
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Fri May 11, 2018 5:09 pm

GRA wrote:Via ABG:
...While Tesla's NCA batteries are more likely to overheat and catch fire than other Li-ion chemistries, I don't see this as a major problem for them (yet). It's a straight trade-off between energy densities and thermal runaway risk...

Incinerated plaintiff's attorneys of course will attempt to convince juries that It's a straight trade-off between Tesla's profits and vehicle safety.

Yet another hazard posed by TSLA packs is that unlike gasoline tanks they are capable of not only self-ignition, but once damaged remain susceptible to re-ignition, until drained of energy:

Tesla battery reignites days after deadly crash...

MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif. (KTVU) -
2 Investigates has uncovered new information about the deadly Tesla crash in Mountain View earlier this year along with a serious warning for all firefighters responding to electric vehicle crashes.

KTVU has obtained a 13-page safety alert written by Mountain View Fire Chief Juan Diaz, in which he highlights the dangers firefighters faced while responding to that wreck, including a high-voltage battery they had no way to stop.

Firefighters say they put the fire out in two minutes but soon discovered the battery fire in the electric vehicle would smolder for hours and reignite multiple times, even days later.

"The battery began to overheat even though we had already cooled the battery and it continued to reignite," said Diaz. "We don't have the tools to deal with a battery that is completely, basically destroyed.”

The problem, he says, was a lithium-ion battery that continued to flow with electricity after it was damaged in the high-speed crash, which the NTSB is still investigating...

The Mountain View Fire Department tells 2 Investigates the Tesla caught fire three to four times after the crash.

Diaz says it was only after the NTSB and Tesla de-energized the battery two weeks later that it was finally safe.

In the memo, shared with every fire department in the Bay Area, the fire chief also warns of another dangerous scenario firefighters could face: if a house catches fire with an electric vehicle parked at home, the damaged car battery could reignite later.

"If the battery is damaged, then we're going to have to basically monitor that vehicle for a prolonged (time) -- could be days -- to make sure it doesn't reignite," said Diaz...

http://www.ktvu.com/news/tesla-battery- ... vestigates
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GRA
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Sat May 12, 2018 10:50 am

edatoakrun wrote:
GRA wrote:Via ABG:
...While Tesla's NCA batteries are more likely to overheat and catch fire than other Li-ion chemistries, I don't see this as a major problem for them (yet). It's a straight trade-off between energy densities and thermal runaway risk...

Incinerated plaintiff's attorneys of course will attempt to convince juries that It's a straight trade-off between Tesla's profits and vehicle safety.

No doubt, but unless they can show that they are more dangerous than gasoline I think they'll have a tough time winning the case. Unlike, say, A/P-caused accidents.

edatoakrun wrote:[Yet another hazard posed by TSLA packs is that unlike gasoline tanks they are capable of not only self-ignition, but once damaged remain susceptible to re-ignition, until drained of energy: <snip>

And if it thinks they're needed, the NTSB will make recommendations for modifications to the ERG and first responder training that they believe are necessary, just as they do with any other hazmat:
2016 ERG : The Emergency Response Guidebook (ERG 2016) was developed jointly by the US Department of Transportation, Transport Canada, and the Secretariat of Communications and Transportation of Mexico (SCT) for use by firefighters, police, and other emergency services personnel who may be the first to arrive at the scene of a transportation incident involving a hazardous material. It is primarily a guide to aid first responders in (1) quickly identifying the specific or generic classification of the material(s) involved in the incident, and (2) protecting themselves and the general public during this initial response phase of the incident. The ERG is updated every three to four years to accommodate new products and technology.
https://www.airseacontainers.com/emergency-response-guidebook-2016-standard.html?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIgtyBztuA2wIVBQWRCh1k8ghKEAQYBCABEgJJL_D_BwE#page=page-1
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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LTLFTcomposite
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue May 15, 2018 6:02 am

Morgan Stanley is distancing themselves a bit.
LTL
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edatoakrun
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue May 15, 2018 7:21 am

LTLFTcomposite wrote:Morgan Stanley is distancing themselves a bit.

I've never understood why anyone would take investment bankers conflicted opinions on equity values seriously.

IMO, a far better as a predictor of future stock price, is the willingness of insiders (senior executives) to walk away from their stock options...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ha8TqiBQhek

Is the Tesla executive exodus hitting Ludicrous mode?

As it struggles to ramp up production of its make-or-break mass-market electric car, Tesla has launched a companywide reorganization that will flatten its management structure, CEO Elon Musk told employees Monday.

A stream of top managers has left the Palo Alto automaker in recent months or stepped aside from their duties. This includes, most recently, a key safety executive, who departed for a rival company even as a federal investigation continues into the fatal crash of a Tesla using self-steering Autopilot software on Highway 101 this spring. (In another crash last week in Utah, a Tesla smashed into a stopped fire truck at about 60 mph; the driver said she was using Autopilot mode and had been looking at her phone, according to the Associated Press.)

In his brief email to employees Monday, Musk did not address the executive departures, which also include top managers of engineering, finance and Autopilot. Instead, he emphasized that Tesla would continue to add staff connected to production of the Model 3, the $35,000 sedan considered the linchpin of Tesla’s plans. Tesla employed 37,543 people worldwide at the start of the year, and the company has been hiring at its Fremont auto factory.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/ar ... 913760.php
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue May 15, 2018 7:53 am

^ It could just be that they are burning out and have other opportunities that are equally lucrative.
LTL
White 2012 SV delivered 10 Dec 2011 returned 25 Nov 2014 replaced with stopgap ICE Sentra
[35 months] [35K miles] [9 Bars]
2013 Volt replaced after 36 months/30k miles with ICE Rogue
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edatoakrun
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Re: TSLA corporate outlook

Tue May 15, 2018 9:22 am

GRA wrote:Via ABG:
A list of Tesla car fires since 2013
Fatal Florida crash is the latest
https://www.autoblog.com/2018/05/11/a-list-of-tesla-car-fires-since-2013/

While Tesla's NCA batteries are more likely to overheat and catch fire than other Li-ion chemistries, I don't see this as a major problem for them (yet)...unless they can show that they are more dangerous than gasoline I think they'll have a tough time winning the case. Unlike, say, A/P-caused accidents.

No details (yet) but this sounds like it could be another autopilot driven/crash/fire/ fatality for an unidentified Tesla model.

Photo at link is brutal...

Tesla crash may have triggered battery fire, say Swiss firefighters

A 48-year-German driver died on Thursday when his car hit the barrier in the central reservation of a motorway in the southern canton of Ticino, turned over and burst into flames.

The crash is one of several accidentsexternal link to affect Tesla vehicles in recent days.

“The violent impact of Lithium-ion batteries could probably have caused a phenomenon called ‘thermal runaway’, i.e. a rapid and unstoppable increase in temperature,” Ticino fire brigade said...

https://www.autoblog.com/2018/05/14/tes ... itzerland/
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