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RegGuheert
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Re: 2017 Prius Prime PHEV

Sat Jan 07, 2017 12:47 am

SageBrush wrote:Lastly, while I was not talking only about Volt reliability because I don't know details, the 2nd generation Volt has this going on
The Chevrolet Volt is “no longer recommended” as it is on a list of vehicles with “declining reliability.”
...
The kicker is “First-year reliability of the redesign has been well-below average,” says CR.
http://www.hybridcars.com/consumer-reports-names-tesla-volt-and-prius-among-winners-and-losers/
Thanks. That's good information that is specific to the discussion.

Still, to date, no Toyota Prius has ever topped the Chevy Volt in customer satisfaction. And the PiP is far behind. Will that changed with the 2017 Chevy Volt and the 2017 Prius Prime? No one knows.

Simply put, Toyota is the laggard in plug-in vehicles. They have some catch-up to do in this space. They continue to cling to their hybrid line which has been a real cash cow for them while Chevy had innovated aggressively. IMO, a 25-mile electric-only range will still leave Toyota customers lacking. Time will tell.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
2011 miles at purchase. 10K miles on Apr 14, 2013. 20K miles (55.7Ah) on Aug 7, 2014, 3K miles (52.0Ah) on Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah) on Feb 8, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

GRA
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Re: 2017 Prius Prime PHEV

Sat Jan 07, 2017 5:04 pm

RegGuheert wrote:I cannot see the appeal of the Prius Prime. What can you say about it?

- It goes almost half as far as the Volt 2 on batteries.
- It has 80% as many seats as the Volt 2.
- It's twice as ugly as the Volt 2.
- If you stare at its rear long enough, you see Optimus Prime. :D

It appears it has three things going for it:
- It costs 90% as much as the Volt 2.
- It goes 29% farther on a gallon of gas than the Volt 2.
- It has 87% more cargo volume than the Volt 2.

OK, perhaps that last one would win over some owners. Still, I think most will have difficulty choosing the Prius Prime over the Chevy Volt.

If these do become popular, expect to find Prius Primes clogging EVSEs everywhere. :evil:

84% of the Volt's price, or more importantly from the customer's viewpoint, base MSRP of $6k less, which is to say, $6k less than the average price paid for all new LDVs, which includes much more expensive pickups and SUVs - the price differential more than doubles the size of the potential market. Plus, there's little reason that anyone using the car for commuting and charging at home and/or work needs to charge beyond L1, saving the cost and hassle of upgrading circuits/buying an L2 EVSE and making far more sense for renters, and the Prime's virtually guaranteed to be more reliable than the Volt.

For anyone who's routine daily driving range can be handled by the Prime, the Volt battery pack's extra weight and cost are useless, and the Prime's more efficient in CS mode (and maybe in CD mode) as a result. I suspect back seat space is also better for the Prime, although it lacks the Volt's half seat which will be a factor for some. You've also got to put up with the Prime's looks and flabbier performance, but the latter's simply not an issue for the average Prius buyer, and the former matters a lot less to them than to the general car-buying population. It would certainly sell _better_ if it looked more normal, but I expect it will sell just fine - the regular Gen 4 Prius, although not selling as well as the Gen 3 did and generally considered by those who've seen them both to be fuglier than the Prime, is still very popular here in the Bay Area.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

SageBrush
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Re: 2017 Prius Prime PHEV

Sat Jan 07, 2017 5:18 pm

GRA wrote:
RegGuheert wrote:I cannot see the appeal of the Prius Prime. What can you say about it?

- It goes almost half as far as the Volt 2 on batteries.
- It has 80% as many seats as the Volt 2.
- It's twice as ugly as the Volt 2.
- If you stare at its rear long enough, you see Optimus Prime. :D

It appears it has three things going for it:
- It costs 90% as much as the Volt 2.
- It goes 29% farther on a gallon of gas than the Volt 2.
- It has 87% more cargo volume than the Volt 2.

OK, perhaps that last one would win over some owners. Still, I think most will have difficulty choosing the Prius Prime over the Chevy Volt.

If these do become popular, expect to find Prius Primes clogging EVSEs everywhere. :evil:

84% of the Volt's price, or more importantly from the customer's viewpoint, base MSRP of $6k less, which is to say, $6k less than the average price paid for all new LDVs, which includes much more expensive pickups and SUVs - the price differential more than doubles the size of the potential market. Plus, there's little reason that anyone using the car for commuting and charging at home and/or work needs to charge beyond L1, saving the cost and hassle of upgrading circuits/buying an L2 EVSE and making far more sense for renters, and the Prime's virtually guaranteed to be more reliable than the Volt.

For anyone who's routine daily driving range can be handled by the Prime, the Volt battery pack's extra weight and cost are useless, and the Prime's more efficient in CS mode (and maybe in CD mode) as a result. I suspect back seat space is also better for the Prime, although it lacks the Volt's half seat which will be a factor for some. You've also got to put up with the Prime's looks and flabbier performance, but the latter's simply not an issue for the average Prius buyer, and the former matters a lot less to them than to the general car-buying population. It would certainly sell _better_ if it looked more normal, but I expect it will sell just fine - the regular Gen 4 Prius, although not selling as well as the Gen 3 did and generally considered by those who've seen them both to be fuglier than the Prime, is still very popular here in the Bay Area.

Well said.

So called "EV enthusiasts" and car review magazines love to hate the Prius and Prime but people who value practicality, reliability, value and efficiency find a lot to like in the Toyota *EV offerings. It also helps that Toyota offers fantastic customer support, unlike e.g. *cough* *cough* my otherwise highly respected Honda when it comes to *EVs, let alone a slime company like GM.
2013 Model 'S' with QC & rear-view camera
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GRA
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Re: 2017 Prius Prime PHEV

Sat Jan 07, 2017 5:28 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
SageBrush wrote:Lastly, while I was not talking only about Volt reliability because I don't know details, the 2nd generation Volt has this going on
The Chevrolet Volt is “no longer recommended” as it is on a list of vehicles with “declining reliability.”
...
The kicker is “First-year reliability of the redesign has been well-below average,” says CR.
http://www.hybridcars.com/consumer-reports-names-tesla-volt-and-prius-among-winners-and-losers/
Thanks. That's good information that is specific to the discussion.

Still, to date, no Toyota Prius has ever topped the Chevy Volt in customer satisfaction. And the PiP is far behind. Will that changed with the 2017 Chevy Volt and the 2017 Prius Prime? No one knows.

Seeing as how the average Prius owner views a car as an appliance and treats it likewise, it's hardly surprising that its customer satisfaction ratings are relatively low (but IIRR its return customer % is very high). The Volt's just getting beyond the early adopter stage, and I suspect that's being reflected in the lower reliability ratings (already) and soon the customer satisfaction ratings, as the customer demographic changes to reflect more mainstream views. The Prius' customer base, OTOH, has never been mainstream, at least in the U.S.

RegGuheert wrote:Simply put, Toyota is the laggard in plug-in vehicles. They have some catch-up to do in this space. They continue to cling to their hybrid line which has been a real cash cow for them while Chevy had innovated aggressively. IMO, a 25-mile electric-only range will still leave Toyota customers lacking. Time will tell.

For reasons I've mentioned before, but primarily cost and secondarily hassle factor, I remain convinced that PHEVs with the lowest price while having a battery big enough to handle a large % of the population's daily needs are the only ones that have a chance of reaching large numbers (say annual rates of 100k initially, ultimately 250k+) of sales under current conditions. The Prime may be able to achieve the first number (it's probably still too expensive without subsidies) the Volt remains too expensive. Getting PHEV prices to drop to $25k and then $20k while still providing comparable performance/value to ICEs is the next step. The Prime also falls short on pax/cargo volume, and the first company that can provide a sub-$30k PHEV with 20+ miles of range which is a true 5 passenger car with un-compromised cargo space and normal looks will do very well - the Fusion/C-Max Energi have the 5 pax and normal looks and sell reasonably well, but not the cargo space. A next-gen Fusion/C-Max Energi that puts the battery in a skateboard could clean up.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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RegGuheert
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Re: 2017 Prius Prime PHEV

Sun Jan 08, 2017 1:33 am

GRA wrote:84% of the Volt's price, or more importantly from the customer's viewpoint, base MSRP of $6k less,...
Let's see the actual numbers:

2017 Chevy Volt base price: $33,200
2017 Chevy Volt federal tax credit: $7500
2017 Chevy Volt final price: $25,700

2017 Toyota Prius Prime base price: $27,100
2017 Toyota Prius Prime federal tax credit: $4500
2017 Toyota Prius Prime final price: $22,600

Difference: $3,100 2017 ToyotaPrius Prime is 88% of the price of the 2017 Chevy Volt.
GRA wrote:Plus, there's little reason that anyone using the car for commuting and charging at home and/or work needs to charge beyond L1, saving the cost and hassle of upgrading circuits/buying an L2 EVSE...
It seems you haven't thought this through carefully. Miles gained per hours at a given charging rate is ONLY a function vehicle efficiencies (both charging and running efficiencies). Chevy Volt travels 53 miles using an 18.4 kWh battery or 2.88 miles/kWh. Toyota Prius Prime travels 25 miles using an 8.8 kWh battery for 2.84 miles/kWh. In other words, the 2017 Chevy Volt is MORE efficient at driving on electricity than the 2017 Prius Prime. Assuming they have equally-efficient chargers at L1 speeds, then the Chevy Volt will travel FARTHER each day using L1 than the 2017 Prius Prime. Note that there are other very good reasons to install a L2 charger, plus it improves charging efficiency.
GRA wrote:...and making far more sense for renters,...
:?: Nonsense. A renter without easy access to an L2 (or L1) EVSE would be better served by a Volt than Prius Prime. In the Volt, those with very short commutes could charge only on weekends and then commute all week on electricity. With a longer commute, they could charge on the weekend and then again once during the week. With the Prius Prime, a renter will ALWAYS be looking for a place to charge (or, more likely, will simply just burn gasoline always due to the hassle of having to charge away from home so often).
GRA wrote:...and the Prime's virtually guaranteed to be more reliable than the Volt.
No, it's not. We have no data on the reliability of the 2017 Toyota Prius Prime.
GRA wrote:For anyone who's routine daily driving range can be handled by the Prime, the Volt battery pack's extra weight and cost are useless, and the Prime's more efficient in CS mode (and maybe in CD mode) as a result.
This was the same argument used for the Toyota Plug in Prius. People thought: "I only have a 5-mile commute, so this will be perfect." Those same people never thought to look at how many miles they drive each year. Those suckers ended up paying over $10,000 more for a vehicle which had marginally better efficiency than a normal Prius. The Prime is a step in the right direction, but I suspect there aren't enough drivers with sub-12-mile-one-way commutes who never go anywhere else during their daily routine to make this attractive. This is why I predict these cars will clog EVSEs.
GRA wrote:It would certainly sell _better_ if it looked more normal, but I expect it will sell just fine...
I suspect you are correct here. Hey, people even purchased the PiP, and this is a big improvement over that car.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
2011 miles at purchase. 10K miles on Apr 14, 2013. 20K miles (55.7Ah) on Aug 7, 2014, 3K miles (52.0Ah) on Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah) on Feb 8, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

LeftieBiker
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Re: 2017 Prius Prime PHEV

Sun Jan 08, 2017 3:40 am

The above post is surprisingly riddled with errors and questionable assumptions. I'll take just this one: that the PIP is only 'marginally more efficient' than the regular Prius. My housemate has a commute that is much farther than the car's AER, but it has a lifetime (something like 40 months) average MPG of about 73, with Summer averages in the eighties. Her 2010 Prius II averaged about 50 MPG over the years. Almost 33% less gas used is not "marginally" anything.

And here's a bonus rebuttal: we certainly can expect that the Prime will be very reliable, as it's the fifth generation of a car in which the mechanical changes are not radical, and the previous four generations were all reliable. It isn't guaranteed, but it's likely.
2013 "Brilliant Silver" SV with Premium Package and no QC, and 2009 Vectrix VX-1 with 18 Leaf cells.

The most offensive, tasteless phrase in use here is "Pulled the trigger." I no longer respond to posts that use it.

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RegGuheert
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Re: 2017 Prius Prime PHEV

Sun Jan 08, 2017 5:10 am

LeftieBiker wrote:The above post is surprisingly riddled with errors and questionable assumptions. I'll take just this one: that the PIP is only 'marginally more efficient' than the regular Prius. My housemate has a commute that is much farther than the car's AER, but it has a lifetime (something like 40 months) average MPG of about 73, with Summer averages in the eighties. Her 2010 Prius II averaged about 50 MPG over the years. Almost 33% less gas used is not "marginally" anything.
It sounds as if you are confusing gas mileage with something else. Early Chevy Volt users often claimed they got 250 MPG. Here are some real-world numbers for everyone to enjoy:

Toyota Prius
2015: 44.7
2014: 47.1
2013: 46.7

Toyota Prius Plugin
2015: 52.0
2014: 45.2
2013: 51.4

Simply put, gasoline mileage for the PiP is marginally better than that for the regular Prius.

If you want instead to count the miles driven on electricity in gasoline mileage, then the Chevy Volt wins hands down in that equation.
LeftieBiker wrote:And here's a bonus rebuttal: we certainly can expect that the Prime will be very reliable, as it's the fifth generation of a car in which the mechanical changes are not radical, and the previous four generations were all reliable. It isn't guaranteed, but it's likely.
That doesn't contradict anything I wrote. You said it isn't guaranteed and that's exactly what I wrote. I think we are in full agreement on this point.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
2011 miles at purchase. 10K miles on Apr 14, 2013. 20K miles (55.7Ah) on Aug 7, 2014, 3K miles (52.0Ah) on Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah) on Feb 8, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

SageBrush
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Re: 2017 Prius Prime PHEV

Sun Jan 08, 2017 6:11 am

RegGuheert wrote:
GRA wrote:84% of the Volt's price, or more importantly from the customer's viewpoint, base MSRP of $6k less,...
Let's see the actual numbers:

2017 Chevy Volt base price: $33,200
2017 Chevy Volt federal tax credit: $7500
2017 Chevy Volt final price: $25,700

2017 Toyota Prius Prime base price: $27,100
2017 Toyota Prius Prime federal tax credit: $4500
2017 Toyota Prius Prime final price: $22,600

Difference: $3,100 2017 ToyotaPrius Prime is 88% of the price of the 2017 Chevy Volt.
GRA wrote:Plus, there's little reason that anyone using the car for commuting and charging at home and/or work needs to charge beyond L1, saving the cost and hassle of upgrading circuits/buying an L2 EVSE...
It seems you haven't thought this through carefully. Miles gained per hours at a given charging rate is ONLY a function vehicle efficiencies (both charging and running efficiencies). Chevy Volt travels 53 miles using an 18.4 kWh battery or 2.88 miles/kWh. Toyota Prius Prime travels 25 miles using an 8.8 kWh battery for 2.84 miles/kWh. In other words, the 2017 Chevy Volt is MORE efficient at driving on electricity than the 2017 Prius Prime. Assuming they have equally-efficient chargers at L1 speeds, then the Chevy Volt will travel FARTHER each day using L1 than the 2017 Prius Prime. Note that there are other very good reasons to install a L2 charger, plus it improves charging efficiency.
GRA wrote:...and making far more sense for renters,...
:?: Nonsense. A renter without easy access to an L2 (or L1) EVSE would be better served by a Volt than Prius Prime. In the Volt, those with very short commutes could charge only on weekends and then commute all week on electricity. With a longer commute, they could charge on the weekend and then again once during the week. With the Prius Prime, a renter will ALWAYS be looking for a place to charge (or, more likely, will simply just burn gasoline always due to the hassle of having to charge away from home so often).
GRA wrote:...and the Prime's virtually guaranteed to be more reliable than the Volt.
No, it's not. We have no data on the reliability of the 2017 Toyota Prius Prime.


1. Reliability is estimated based on model and manufacturer history. Have you never seen Consumer Reports, e.g ?

2. Look up fueleconomy.gov for vehicle efficiencies. Your calc is wrong because it presumes the same fraction of the nominal capacity is usable. More importantly, you miss the point that a Volt buyer probably values the 50 mile range per charge and would find the Prime 25 miles per charge inadequate. The Prime buyer has decided that the 25 miles EV range is adequate and values the higher ICE efficiency not available in the Volt. You cannot ignore the differences in the cars and the differences in the priorities of the consumers. One likely result is that a Volt owner will be looking at over twice the L1 time as a Prime owner to meet their use case. That is why GRA is right.

3. Renting: This again depends on specific use cases, but in general L1 limited charging is probably going to be easier to get along with for people with less demanding daily EV driving, thereby selecting for people who do not care about the longer Volt EV range.

4. IF the entire tax credit can be taken. And for people who are price conscious, reliability and depreciation come into consideration.

The thing is, you have the perspective of an outsider who views these cars as similar but in reality there is little x-shopping. A large part of this is simply brand preference but the more subtle issue is that the two groups have fairly different shopping priorities and use cases. Your arguments reminds me of the days when the Gen 1 Volt came out and people would argue that the Volt was perfect because the EV range exactly matched the daily driving of the Average American even though even cursory inspection of a histogram of daily drivers shows that very, very few drivers are average and the overwhelming majority of us drive a mixture ranges related to work, pleasure and long trips, and our charging opportunities are equally as varied.
2013 Model 'S' with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California with 63.9 Ahr after 22k miles
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado

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RegGuheert
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Re: 2017 Prius Prime PHEV

Sun Jan 08, 2017 6:46 am

SageBrush wrote:1. Reliability is estimated based on model and manufacturer history. Have you never seen Consumer Reports, e.g ?
You mean like the Volt 2 had very good estimated reliability based on the Volt 1? Got it.
SageBrush wrote:2. Look up fueleconomy.gov for vehicle efficiencies.
O.K.
2015 Prius: 48 MPG
2016 Prius Plugin: 50 MPG

How many more sources do you need to prove my point? A 2015 Chevy Volt would use MUCH less gasoline than a PiP for most daily driving distances and it would have cost about the same if not less.
SageBrush wrote:Your calc is wrong because it presumes the same fraction of the nominal capacity is usable.
Got numbers? In reality, the Chevy Volt uses the smallest percent of the capacity of its battery of just about any car out there. As such, it is likely that the Volt is more relatively efficient than I had calculated.
SageBrush wrote:More importantly, you miss the point that a Volt buyer probably values the 50 mile range per charge and would find the Prime 25 miles per charge inadequate. The Prime buyer has decided that the 25 miles EV range is adequate and values the higher ICE efficiency not available in the Volt. You cannot ignore the differences in the cars and the differences in the priorities of the consumers. One likely result is that a Volt owner will be looking at over twice the L1 time as a Prime owner to meet their use case. That is why GRA is right.
No, you can easily support a 50-mile or longer commute in 10 hours of L1 since you get about 5 miles per hour of charging.
SageBrush wrote:3. Renting: This again depends on specific use cases, but in general L1 limited charging is probably going to be easier to get along with for people with less demanding daily EV driving, thereby selecting for people who do not care about the longer Volt EV range.
As I pointed out, ALL renting scenarios point to the Chevy Volt being significantly more convenient since it reduces the incidence of public charging regardless of distance traveled. More likely renters are going to purchase a car which runs on gasoline unless they can charge at work.
SageBrush wrote:4. IF the entire tax credit can be taken. And for people who are price conscious, reliability and depreciation come into consideration.
The entire tax credit can ALWAYS be taken by leasing.
SageBrush wrote:The thing is, you have the perspective of an outsider who views these cars as similar but in reality there is little x-shopping. A large part of this is simply brand preference but the more subtle issue is that the two groups have fairly different shopping priorities and use cases.
Um. No. I am pointing out that a 25-mile AER is far inferior to a 53-mile AER in all but the extreme corner cases. GRA likes to imagine such corner cases in order to promote EVERY OTHER TYPE OF VEHICLE above BEVs. It's what he comes here to do every day, even though he is an absolute outsider.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
2011 miles at purchase. 10K miles on Apr 14, 2013. 20K miles (55.7Ah) on Aug 7, 2014, 3K miles (52.0Ah) on Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah) on Feb 8, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

SageBrush
Posts: 306
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Location: Colorado

Re: 2017 Prius Prime PHEV

Sun Jan 08, 2017 7:06 am

Ignore leasing as a tax credit convenience for this discussion because the two cars do not have the same APRs and residuals.

FuelEconomy.gov is not doing a good job these days ...
Here are the Monroney stickers for each car
https://priuschat.com/threads/monroney- ... st-2474584

You need to get out more. Read the Volt and Prime forums a little and you will quickly see that the Volt buyers prize the higher AER and 0-60 times while the Prime buyers discount or ignore those aspects of the car. There are a slew of other priorities that differ between these two groups but you should start with the obvious ones. Models can only be compared in the context of what buyers care about. I usually do not bring my example to discussions because I am an outlier in too many ways but in this case I may be instructive: I am buying two *EVs this year: the LEAF bought last month and a Prime anticipated in February. The Volt is a 'tweener that poorly serves most of my family's use cases.
2013 Model 'S' with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California with 63.9 Ahr after 22k miles
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado

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