Electric-car pioneers vs mainstream buyers: how they differ, in Canada (exclusive)

Via GCR: http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1105454_electric-car-pioneers-vs-mainstream-buyers-how-they-differ-in-canada-exclusive

. . . The findings should remind proponents and advocates that the broader public doesn't always share their motivations or product preferences. . . .

Shifting to the terminology used in the Canadian Plug-in Electric Vehicle Study, electric-car pioneers can and will pay a premium to be part of a revolutionary advance, and they will accept risks and inconveniences if necessary.

The Potential Early Mainstream buyers, being pragmatists, are risk-averse and prefer evolutionary change. They're not willing to make those compromises. . . .

Pioneer and Mainstream respondents differed from the outset, with Pioneers slightly favoring all-electric vehicles while the Mainstream overwhelmingly preferred plug-in hybrids.

This is consistent with Mainstream buyers being risk-averse; the presence of a parallel combustion system likely provided comfort.

The number of vehicles in the household was probably another factor. While only 14 percent of British Columbia Pioneers (one in seven) lived in one-car households, fully 43 percent of the province's Early Majority (three in seven) did. That suggests that their chosen vehicle would have to be less specialized, and more suitable for road trips, camping, and other vehicular activities. . . .

Men made up 82 percent of the Pioneer group, and 49 percent reported household incomes above $125,000. Only 36 percent of the Early Mainstream participants were male, and 66 percent had household incomes below $90,000[/b].

When the respondents' values and paradigms were assessed using a standard social-science protocol, Pioneers were found to have significantly higher technology and environmental orientations relative to the Mainstream. . . .

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Which is why I consider providing a $25k MSRP, 20 mile AER PHEV more important at the moment for mainstream acceptance than any BEV. Depending on how Toyota prices it, the Prius Prime may be close, ugly though it is.

GRA said:

Which is why I consider providing a $25k MSRP, 20 mile AER PHEV more important at the moment for mainstream acceptance than any BEV. Depending on how Toyota prices it, the Prius Prime may be close, ugly though it is.

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Which IMO could lead to the demise of BEV vehicles....(or at least the usefulness of them for some).
I mean if very short range PHEVs become the norm I can easily see a time when all the charging stations will be full of people needing a short charge and or leave their vehicles plugged in for longer than they need, locking out someone with a BEV that really needs a charge(and has no other option like a backup ICE) to get to their next destination.
For people who use public charging stations(and I'm not one of them) be careful what you wish for......

jjeff said:

GRA said:

Which is why I consider providing a $25k MSRP, 20 mile AER PHEV more important at the moment for mainstream acceptance than any BEV. Depending on how Toyota prices it, the Prius Prime may be close, ugly though it is.

Click to expand...

Which IMO could lead to the demise of BEV vehicles....(or at least the usefulness of them for some).
I mean if very short range PHEVs become the norm I can easily see a time when all the charging stations will be full of people needing a short charge and or leave their vehicles plugged in for longer than they need, locking out someone with a BEV that really needs a charge(and has no other option like a backup ICE) to get to their next destination.
For people who use public charging stations(and I'm not one of them) be careful what you wish for......

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If PHEVs became the norm, and BEV sales decreased, I could see public charging stations going away, or at least not improving/growing. No one would pay public charging network rates instead of just filling the tank for much lower cost at the gas station and only charging at home. There would be no lines at chargers. There would be no commercial viability for those charging networks to operate. Right now, you pay for those public charger rates when you need the convenience of fast charging, you are not simply paying for electricity, hence the higher rates that can potentially make a charging network viable.

I mean if very short range PHEVs become the norm I can easily see a time when all the charging stations will be full of people needing a short charge and or leave their vehicles plugged in for longer than they need, locking out someone with a BEV that really needs a charge(and has no other option like a backup ICE) to get to their next destination.

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I assume that you meant "wanting a short charge".

LeftieBiker said:

I mean if very short range PHEVs become the norm I can easily see a time when all the charging stations will be full of people needing a short charge and or leave their vehicles plugged in for longer than they need, locking out someone with a BEV that really needs a charge(and has no other option like a backup ICE) to get to their next destination.

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I assume that you meant "wanting a short charge".

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Very true and for Firetruck41 I was more thinking about the courtesy EVSEs you see outside restaurants, shopping areas, etc. and not so much the pay to charge EVSEs where like you said, someone with a PHEV would probably just avoid and instead run on gas until they got home or came upon a free public charging station.
Of course I'd think QC stations would always be open to BEVs(those equipped) as I doubt PHEVs are going to go through the added expense to have that feature.

jjeff said:

GRA said:

Which is why I consider providing a $25k MSRP, 20 mile AER PHEV more important at the moment for mainstream acceptance than any BEV. Depending on how Toyota prices it, the Prius Prime may be close, ugly though it is.

Click to expand...

Which IMO could lead to the demise of BEV vehicles....(or at least the usefulness of them for some).
I mean if very short range PHEVs become the norm I can easily see a time when all the charging stations will be full of people needing a short charge and or leave their vehicles plugged in for longer than they need, locking out someone with a BEV that really needs a charge (and has no other option like a backup ICE) to get to their next destination.
For people who use public charging stations(and I'm not one of them) be careful what you wish for......

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Nah, as has been said before, PHEVs are the gateway drug to BEVs. As the latter improve in cost and capability and public charging infrastructure increases, people will switch over, maybe opting for one more generation of (longer-ranged) PHEV in the interim. The advantage now of ~20 mile AER PHEVs, aside from their lower price/weight and less encroachment on pax or cargo space than PHEVs with bigger batteries, is that you can completely fill them in 8 hours or less using only L1 charging, lowering the price of entry even more for renters, making home charging more widely available and making installation of workplace and public charging cheaper as well. In a decade or two, requiring L2 charging provisions for all new residential construction of whatever type will increasingly be the norm, so switching over completely to bigger battery PEVs will be easier at that time. As it is, 20 miles AER will cover the routine daily driving needs of almost 50% of U.S. drivers, which would be a huge benefit for urban air pollution, and also affect GHGs.

If PEVs are going to become mainstream, they need to be practical for the largest possible market. A couple of years back one of the PEV sites had an article that stated that the size of the potential market doubled for every $5k drop in the price; if accurate, going from $35k to $25k means a fourfold increase in the potential market. Getting the MSRP down will be especially important as manufacturers exceed the 200k cutoff for federal PEV tax credits. As it is, I hope Toyota will set the Prius Prime's MSRP under $30k. Combined with federal and any state or local incentives that will get its price down to within spitting distance of an HEV Prius. But to get the people who lack the tax liability to take advantage of that, the MSRP will have to come down even more.

jjeff said:

GRA said:

Which is why I consider providing a $25k MSRP, 20 mile AER PHEV more important at the moment for mainstream acceptance than any BEV. Depending on how Toyota prices it, the Prius Prime may be close, ugly though it is.

Click to expand...

Which IMO could lead to the demise of BEV vehicles....(or at least the usefulness of them for some).
I mean if very short range PHEVs become the norm I can easily see a time when all the charging stations will be full of people needing a short charge and or leave their vehicles plugged in for longer than they need, locking out someone with a BEV that really needs a charge(and has no other option like a backup ICE) to get to their next destination.
For people who use public charging stations(and I'm not one of them) be careful what you wish for......

Click to expand...

You make some valid points, but you are focused too much on L2 charging. With the pending arrival of 200+ mile BEVs, the need/desire for L2 public charging will drop anyway. I mean, with 200+ miles of range, the vast majority will not need to charge except overnight or on long trips. And with 50+ kWh batteries, who is going to want to sit at an L2 charger to top off? They are going to demand QCs which, as you point out, PHEVs cannot typically use.

I agree with GRA. I think a $25k PHEV20 would be groundbreaking. In fact, $25k is exactly what I paid for my PHEV20. My 2015 CMax Energi was $25k after incentives. And it's absolutely game changing for me. Unfortunately, not many people are biting today. Ford is offering even better deals in many places, yet people aren't convinced yet.

GetOffYourGas said:

You make some valid points, but you are focused too much on L2 charging. With the pending arrival of 200+ mile BEVs, the need/desire for L2 public charging will drop anyway. I mean, with 200+ miles of range, the vast majority will not need to charge except overnight or on long trips. And with 50+ kWh batteries, who is going to want to sit at an L2 charger to top off?

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I do not believe that the release of 200-mile BEVs will reduce the need/desire for L2 charging. First of all, I expect that the number of 200-mile BEVs sold will be AT LEAST an order of magnitude higher than the number of first-generation BEVs. So, while there will be less need for charging on outings for HOMEOWNERS, there will be MANY more owners who will be making BEVs work even though they do not have home charging available. As such, they will look for destination charging wherever they go. If they can pick up enough charge to cover their trip, then they will be net-zero for the trip. IMO, the bottlenecks at L2s will be likely get much, much worse before things improve.

OTOH, I do agree that the demand for QCs will increase drastically.

RegGuheert said:

GetOffYourGas said:

You make some valid points, but you are focused too much on L2 charging. With the pending arrival of 200+ mile BEVs, the need/desire for L2 public charging will drop anyway. I mean, with 200+ miles of range, the vast majority will not need to charge except overnight or on long trips. And with 50+ kWh batteries, who is going to want to sit at an L2 charger to top off?

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I do not believe that the release of 200-mile BEVs will reduce the need/desire for L2 charging. First of all, I expect that the number of 200-mile BEVs sold will be AT LEAST an order of magnitude higher than the number of first-generation BEVs. So, while there will be less need for charging on outings for HOMEOWNERS, there will be MANY more owners who will be making BEVs work even though they do not have home charging available. As such, they will look for destination charging wherever they go. If they can pick up enough charge to cover their trip, then they will be net-zero for the trip. IMO, the bottlenecks at L2s will be likely get much, much worse before things improve.

OTOH, I do agree that the demand for QCs will increase drastically.

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I guess it could happen like that. I don't expect many non-homeowners to jump into 200-mile BEVs without a reliable/robust local QC infrastructure. Just hoping to catch one of the two chargers at Price Chopper sounds like a recipe for disaster.

GetOffYourGas said:

I guess it could happen like that. I don't expect many non-homeowners to jump into 200-mile BEVs without a reliable/robust local QC infrastructure. Just hoping to catch one of the two chargers at Price Chopper sounds like a recipe for disaster.

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My son is one who is doing this. He has a deposit on a Tesla Model 3, but there is no charging infrastructure at his condominium. It will be interesting to see how things play out. If I have to guess, the condo ultimately will make a fortune off my son and others like him by charging a ridiculous monthly fee to provide charging infrastructure at his parking spot. But I wonder how long it will be between when he gets the car until they give in to owners' demands for charging capabilities.

GetOffYourGas said:

RegGuheert said:

I do not believe that the release of 200-mile BEVs will reduce the need/desire for L2 charging. First of all, I expect that the number of 200-mile BEVs sold will be AT LEAST an order of magnitude higher than the number of first-generation BEVs. So, while there will be less need for charging on outings for HOMEOWNERS, there will be MANY more owners who will be making BEVs work even though they do not have home charging available. As such, they will look for destination charging wherever they go. If they can pick up enough charge to cover their trip, then they will be net-zero for the trip. IMO, the bottlenecks at L2s will be likely get much, much worse before things improve.

OTOH, I do agree that the demand for QCs will increase drastically.

Click to expand...

I guess it could happen like that. I don't expect many non-homeowners to jump into 200-mile BEVs without a reliable/robust local QC infrastructure. Just hoping to catch one of the two chargers at Price Chopper sounds like a recipe for disaster.

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I expect we'll see some L2 charging, almost certainly wireless going forward, at virtually all publicly-accessible parking lots and garages with half/all day or overnight parking to handle the apartment/condo dwellers who can't charge at home. Add in businesses with L1 or L2, plus all hotels/inns etc. with L2 as destination charging. Over time, all new MFH will have L2 charging installed ab initio. Curbside charging, whether L1 or L2, is the most expensive option (other than QCs), and the last that will occur. With autonomous car-sharing and the likely large decrease in car ownership due to that, it may not even be needed. Local QCs instead would require way too much upgrading of the distribution infrastructure, until cheap storage is available.

One of the advantages of L1 and low power L2 is that it can be generated for one car by the PV modules covering a typical 18' x 8' parking space*, making retrofits of parking lots with same relatively easy and cost-effective. The upper levels of multi-story parking garages may also be retrofitted, albeit more expensively.

*18 x 8 = 144 ft.^2 =~13.4 m^2. Assuming 200W/m^2 of module, that's about 2.5 kW per space under peak sun conditions, and allowing for a charging efficiency of 87.5% that's still ~2.3 kW to the battery.

GRA said:

One of the advantages of L1 and low power L2 is that it can be generated for one car by the PV modules covering a typical 18' x 8' parking space*, making retrofits of parking lots with same relatively easy and cost-effective. The upper levels of multi-story parking garages may also be retrofitted, albeit more expensively.

*18 x 8 = 144 ft.^2 =~13.4 m^2. Assuming 200W/m^2 of module, that's about 2.5 kW per space under peak sun conditions, and allowing for a charging efficiency of 87.5% that's still ~2.3 kW to the battery.

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My 54-PV-module PV array produces about 18 MWh/year. My LEAF consumes about 2 MWh/year, so the production of 6 235-Wp modules covers the LEAF's usage. Today's modern PV modules with 280+Wp will handle lower efficiency BEVs. Therefore, eight PV modules should handle the standard 12,000 miles/year vehicle. Each PV module is 1.7 m^2 or 17 ft^2 so the total requirement is about 136 ft^2 per BEV. In other words, I get almost exactly the same result you get but based on energy rather than power. (I will say that power is of no consequence since charging will not occur at the same time as the sun is shining until the day when we get something like BEV net metering.)

Of course many parking spaces may not have access to sunlight. For instance, my son parks in a parking garage. Also, in northern climates like Seattle, the production will be much lower (but the incentives are high there).

RegGuheert said:

GRA said:

One of the advantages of L1 and low power L2 is that it can be generated for one car by the PV modules covering a typical 18' x 8' parking space*, making retrofits of parking lots with same relatively easy and cost-effective. The upper levels of multi-story parking garages may also be retrofitted, albeit more expensively.

*18 x 8 = 144 ft.^2 =~13.4 m^2. Assuming 200W/m^2 of module, that's about 2.5 kW per space under peak sun conditions, and allowing for a charging efficiency of 87.5% that's still ~2.3 kW to the battery.

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My 54-PV-module PV array produces about 18 MWh/year. My LEAF consumes about 2 MWh/year, so the production of 6 235-Wp modules covers the LEAF's usage. Today's modern PV modules with 280+Wp will handle lower efficiency BEVs. Therefore, eight PV modules should handle the standard 12,000 miles/year vehicle. Each PV module is 1.7 m^2 or 17 ft^2 so the total requirement is about 136 ft^2 per BEV. In other words, I get almost exactly the same result you get but based on energy rather than power. (I will say that power is of no consequence since charging will not occur at the same time as the sun is shining until the day when we get something like BEV net metering.)

Of course many parking spaces may not have access to sunlight. For instance, my son parks in a parking garage. Also, in northern climates like Seattle, the production will be much lower (but the incentives are high there).

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I was thinking more of public daytime lots/garages getting PV first, as they can charge directly (why I used power instead of energy), and requiring them for such locations is likely to be easier than retrofitting apartment house lots.