AFV Truck/Commercial Vehicle and (non-BEV) Bus thread

RegGuheert
Posts: 6292
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:12 am
Delivery Date: 16 Mar 2012
Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Northern VA

Nikola hydrogen semi truck with free H2 fuel

Here are my thoughts on Nikola providing free H2 fuel as part of their lease:

I suppose this company is for those investors and customer who are not good at math. They offer to lease a truck for \$5000.00/month ALL-IN. Truck, fuel, maintenance, everything. And you get a new truck every seven years. That's to replace a diesel truck that consumes \$10,000/month just in fuel.

Since I have calculated the COST of producing H2 fuel from hydrolysis to be about \$10/kg, we'll use that round number as a starting point for this calculation. Nikola expects each truck to consume 50 to 75 kg of H2 each day. So how much does it COST Nikola to provide fuel for each truck for one month? 75 kg/day * 10 \$/kg * 30 days/month = \$22,500.00/month.

I'm sorry, but even if you manage to find that I'm off by a factor of FOUR the fuel will STILL cost more than they are taking in for the lease of the truck. If I am off by a factor of EIGHT, then that leaves \$2200 per month to pay for building a new truck every seven years, pay for maintenance and provide profits to investors. Does anyone REALLY think that H2 fuel can be made from water for less than the price of diesel fuel?

It's a pretty website, but I have to conclude that it is an elaborate joke.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K mi. on 041413; 20K mi. (55.7Ah) on 080714; 30K mi. (52.0Ah) on 123015; 40K mi. (49.8Ah) on 020817; 50K mi. (47.2Ah) on 120717; 60K mi. (43.66Ah) on 091918.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

GetOffYourGas
Posts: 1874
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:56 pm
Delivery Date: 09 Mar 2012
Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: AFV Truck/Commercial Vehicle and (non-BEV) Bus thread

I'm not familiar with Nikola's deal. Do they specify where the H2 comes from? Must it come from hydrolysis or can it come from steam-reformed CH4? And how much does it cost to make a kg of H2 from CH4?

Hydrogen advocates love to point out that 1) Hydrogen is abundant and 2) the fuel can be made from water. What they don't ever mention is that 1) that abundant hydrogen is not chemically accessible without expending a ton of energy to get it and 2) today's fuel (and fuel in the future) actually comes from natural gas.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV (traded for Bolt)
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)
2017 Bolt Premier

GRA
Posts: 9104
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: AFV Truck/Commercial Vehicle and (non-BEV) Bus thread

GetOffYourGas, below are all the posts I've made in this topic in chronological order providing article links re Nikola, which should answer some of your questions (and are as much detail as we have):

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=22441&p=468790&hilit=nikola#p468790

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=22441&p=476655&hilit=nikola#p476655

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=22441&p=498363&hilit=nikola#p498363

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=22441&p=505763&hilit=nikola#p505763

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=22441&p=511046&hilit=nikola#p511046

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=14744&p=511497&hilit=nikola#p511497

As to your first question, the original plan was to use onsite electrolysis, but as you'll see that appears to be in flux, as there's later discussion of making it off-site and trucking it in liquid form.

Last edited by GRA on Wed Jan 31, 2018 5:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 9104
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: AFV Truck/Commercial Vehicle and (non-BEV) Bus thread

Just spotted this at GCC:
Nikola Motor to manufacture hydrogen-electric semi in Arizona
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2018/01/20180131-nikola.html

Arizona Governor Doug Ducey and Nikola Motor Company announced the company has selected Buckeye, Arizona for its Nikola Motor Company hydrogen-electric range-extended semi-truck (earlier post) manufacturing headquarters facility. The new 500-acre, one million square foot facility will be located on the west side of Phoenix and will bring more than \$1 billion in capital investment to the region by 2024. . . .

The company has more than 8,000 of its hydrogen fuel cell range-extended electric trucks on preorder.

Development of the . . . manufacturing plant . . . is projected to begin by the end of 2019. The site is at one of the entrances to Douglas Ranch/Trillium, a new master planned community being developed. . . this community is projected to ultimately be home to more than 300,000 residents.

As they said that they would allow anyone to fuel at their stations, this strikes me as a good location as they could not only have employees living there but also provide fuel for the FCEVs of residents. Always assuming, of course, that this isn't just another Faraday Future, Better Place or any number of other EV startups, and that FCEVs become viable.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 9104
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: AFV Truck/Commercial Vehicle and (non-BEV) Bus thread

Via GCC:
Renault Trucks will launch a range of electric trucks in 2019
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2018/01/20180131-renault.html

. . . These all-electric trucks are designed for use in urban and peri-urban areas and will be produced at the Renault Trucks plant at Blainville-sur-Orne in Normandy, France. . . .

Real-world tests on various types of experimental full-electric 12-16 tonne trucks—Speed Distribution for Guerlain, Stef for Carrefour, Nestlé and the Delanchy Group—have provided Renault Trucks with information on conditions of use, battery behavior, recharging facilities and specific maintenance requirements for electric trucks.

In addition to these experimental vehicles, a 4.5-tonne electric truck has been on the market since 2010, the Electric Maxity.

Our commercial experience with the Electric Maxity has enabled us to bring our network up to speed on selling, servicing and repairing electric vehicles. Today’s electric vehicles are a competitive solution, which was not the case in 2010.

—François Savoye, in charge of Renault Trucks’ energy efficiency strategy . . . .
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GetOffYourGas
Posts: 1874
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:56 pm
Delivery Date: 09 Mar 2012
Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: AFV Truck/Commercial Vehicle and (non-BEV) Bus thread

GRA wrote:GetOffYourGas, below are all the posts I've made in this topic in chronological order providing article links re Nikola, which should answer some of your questions (and are as much detail as we have)

Thanks. I try to read all of these press releases, but there is a lot. So they want to produce as much H2 as possible on-site via renewables. That model requires a heck of a lot of up-front capital. But if they actually got the infrastructure in place, the ongoing costs are somewhat low. I wonder how the costs compare to having a Better-Place-like battery swap system for your fleet, and recharging the backup batteries with renewables. I'm sure that Nikola hasn't run those numbers since they are in the hydrogen game.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV (traded for Bolt)
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)
2017 Bolt Premier

RegGuheert
Posts: 6292
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:12 am
Delivery Date: 16 Mar 2012
Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Northern VA

Re: AFV Truck/Commercial Vehicle and (non-BEV) Bus thread

GetOffYourGas wrote:I'm not familiar with Nikola's deal. Do they specify where the H2 comes from? Must it come from hydrolysis or can it come from steam-reformed CH4? And how much does it cost to make a kg of H2 from CH4?
This press release discusses some of the details:
Nikola Press Release wrote:Each station is anticipated to have the following specifications:
- Nel ASA to provide engineering, electrolysis, and fueling equipment. Nikola will provide the balance of plant, construction, dispensers and other station equipment.
- Hydrogen stations will initially produce up to eight tons daily, but can also be expanded up to 32 tons per day
- Each Nikola truck is anticipated to consume around 50-75 kgs per day
- Each Nikola truck will store between two and three megawatt hours (MWh) of energy
- Each station will have around 4,000 kgs of backup storage for redundancy
- Each station is anticipated to produce hydrogen at 700 bar (10,000 psi) and 350 bar (5,000 psi)
- Nikola will allow all hydrogen vehicles to fill at their stations

Nikola’s objective is to produce hydrogen through zero emission methods whenever possible by using wind,
solar and hydro-electricity.
In other words, initially, each station can service a maximum fleet of 20 Nikola trucks for a total maximum fleet size of 320 trucks. They claim they can quadruple the production, which would expand the fleet size to be as large as 1280 trucks.

But they have reservations for 8,000 trucks, so likely they will need to build about 112 additional filling stations to support that fleet.

So, how much will JUST the electricity cost to run the electrolyzers for 128 stations producing 32 tons of H2 each day? (I'll use tonnes for the calculation.)
- From an earlier presentation in this thread, it takes about about 53 kWh to hydrolyze and compress 1 kg of H2. That does not include the electricity needed to cool the H2 in order to compress it into the truck's tank.
- I will use \$0.10/kWh to get a baseline cost of electricity.
128 stations * 32 tonnes/station/day * 30 days/month * 1000 kg/tonne * 53 kWh/kg * \$0.10/kWh = \$651 MILLION per month, JUST for electricity.

But how much revenue will they collect per month from these 8000 trucks?
8000 trucks * 5000 \$/truck/month = \$40 MILLION per month

They won't be able to shut the doors to this place fast enough!
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K mi. on 041413; 20K mi. (55.7Ah) on 080714; 30K mi. (52.0Ah) on 123015; 40K mi. (49.8Ah) on 020817; 50K mi. (47.2Ah) on 120717; 60K mi. (43.66Ah) on 091918.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

GetOffYourGas
Posts: 1874
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:56 pm
Delivery Date: 09 Mar 2012
Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: AFV Truck/Commercial Vehicle and (non-BEV) Bus thread

Quiet, Reg, you'll spook the investors!
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV (traded for Bolt)
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)
2017 Bolt Premier

GRA
Posts: 9104
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: AFV Truck/Commercial Vehicle and (non-BEV) Bus thread

Via GCC:
SunLine Transit puts new long-range fuel-cell range extended electric bus into service
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2018/02/20180203-sunline.html

With funding from the private sector, the Federal Transit Administration, and the California Energy Commission, SunLine Transit unveiled an electric bus with a fuel cell range extender to support a 250-300-mile daily route. SunLine Transit agency has been a leading innovator in the national transit industry. This bus represents the 8th generation bus utilizing fuel cell technology placed in revenue service in the Coachella Valley.

After testing several different fuel cell technologies over the years, we believe we may have identified the configuration that will allow the transit and heavy-truck industry to successfully deploy fuel cell technology over the next decade.

—Lauren Skiver, General Manager of SunLine Transit Agency. . . .

The bus, which meets the federal government’s strict “Buy America” requirements, will be produced by ElDorado National, which is based in Riverside, California. The 80-kW fuel cell was built by US Hybrid which is based in Torrance, California. BAE Systems is the over-all system integrator and provider of the powertrain and electronics. . . .
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 9104
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: AFV Truck/Commercial Vehicle and (non-BEV) Bus thread

Via GCC:
Trillium CNG expands offerings to include hydrogen fueling
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2018/02 ... llium.html

Trillium CNG, a leading US provider of compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicle fueling facilities . . . will design, build and maintain hydrogen fueling stations. Trillium’s new services also include electric vehicle charging infrastructure, solar panel installation, and microgrid design and construction.

The company will begin construction on its first hydrogen fueling station for fuel cell electric buses this summer for the Orange County Transportation Authority’s (OCTA) Santa Ana, California, facility. . . .

The station will fuel transit buses with approximately 35 kilograms of hydrogen per bus in 6 to 10 minutes simultaneously from two fueling lanes.

OCTA’s hydrogen bus fleet will comprise 10 hydrogen fuel cell electric buses, but the station is built for future growth and will provide the same fueling performance for a fleet of 50 buses. Infrastructure will be added to OCTA’s existing CNG fueling lanes. The current station was designed and built by Trillium in 2007 and continues to be maintained by Trillium.

The project is the result of several groups working together. Air Products & Chemicals, Inc . . . will supply and deliver liquid hydrogen on a weekly basis to the facility. The fuel will then be pumped and vaporized into high pressure gas before being dispensed onto buses. . . .

Trillium plans to introduce electric vehicle charging stations for its customers and at select Love’s Travel Stops locations later this year. Solar panel installation and microgrid design and construction will also be introduced later this year.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.