DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 12322
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 8:22 am

dgpcolorado wrote:
GRA wrote:
eyedrop wrote:Does anyone have a good guess on when the used 2013 base model S will drop below $30k used? With the Model 3 at 35k brand new and all the hype, I'm hoping to get a lower base model S in the next year or two. Family and wife gives green light as soon as we find a $29,000 Tesla with a clean title...

I'd expect the advent of the Model 3 would considerably hasten the drop in used S prices.
That's my expectation as well. I think we might see a $30k S60 as soon as a year from now.


hmmm? well its all based on supply and demand and don't think the supply will be enough to warrant that much of a price cut.
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 (build 10/2016)"low water marks" 27,000 miles.363GID Ahr 79.13Hx95.17%kwh28.1QCs238,L2's 251
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

edatoakrun
Posts: 4749
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 9:33 am
Delivery Date: 15 May 2011
Leaf Number: 2184
Location: Shasta County, North California

Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 12:04 pm

DaveinOlyWA wrote:
dgpcolorado wrote:
GRA wrote:I'd expect the advent of the Model 3 would considerably hasten the drop in used S prices.
That's my expectation as well. I think we might see a $30k S60 as soon as a year from now.


hmmm? well its all based on supply and demand and don't think the supply will be enough to warrant that much of a price cut.

To repete, that much of a price cut has already occurred.

...KBB, 2012 S60 base, 80k miles, private party sale.

Price ranges from fair condition ~$29.6k, to excellent condition ~$35.5k.

https://www.kbb.com/tesla/model-s/2012/ ... ition=fair

Find one with >100k miles, and prices come down to the $25k-$30k range...

Here's a nearly-new S90 D that looks likely to be for sale soon...

BATTERY TOO WEAK.

Environment minister restrains service-Tesla


...Green-politician Remmel had wanted to use the electric car as a sign for the expansion of electric mobility.
However, the car had failed as a ministerial body during the trials which ended in May.
"The maximum range was in the long-range tests, depending on driving style and route profile, under 300 kilometers. This range could only be exhausted if it was then ensured that the batteries could be charged...

http://www.bild.de/regional/duesseldorf ... .bild.html
no condition is permanent

Firetruck41
Posts: 501
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:36 am
Leaf Number: 408264
Location: SW Washington State

Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 12:39 pm

edatoakrun wrote:
DaveinOlyWA wrote:
dgpcolorado wrote:That's my expectation as well. I think we might see a $30k S60 as soon as a year from now.


hmmm? well its all based on supply and demand and don't think the supply will be enough to warrant that much of a price cut.

To repete, that much of a price cut has already occurred.

...KBB, 2012 S60 base, 80k miles, private party sale.

Price ranges from fair condition ~$29.6k, to excellent condition ~$35.5k.

https://www.kbb.com/tesla/model-s/2012/ ... ition=fair

Find one with >100k miles, and prices come down to the $25k-$30k range...


No they are not. KBB does not sell cars. They are not even very accurate when it comes to estimating the value of a car. I'm afraid your Tesla hatred has blinded you to reality again.

Of 485 used Model S for sale on cars.com, the cheapest is $37.9k and only 16 under $40k
Of 470 on autotrader only 7 under $39.9k, cheapest is 35.9 and is rebuilt/salvage
A search of craigslist in the US via search tempest shows about 6-8 for $37-39.9, I believe some are salvage.

You could get a brand new Tesla for $1000 if you buy the winning ticket in the sweepstakes I saw online, but until someone can jump on Craigslist or one of the major classified sites and find at least one or two in their metro area for $30k, I would refrain from saying they are already available at that price. Realistically, they are still $10k above that at the cheapest.
8/2015- New to me 12bar 2013 SV w/QC package and 37k miles

edatoakrun
Posts: 4749
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 9:33 am
Delivery Date: 15 May 2011
Leaf Number: 2184
Location: Shasta County, North California

Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:06 pm

Firetruck41 wrote:
edatoakrun wrote:
DaveinOlyWA wrote:
hmmm? well its all based on supply and demand and don't think the supply will be enough to warrant that much of a price cut.

To repete, that much of a price cut has already occurred.

...KBB, 2012 S60 base, 80k miles, private party sale.

Price ranges from fair condition ~$29.6k, to excellent condition ~$35.5k.

https://www.kbb.com/tesla/model-s/2012/ ... ition=fair

Find one with >100k miles, and prices come down to the $25k-$30k range...


No they are not. KBB does not sell cars. They are not even very accurate when it comes to estimating the value of a car. I'm afraid your Tesla hatred has blinded you to reality again.

Of 485 used Model S for sale on cars.com, the cheapest is $37.9k and only 16 under $40K...

Asking prices do not reflect actual transaction prices, especially in markets where prices are falling rapidly.

These both appear to be legitimate sales which show what you can get for ~$35k to ~$40 k.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2013-Tesla-Mode ... SJ&vxp=mtr

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2013-Tesla-Mode ... x3&vxp=mtr

As comparing those two sales show, Tesla depreciation corresponds closely to miles driven

Even after the first 100k miles, they still seem to continue to depreciate ~25 cents, for every additional mile.

It's true there are not any recent sales for 2012 Base S's reported on EBAY, or anywhere else?

Did TSLA make more than a few of them?

I agree KBB is not always accurate, but in my experience (none recently, my last used-car purchase was in 1999) I was always able to buy used cars from private parties below KBB prices.
Last edited by edatoakrun on Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
no condition is permanent

DaveinOlyWA
Posts: 12322
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:13 pm

Again, I live in the wrong area. I checked and the best price in a 150 mile area for me was $50,000. It was low miles though, only 28,000 but the next cheapest was $60,000.... not quite to 30 I think.
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 (build 10/2016)"low water marks" 27,000 miles.363GID Ahr 79.13Hx95.17%kwh28.1QCs238,L2's 251
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Firetruck41
Posts: 501
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:36 am
Leaf Number: 408264
Location: SW Washington State

Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:16 pm

edatoakrun wrote:
Firetruck41 wrote:
edatoakrun wrote:To repete, that much of a price cut has already occurred.



No they are not. KBB does not sell cars. They are not even very accurate when it comes to estimating the value of a car. I'm afraid your Tesla hatred has blinded you to reality again.

Of 485 used Model S for sale on cars.com, the cheapest is $37.9k and only 16 under $40K...

Asking prices do not reflect actual transaction prices, especially in markets where prices are falling rapidly.

These both appear to be legitimate sales which show what you can get for ~$35k to ~$40 k.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2013-Tesla-Mode ... SJ&vxp=mtr

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2013-Tesla-Mode ... x3&vxp=mtr

As comparing those two sales show, Tesla depreciation corresponds closely to miles driven

Even after the first 100k miles, they still seem to continue to depreciate ~25 cents, for every additional mile.

It's true there are not any recent sales for 2012 Base S's reported on EBAY, or anywhere else?

Did TSLA make more than a few of them?


Yup, and I can get that $1k Tesla, if I am real lucky and am willing to travel across the country! :roll:

I don't think I will be making any statistical analysis on depreciation per mile, based on two ebay auctions.
8/2015- New to me 12bar 2013 SV w/QC package and 37k miles

edatoakrun
Posts: 4749
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 9:33 am
Delivery Date: 15 May 2011
Leaf Number: 2184
Location: Shasta County, North California

Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:34 pm

DaveinOlyWA wrote:Again, I live in the wrong area. I checked and the best price in a 150 mile area for me was $50,000. It was low miles though, only 28,000 but the next cheapest was $60,000.... not quite to 30 I think.

90 S's FS on EBAY at the moment. Take a look at:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2012-Tesla-Mode ... LS&vxp=mtr

2012 Tesla Model S 85 for sale

This is a two owner car. Second owner bought from Tesla and was given a 4 year, 50,000 mile bumper to bumper CPO warranty. In addition the battery and drivetrain have an 8 year, unlimited mileage warranty which started when car was first sold. Mileage at start of CPO warranty was approximately 54,000 miles, so there are 20,000 miles (roughly) left.

Car is loaded:
85 kWh battery, only degraded about 6%, and no degradation in the 1.5 years under current ownership
Panoramic roof
Active air suspension
Black car with tan leather seats
Tech package
Navigation included
Bluetooth included
Motorized trunk
Eco-hitch installed which is perfect for bike racks and such
Front and rear dashcams installed
Comes with charging cable and various adapters
No accidents that current owner is aware of
Clear title

Car is located in Surorise, AZ, which is Phoenix metro area (NW Phoenix)...


The $40k asking price reflects both the high (84k) miles, and that it is "loaded"

List price new must have been what, ~$100k, or higher?
no condition is permanent

Firetruck41
Posts: 501
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:36 am
Leaf Number: 408264
Location: SW Washington State

Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 2:19 pm

edatoakrun wrote:
DaveinOlyWA wrote:Again, I live in the wrong area. I checked and the best price in a 150 mile area for me was $50,000. It was low miles though, only 28,000 but the next cheapest was $60,000.... not quite to 30 I think.

90 S's FS on EBAY at the moment. Take a look at:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2012-Tesla-Mode ... LS&vxp=mtr

2012 Tesla Model S 85 for sale

This is a two owner car. Second owner bought from Tesla and was given a 4 year, 50,000 mile bumper to bumper CPO warranty. In addition the battery and drivetrain have an 8 year, unlimited mileage warranty which started when car was first sold. Mileage at start of CPO warranty was approximately 54,000 miles, so there are 20,000 miles (roughly) left.

Car is loaded:
85 kWh battery, only degraded about 6%, and no degradation in the 1.5 years under current ownership
Panoramic roof
Active air suspension
Black car with tan leather seats
Tech package
Navigation included
Bluetooth included
Motorized trunk
Eco-hitch installed which is perfect for bike racks and such
Front and rear dashcams installed
Comes with charging cable and various adapters
No accidents that current owner is aware of
Clear title

Car is located in Surorise, AZ, which is Phoenix metro area (NW Phoenix)...


The $40k asking price reflects both the high (84k) miles, and that it is "loaded"

List price new must have been what, ~$100k, or higher?

Crazy huh? That's why I never buy new (OK, I did once, out of about 20+ vehicles, it was a brand new model and I broke even selling it a few years later). Hopefully most people that buy a new vehicle have at least an inkling that this will be the case, especially purchasing luxo/near luxo type vehicles.

Per article on carfax:
Don’t be fooled into thinking depreciation slows much after the first year. The fact is, new cars continue to lose value for four more years, averaging a decline of 15-25 percent per year. On average, a new car will lose 60 percent of its total value over the first five years of its life.
8/2015- New to me 12bar 2013 SV w/QC package and 37k miles

User avatar
drees
Moderator
Posts: 6208
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 3:51 pm
Location: San Diego

Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 2:35 pm

edatoakrun wrote:The $40k asking price reflects both the high (84k) miles, and that it is "loaded"

List price new must have been what, ~$100k, or higher?

And what's the street price of a 2012 LEAF? A quick search on cars.com shows $7300-$10k, but IMO you'd be crazy to pay even the low end of the price unless you knew it had a lizard pack in it and 12 bars of capacity.

Proportionally, it's value is worse, even accounting for tax credits and rebates.
'11 LEAF SL Powered By 3.24 kW Enphase Solar PV

User avatar
dgpcolorado
Posts: 2971
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:56 pm
Delivery Date: 15 Dec 2011
Location: The Western Slope, Colorado

Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 2:44 pm

DaveinOlyWA wrote:
dgpcolorado wrote:
GRA wrote:I'd expect the advent of the Model 3 would considerably hasten the drop in used S prices.
That's my expectation as well. I think we might see a $30k S60 as soon as a year from now.


hmmm? well its all based on supply and demand and don't think the supply will be enough to warrant that much of a price cut.
CPO S60s are already in the $35k to $39k range, although they don't last long and are hard to find (those are the ones with the new 2 year, up to 100k total miles, full warranty, versus the usual 4 year 50k miles CPO warranty; all of them have the balance of the 8 year drive train warranty, of course). [BTW, a recent CPO $39k S60 had 58k miles on it and was a late 2014 model.]

With the ability to buy a brand new 3 for $36.2k to mid $40s, depending on options chosen, It is hard for me to see CPO Model Ses holding their current value. Perhaps abasile will be right and the CPO S will hold its value after the tax credits are gone and no longer skew the market. We shall see.

I like pretty much everything about the S better than the 3 but a new car for about the same price is tempting. If the 3 is designed to be so much simpler to build it also might be more reliable, although that remains to be seen. I'll be interested to see how things shake out with the 3, both in production and service. I don't need to worry about making a decision until 2019 since I can't use the federal tax credit anyway.
Blue 2012 SV Dec 2011 to Feb 2016
CPO 2014 Tesla S60 Mar 2016
One car, no ICE, at last!
Tesla Referral Code

Return to “Other Electric Cars & Plug-In Hybrids”