GRA
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Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Sun Jan 22, 2017 4:07 pm

arnis wrote:S200D is just barely capable of meeting a 8 hours plus 60 mile reserve range, @ 70 mph with no HVAC use with a brand new battery, and falls short at higher speeds, different temps with HVAC, less than 100% charge, etc.

To be effective, sarcasm needs to be relevant. What people want to replace ICEs in the U.S. is at least 300 miles of freeway range plus a reserve, year round, which realistically works out to 4 hours (at whatever the freeway speed is in the states they live in or most commonly visit, which in most cases is 70 mph or higher) plus 30 miles. That's what they're used to from a car, living in a continent-spanning country instead of one that would rank 42nd in size (#41, W. Virginia, 24,230 sq. miles. #42, Maryland, 12,407 sq. miles. Estonia 17,505 sq. miles) if it were a U.S. state, where lesser range might be acceptable. http://www.hybridcars.com/nrel-asks-consumers-what-it-will-take-to-purchase-an-ev/
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Zythryn
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Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Sun Jan 22, 2017 6:32 pm

GRA wrote:
arnis wrote:S200D is just barely capable of meeting a 8 hours plus 60 mile reserve range, @ 70 mph with no HVAC use with a brand new battery, and falls short at higher speeds, different temps with HVAC, less than 100% charge, etc.

To be effective, sarcasm needs to be relevant. What people want to replace ICEs in the U.S. is at least 300 miles of freeway range plus a reserve, year round, which realistically works out to 4 hours (at whatever the freeway speed is in the states they live in or most commonly visit, which in most cases is 70 mph or higher) plus 30 miles. That's what they're used to from a car, living in a continent-spanning country instead of one that would rank 42nd in size (#41, W. Virginia, 24,230 sq. miles. #42, Maryland, 12,407 sq. miles. Estonia 17,505 sq. miles) if it were a U.S. state, where lesser range might be acceptable. http://www.hybridcars.com/nrel-asks-consumers-what-it-will-take-to-purchase-an-ev/


This is misleading GRA.
According to the article, 56% of Americans find a 300 mile range is needed.
This is inclusive of the people that would require less range.
Of course, there are over 500 thousand Americans that find the current ranges work just fine.

It is not as clear cut as you like to say. Right now, the market of people that think 200 miles is sufficient is larger than the supply. Especially when a price of $37k is the price point.
Previous owner of Prius, Volt & Leaf
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GetOffYourGas
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Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Mon Jan 23, 2017 7:36 am

GRA wrote:
arnis wrote:S200D is just barely capable of meeting a 8 hours plus 60 mile reserve range, @ 70 mph with no HVAC use with a brand new battery, and falls short at higher speeds, different temps with HVAC, less than 100% charge, etc.

To be effective, sarcasm needs to be relevant. What people want to replace ICEs in the U.S. is at least 300 miles of freeway range plus a reserve, year round, which realistically works out to 4 hours (at whatever the freeway speed is in the states they live in or most commonly visit, which in most cases is 70 mph or higher) plus 30 miles. That's what they're used to from a car, living in a continent-spanning country instead of one that would rank 42nd in size (#41, W. Virginia, 24,230 sq. miles. #42, Maryland, 12,407 sq. miles. Estonia 17,505 sq. miles) if it were a U.S. state, where lesser range might be acceptable. http://www.hybridcars.com/nrel-asks-consumers-what-it-will-take-to-purchase-an-ev/


I don't put a whole lot of weight in these surveys, given that they invariably include a whole swath of responders who have zero experience with EVs.

Before I owned/drove an EV, I thought I'd need 300+ miles of range (in all conditions, including the depth of a Northeast winter) and <15 minute recharge time.

Now that I own an EV, I am thinking that 125 miles (assuming Tesla-Supercharger-like availability of QC infrastructure) would do just fine.

Yes, I am an enthusiast. No, I don't expect everyone to make the same leap that I did.

What I do believe is that, with proper education and understanding (and experience via PHEVs, especially the Volt), many people could come around to see that maybe Tesla is right - 200 miles + Superchargers is enough.
~Brian

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GRA
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Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Mon Jan 23, 2017 3:43 pm

Zythryn wrote:
GRA wrote:To be effective, sarcasm needs to be relevant. What people want to replace ICEs in the U.S. is at least 300 miles of freeway range plus a reserve, year round, which realistically works out to 4 hours (at whatever the freeway speed is in the states they live in or most commonly visit, which in most cases is 70 mph or higher) plus 30 miles. That's what they're used to from a car, living in a continent-spanning country instead of one that would rank 42nd in size (#41, W. Virginia, 24,230 sq. miles. #42, Maryland, 12,407 sq. miles. Estonia 17,505 sq. miles) if it were a U.S. state, where lesser range might be acceptable. http://www.hybridcars.com/nrel-asks-consumers-what-it-will-take-to-purchase-an-ev/

This is misleading GRA.
According to the article, 56% of Americans find a 300 mile range is needed.
This is inclusive of the people that would require less range.
Of course, there are over 500 thousand Americans that find the current ranges work just fine.

It is not as clear cut as you like to say. Right now, the market of people that think 200 miles is sufficient is larger than the supply. Especially when a price of $37k is the price point.

It remains to be seen whether the people who find 200 miles of range adequate extends beyond early adopters and some fast followers, especially at the $37k price point. There is certainly a larger market for a 200 mile BEV than for a 80 mile one for about the same price, but that's primarily because the 200 mile BEV will still be useful for local trips a decade down the road, and (for most people) the 80 mile one won't be. I'll be very interested to see what % of Bolts/Model 3s go to people moving up from Gen 1 BEVs, and what % are from people coming over from ICEs. I suspect that the latter will be a minority, especially until the charging infrastructure is a lot more extensive than it is.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Mon Jan 23, 2017 3:50 pm

GetOffYourGas wrote:
GRA wrote:To be effective, sarcasm needs to be relevant. What people want to replace ICEs in the U.S. is at least 300 miles of freeway range plus a reserve, year round, which realistically works out to 4 hours (at whatever the freeway speed is in the states they live in or most commonly visit, which in most cases is 70 mph or higher) plus 30 miles. That's what they're used to from a car, living in a continent-spanning country instead of one that would rank 42nd in size (#41, W. Virginia, 24,230 sq. miles. #42, Maryland, 12,407 sq. miles. Estonia 17,505 sq. miles) if it were a U.S. state, where lesser range might be acceptable. http://www.hybridcars.com/nrel-asks-consumers-what-it-will-take-to-purchase-an-ev/

I don't put a whole lot of weight in these surveys, given that they invariably include a whole swath of responders who have zero experience with EVs.

Before I owned/drove an EV, I thought I'd need 300+ miles of range (in all conditions, including the depth of a Northeast winter) and <15 minute recharge time.

Now that I own an EV, I am thinking that 125 miles (assuming Tesla-Supercharger-like availability of QC infrastructure) would do just fine.

Yes, I am an enthusiast. No, I don't expect everyone to make the same leap that I did.

What I do believe is that, with proper education and understanding (and experience via PHEVs, especially the Volt), many people could come around to see that maybe Tesla is right - 200 miles + Superchargers is enough.

The bolded section is the critical part - in order to achieve mass market status, you have to convince the people who have zero experience with EVs that there's some compelling reason to change from what they're familiar with. IMO, asking them to accept less than what they've come to expect and are comfortable with isn't going to work. I do think that PHEVs (or FCEVs if the infrastructure's available) are the way to go for them, to lessen the shock of the transition. But the typical mainstream consumer sees no compelling reason at present to switch to any AFV, given low fuel prices. If the federal credits get pulled, there'll be even less reason to do so, and outside the high end of the PEV market (Tesla/Porsche etc.), I believe only relatively affordable PHEVs like the Prius Prime are likely to be viable.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

arnis
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Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Mon Jan 23, 2017 3:55 pm

GetOffYourGas wrote:
Before I owned/drove an EV, I thought I'd need 300+ miles of range (in all conditions, including the depth of a Northeast winter) and <15 minute recharge time.

Now that I own an EV, I am thinking that 125 miles (assuming Tesla-Supercharger-like availability of QC infrastructure) would do just fine.


This is why almost every survey on this topic asked from general public is worthless.
It's just based on imagination and everybody has their own, mostly unrealistic or incorrect imagination.
Those who have not lived 1 month with EV + EVSE at home, are not allowed to vote as their vote represents their imagination and not real requirements.

Main misapprehension is due to assumption that "range" as a value is something that determines the maximum commute length.
Some suppose that it is "one way maximum limit", some suppose it is "round trip maximum limit" - both are wrong.
It was true years ago when it was not possible to fast or supercharge an EV.
Actual limitations are complex and explaining that to general public is unwise.
Real limitation is charge acceptance rate multiplied with charging availability. First one is mostly based on battery capacity.
My signature has basic explanation of the thing I'm talking about.
-- There are short range EV-s that are not suitable for long range commutes (measured in hundreds of miles) due to the fact that they
hardly charge at "fast" rate and charging frequency would be unreasonable.
-- There are medium range EV-s that are suitable for above-average commutes but are not well-suited for long range commutes (measured in hundreds of miles) due to the fact that they can charge at fast rate but average speed of very long trips will be noticeable slower compared to ICE. Still, due to cheaper price, this shortcoming is acceptable if long-range commutes happen rarely. Few hours lost annually does not justify additional investment in battery capacity (for example $5000).
-- There are long range EV-s that are suitable for occasional long commutes (measured in many hundreds of miles) due to the fact that they can accept charge at "supercharging" rate. Even with very long trip average speed hardly suffers compared to ICE vehicles.

It's true that it is not jet possible to fast/super charge eveywhere. And this is the true limitation. Not pack capacity.
200kWh pack will not solve a lot compared to 70kWh if there is nowhere to charge rapidly on the way.
One will be limited to 300 mile radius, another to 100 mile radius.
Percentage-wise it is something like this: One vehicle is good for 95.5% daily commutes, another is good for only 94.4%.
Both are better results compared to, let's say 30kWh Leaf, good for 91.1% daily commutes.
Let's suppose those numbers are based on worldwide average daily commute length. I'd add that ICE vehicles are good for 97.7% of all daily commutes. Hint: cars can't fly nor swim. Numbers don't represent reality - just estimations.

For me, 24kWh pack is good for 92% of daily commutes (whenever I get home I charge at Level2). If I had only 110V Level1 this number would fall below 80%. If I had 6.6kWh charger I might get 1% more.
With the help of fast charging infrastructure that covers 100% of the whole country, this number goes up from 92% to 96%.
I'm not able to comfortably travel more than 130 miles nonstop highway due to charge acceptance limitation. On average 24kWh Leaf can accept 5kWh per 10 minutes. In bad weather conditions average travelling speed is going down.
For me, ICE vehicle is good for 99,5% of commutes (I hardly need to travel by sea/air).
I still have my ICE due to those 3,5% I can't do with Leaf.
Short range EVs <30kWh -- Medium range: 30-60kWh -- Long range: >60kWh
Charging: Trickle <3kW -- Normal 3-22kW -- Fast 50-100kW -- Supercharging >100kW

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dgpcolorado
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Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Tue Jan 24, 2017 11:48 am

GRA wrote:It remains to be seen whether the people who find 200 miles of range adequate extends beyond early adopters and some fast followers, especially at the $37k price point. There is certainly a larger market for a 200 mile BEV than for a 80 mile one for about the same price, but that's primarily because the 200 mile BEV will still be useful for local trips a decade down the road, and (for most people) the 80 mile one won't be. I'll be very interested to see what % of Bolts/Model 3s go to people moving up from Gen 1 BEVs, and what % are from people coming over from ICEs. I suspect that the latter will be a minority, especially until the charging infrastructure is a lot more extensive than it is.
So far as acceptable range is concerned it is interesting to me that Tesla has discovered that most Model S owners don't do much roadtripping. That's why they chose 400 kWh/year for free Supercharging. That suggests to me that many people would be happy with a car that has a 200 mile all-weather range that was capable of doing the occasional longer road trips.

Once DCFC stations become as ubiquitous as gas stations I think a 200 mile all-weather range will prove to be satisfactory to most. Those unfamiliar with EVs might not believe that, but I think that once longer range EVs become more common they will eventually learn. There are distinct advantages to driving an EV and that may tip the balance despite a typical ICEV range of 400+ miles, 5 minute fueling stops, and fueling stations almost everywhere. In my view an EV doesn't have to be a perfect analog to an ICEV to be acceptable to most. Things like performance and a vastly more pleasurable driving experience matter too, especially for daily commuter use.
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lorenfb
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Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Wed Feb 01, 2017 10:36 am

GM delivers more Bolts than Tesla Model S in 1/2017?

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

finman100
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Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Wed Feb 01, 2017 11:17 am

Yay GM! Keep it up. It's a long race.

Oh no, Tesla is doomed. It's a long race.
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TonyWilliams
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Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Wed Feb 01, 2017 11:31 am

lorenfb wrote:GM delivers more Bolts than Tesla Model S in 1/2017?

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/


How many did each company ship overseas?

GM - 0

Tesla - ???

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