User avatar
drees
Moderator
Posts: 6193
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 3:51 pm
Location: San Diego

Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 2:54 pm

dgpcolorado wrote:With the ability to buy a brand new 3 for $36.2k to mid $40s, depending on options chosen, It is hard for me to see CPO Model Ses holding their current value. Perhaps abasile will be right and the CPO S will hold its value after the tax credits are gone and no longer skew the market.

Yeah, but you have to knock $10k off the price of the 3 in California ($12.5k in Colorado?) to get closer to apples-to-apples. And I personally would not consider a used Model S/X without the 4-year CPO warranty given the cost of certain out-of-warranty repairs.

Next of 2018 will be difference with tax credits running out for Tesla, but I highly suspect that with Tesla and GM running out next year, there will be a decent push to change the EV tax credit rules.
'11 LEAF SL Powered By 3.24 kW Enphase Solar PV

edatoakrun
Posts: 4563
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 9:33 am
Delivery Date: 15 May 2011
Leaf Number: 2184
Location: Shasta County, North California

Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 3:36 pm

drees wrote:
edatoakrun wrote:The $40k asking price reflects both the high (84k) miles, and that it is "loaded"

List price new must have been what, ~$100k, or higher?

And what's the street price of a 2012 LEAF? A quick search on cars.com shows $7300-$10k, but IMO you'd be crazy to pay even the low end of the price unless you knew it had a lizard pack in it and 12 bars of capacity.

Proportionally, it's value is worse, even accounting for tax credits and rebates.

All mass-market priced BEVs have depreciated rapidly over the last ~five years as the price for new BEVs in this class have dropped drastically, to the point that many are reporting purchasing new LEAFs (and other, compliance BEVs) for less than $10,000 after incentives.

That's less than half the price I paid over six years ago for a LEAF with only a ~21 kWh available pack, after incentives.

The depreciation resulting from new BEV price reductions doesn't bother me very much, as I've saved more $ on gas than I paid in excess BEV depreciation, and I don't see my next BEV costing too little, as being a problem for me...

I think you should expect rapid price cuts on new Ss and Xs by the time TSLA is engaged by its first competition in the luxury BEV market next year, if not before, resulting in accelerated depreciation rates on used Teslas, similar to what we have already seen in all lower-priced BEVs.

High TSLA initial purchase prices and other costs will mean TCO per mile for these BEVs will be even higher than the astronomical costs (compared with other BEVs) to date.
no condition is permanent

User avatar
dgpcolorado
Posts: 2949
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:56 pm
Delivery Date: 15 Dec 2011
Location: The Western Slope, Colorado

Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 6:01 pm

drees wrote:
dgpcolorado wrote:With the ability to buy a brand new 3 for $36.2k to mid $40s, depending on options chosen, It is hard for me to see CPO Model Ses holding their current value. Perhaps abasile will be right and the CPO S will hold its value after the tax credits are gone and no longer skew the market.

Yeah, but you have to knock $10k off the price of the 3 in California ($12.5k in Colorado?) to get closer to apples-to-apples. And I personally would not consider a used Model S/X without the 4-year CPO warranty given the cost of certain out-of-warranty repairs.
For me that 4 year CPO warranty is actually a little over two years, given my mileage. The Model S is my only car and is so much fun to drive — plus free Supercharging — that the miles add up quickly. Very different from my LEAF, with only 32k miles over more than four years, despite 70+ mile grocery shopping trips here. One advantage of the S — even a used one, if not too old — is the eight year drive train warranty. The 3 has only an eight year 100k/125k mile battery warranty. The drive train would be part of the general 4 year 50k mile warranty on the 3.
Next of 2018 will be difference with tax credits running out for Tesla, but I highly suspect that with Tesla and GM running out next year, there will be a decent push to change the EV tax credit rules.
In the current political climate I would be flabbergasted if the EV tax credit was extended in any way!

It seems time to let EVs stand on their own anyway. (Of course, that's easy for me to say since I don't qualify for the federal tax credit and the $5000 Colorado tax credit still has several years to run before it begins to phase out.)
Blue 2012 SV Dec 2011 to Feb 2016
CPO 2014 Tesla S60 Mar 2016
One car, no ICE, at last!
Tesla Referral Code

DaveinOlyWA
Gold Member
Posts: 11945
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Sat Aug 12, 2017 7:36 pm

dgpcolorado wrote:
DaveinOlyWA wrote:
dgpcolorado wrote:That's my expectation as well. I think we might see a $30k S60 as soon as a year from now.


hmmm? well its all based on supply and demand and don't think the supply will be enough to warrant that much of a price cut.
CPO S60s are already in the $35k to $39k range, although they don't last long and are hard to find (those are the ones with the new 2 year, up to 100k total miles, full warranty, versus the usual 4 year 50k miles CPO warranty; all of them have the balance of the 8 year drive train warranty, of course). [BTW, a recent CPO $39k S60 had 58k miles on it and was a late 2014 model.]

With the ability to buy a brand new 3 for $36.2k to mid $40s, depending on options chosen, It is hard for me to see CPO Model Ses holding their current value. Perhaps abasile will be right and the CPO S will hold its value after the tax credits are gone and no longer skew the market. We shall see.

I like pretty much everything about the S better than the 3 but a new car for about the same price is tempting. If the 3 is designed to be so much simpler to build it also might be more reliable, although that remains to be seen. I'll be interested to see how things shake out with the 3, both in production and service. I don't need to worry about making a decision until 2019 since I can't use the federal tax credit anyway.


I remember when Tesla tweaked the program and there were some GREAT deals as low as $32K but they disappeared immediately and have not been replaced despite several cars with nearly identical specs showing up later.
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles. 2016 S30 (build 10/2016); 22,003 miles. 363 GIDs, Ahr 82.34, Hx; 101.21% kwh 28.1 QCs 190, L2's 213
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

User avatar
drees
Moderator
Posts: 6193
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 3:51 pm
Location: San Diego

Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Sun Aug 13, 2017 10:34 am

dgpcolorado wrote:It seems time to let EVs stand on their own anyway.

Until there is some sort of pollution tax on ICE vehicles (and I'm not only talking CO2), I don't think we should consider removing incentives.
In states with high coal use, that may be counter productive to EV adoption, but that's OK as those grids need to get cleaned up, anyway.
'11 LEAF SL Powered By 3.24 kW Enphase Solar PV

User avatar
dgpcolorado
Posts: 2949
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:56 pm
Delivery Date: 15 Dec 2011
Location: The Western Slope, Colorado

Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Sun Aug 13, 2017 11:05 am

drees wrote:Until there is some sort of pollution tax on ICE vehicles (and I'm not only talking CO2), I don't think we should consider removing incentives.
In states with high coal use, that may be counter productive to EV adoption, but that's OK as those grids need to get cleaned up, anyway.
Will there ever be a pollution tax on ICEVs?

I guess I'm tired of the knock on EVs by dino fans that that they are all subsidized; we can argue all we want about how the pollution from ICEVs is subsidized, by not having to be paid for, but it does absolutely no good whatsoever. The current federal tax credit is only for those with high incomes anyway, so one can't even pretend that it is "fair".
Blue 2012 SV Dec 2011 to Feb 2016
CPO 2014 Tesla S60 Mar 2016
One car, no ICE, at last!
Tesla Referral Code

DaveinOlyWA
Gold Member
Posts: 11945
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Sun Aug 13, 2017 11:16 am

dgpcolorado wrote:
drees wrote:Until there is some sort of pollution tax on ICE vehicles (and I'm not only talking CO2), I don't think we should consider removing incentives.
In states with high coal use, that may be counter productive to EV adoption, but that's OK as those grids need to get cleaned up, anyway.
Will there ever be a pollution tax on ICEVs?

I guess I'm tired of the knock on EVs by dino fans that that they are all subsidized; we can argue all we want about how the pollution from ICEVs is subsidized, by not having to be paid for, but it does absolutely no good whatsoever. The current federal tax credit is only for those with high incomes anyway, so one can't even pretend that it is "fair".


nope, gassers will continue to smoke unimpeded. The Oil industry is basically creating debt wherever its spawn is allowed to operate and we are paying for it and the bad part of it is we have been brainwashed into thinking that the only thing that matters is gas prices.

But reality is starting to sink in. Parts of Western WA has been hit with fees and surcharges to finance a light rail expansion that is desperately needed but is still years away from making an impact.

part of it the enormous cost of the project but a lot it is simply the realization that we are woefully underpaying for the privilege to drive on the roads. So we are paying for both future expansion and the hidden debt that has accumulated over the years.

Be prepared, the issue is coming to your neighborhood too!
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles. 2016 S30 (build 10/2016); 22,003 miles. 363 GIDs, Ahr 82.34, Hx; 101.21% kwh 28.1 QCs 190, L2's 213
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

DanCar
Posts: 909
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 12:00 am
Delivery Date: 10 Mar 2013
Location: SF Bay area, 94043

Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Sun Aug 13, 2017 9:33 pm

dgpcolorado wrote:Will there ever be a pollution tax on ICEVs? ...
I think you will find that government reps will be interested in this tax once there are viable alternatives. Likely when 50% or greater of new cars are EVs.

User avatar
abasile
Forum Supporter
Posts: 1861
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2010 10:49 am
Delivery Date: 20 Apr 2011
Location: Arrowbear Lake, CA

Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Mon Aug 14, 2017 8:10 am

dgpcolorado wrote:
drees wrote:Until there is some sort of pollution tax on ICE vehicles (and I'm not only talking CO2), I don't think we should consider removing incentives.
In states with high coal use, that may be counter productive to EV adoption, but that's OK as those grids need to get cleaned up, anyway.
Will there ever be a pollution tax on ICEVs?

I guess I'm tired of the knock on EVs by dino fans that that they are all subsidized; we can argue all we want about how the pollution from ICEVs is subsidized, by not having to be paid for, but it does absolutely no good whatsoever. The current federal tax credit is only for those with high incomes anyway, so one can't even pretend that it is "fair".

To continue to accelerate EV adoption, I'd like to see the incentives remain in place, regardless of what "dino fans" might say. When it comes to vehicle purchase decisions, money talks.

It does appear, though, that in the US the only politically sustainable way to replace ICE vehicles with EVs (short of exhausting all economically extractable fossil fuels) is to make EVs more compelling. This is why I so appreciate that Teslas are not just EVs, they are cool cars!
2011 LEAF at 69K miles, pre-owned 2012 Tesla S 85 at 89K miles
LEAF battery: 9/12 bars and < 49 Ah (-28% vs. new)
Tesla battery: 250+ miles of range (-5% vs. new)

edatoakrun
Posts: 4563
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 9:33 am
Delivery Date: 15 May 2011
Leaf Number: 2184
Location: Shasta County, North California

Re: Official Tesla Model S thread

Wed Aug 16, 2017 7:51 pm

Some publicity, IS bad publicity...

Why this Tesla fan thinks the company is losing its way

AN EARLY ADOPTER OPINES ON ELON MUSK'S FUTURE


AUGUST 16, 2017

Call me an early adopter. I bought the 892nd Tesla roadster to come off the assembly line in 2010. There were problems. The motor had to be replaced three times.

So, what did I do? I bought a second Tesla, and then a third, both top-of-the-line Model S sedans.

We’re talking almost $400,000 worth of the sleek, futuristic automobiles. At first blush, given my experiences with the first model, you might think it odd I would come back for two more. I even encouraged my brother to buy two Tesla sedans.

It is also not out of the question I would buy a fourth Tesla, though under improved circumstances. I love the idea of the car -- but I’ve stopped loving the company.

The fact is this: Through hubris, loss of focus, or simply ignorance of its consumer mission, Tesla has lost its way...

I simply want Tesla to get it right and not to all but abandon early and loyal consumers. If they do, -- and in my experience they have -- this does not bode well for future purchasers, including those who order the lower-priced Model 3 sedans....

http://autoweek.com/article/green-cars/ ... ng-its-way
no condition is permanent

Return to “Other Electric Cars & Plug-In Hybrids”