Tesla Semi Truck

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RegGuheert

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Here is the official website for the Tesla Semi.

Specifications (as provided by Tesla on January 31, 2018):

- Acceleration 0-60 mph with 80k lb: 20 sec
- Speed up a 5% Grade: 60 mph
- Mile Range: 300 or 500 miles
- Powertrain: 4 Independent Motors on Rear Axles
- Energy Consumption: Less than 2 kWh per mile
- Drag Coefficient: 0.36
- 0 to 60 MPH Acceleration Time - Fully Loaded: 20 seconds
- Fuel Savings: $200,000+
- Expected Base Price (300 mile range): $150,000
- Expected Base Price (500 mile range): $180,000
- Base Reservation: $20,000
- Expected Founders Series Price: $200,000
- Founders Series Reservation: $200,000

Tesla is due to reveal their semi truck this month, so I thought this would be a good time to start a thread on the topic.

Electrek seems to have the best coverage on this topic. Here is their landing page for the Tesla Semi.

Electrek: Tesla Semi could be 'the biggest catalyst in trucking in decades' and 70% cheaper to operate, says analyst:
Electrek said:
Jonas then lists a series of “key questions” which he then tries to answer:

- When will the truck go on sale? (we think 2020)
- How much will it cost? (we think $100k if separately leasing batteries)
- What can it do? (we think it could be an all-purpose Class 8 semi-truck rather than a limited application vehicle)
- How cost effective will it be? (we estimate an autonomous-electric truck can be up to 70% cheaper to operate than a regular truck).

The analyst is of the opinion that Tesla Semi will have a range of 200-300 miles – primarily to support regional trucking routes.

Furthermore, he expects Tesla to announce some major trucking partnerships for companies to operate early fleets of the new electric truck.

Edit: Added Tesla webpage link and primary specifications.
 
Tons of trucking companies can use a 200-300 mile FULL POWER (like 500+hp) trucks in a fleet. For ports and rail service, 200 miles is probably too much, most of the time.

Tesla is not going to use battery swapping at the truck depot level, but there will be overnight charging plus a Mega-Fast charger. They will remotely monitor that the trucks are being correctly charged, so that no truck finds itself uncharged in the morning (this is a problem in the fork lift industry). I suspect autonomous plugging in (no way will it be wireless), and possibly autonomous parking.

Maybe, battery swapping will be an option enroute at key junctions. In Southern California, it might be on the 5 freeway between LA and SF, or Barstow or Baker going to Las Vegas. I think the odds of this are very low, but possible.

Mega-Fast chargers in the 750kW to 1.5MW are likely. Battery size needs to be 500kWh minimum.
 
TonyWilliams said:
Maybe, battery swapping will be an option enroute at key junctions. In Southern California, it might be on the 5 freeway between LA and SF, or Barstow or Baker going to Las Vegas. I think the odds of this are very low, but possible.
I expect to see some interesting solutions provided on the trailers, as well. I foresee some trailers carrying batteries to allow for longer-range travel with the batteries being charged during loading and unloading activities. I can also see 10 kW of PV on the roofs of some trailers to reduce the daytime running load and provide charging during daytime stops. Finally, I can see generators on some trailers for extended operations.

While BEV semi tractors are certainly a technical challenge, they also open up a ton of possibilities which never existed before. I can see some possible huge benefits in mountain operations, for instance.
 
Yep, really interesting stuff coming up. I'm hoping for a revealing reveal :)

Tesla applied for an AP exemption to drive trucks from the Gigafactory to their auto assembly plant in Fremont.
I expect to see platoons of Tesla trucks plying the route in the near future and on the major highway inter-states some time later.

Which, incidentally, is why I suspect the analyst's guesses of range are way under-estimated. I think the Tesla magic will be a combination of EV+AP. The US refuses to rehabilitate the train network so this is the next best thing.
 
The unveiling has been pushed back one month to October 26. That article contains a previous quote from Elon Musk about the truck:
Elon Musk said:
It is a heavy duty, long range, semi-truck. So it has the highest weight capability and with long range. So essentially it’s meant to alleviate the heavy duty trucking loads. And this is something which people do not, today, think is possible. They think the truck doesn’t have enough power or it doesn’t have enough range. And then with those with the Tesla semi we want to show that no, an electric truck actually can out-torque any diesel semi and if you had a tug-of-war competition, the Tesla semi what will tug the diesel semi uphill.
 
RegGuheert said:
TonyWilliams said:
Maybe, battery swapping will be an option enroute at key junctions. In Southern California, it might be on the 5 freeway between LA and SF, or Barstow or Baker going to Las Vegas. I think the odds of this are very low, but possible.
I expect to see some interesting solutions provided on the trailers, as well. I foresee some trailers carrying batteries to allow for longer-range travel with the batteries being charged during loading and unloading activities. I can also see 10 kW of PV on the roofs of some trailers to reduce the daytime running load and provide charging during daytime stops. Finally, I can see generators on some trailers for extended operations.

While BEV semi tractors are certainly a technical challenge, they also open up a ton of possibilities which never existed before. I can see some possible huge benefits in mountain operations, for instance.
I think the likelihood of batteries on trailers is minimal, as it will directly reduce the trailer useful load (as opposed to putting them on the semi, where it reduces the usable total weight). In addition, trailers are as simple and stupid as possible, and thus cheap and interchangeable. It's also far easier to provide charging stations for a tractor than it is a trailer at a terminal, as the tractors are self-mobile and can easily be charged in a smaller space away from the dock, which only has a limited number of loading doors. Any trucking company has far fewer tractors than it does trailers, so providing charging spots for just the tractors is much easier. In addition, any high volume operation will normally see each door occupied by more than one trailer during a single shift, so the time available for charging each trailer will typically be limited.

PV on roofs might be useful for reefers, but they'll need to be a lot less expensive. I expect that fuel cells will be a more likely replacement for reefer gensets, which are mounted in a cage on the nose of the trailer or container, and with the latter at least can easily be removed when not needed (carrying non-refrigerated cargo) or swapped out for repair when necessary. In addition, trailers and containers often get washed rarely, so PV will typically be operating well below max efficiency.
 
GRA said:
I think the likelihood of batteries on trailers is minimal, as it will directly reduce the trailer useful load (as opposed to putting them on the semi, where it reduces the usable total weight). In addition, trailers are as simple and stupid as possible, and thus cheap and interchangeable. It's also far easier to provide charging stations for a tractor than it is a trailer at a terminal, as the tractors are self-mobile and can easily be charged in a smaller space away from the dock, which only has a limited number of loading doors. Any trucking company has far fewer tractors than it does trailers, so providing charging spots for just the tractors is much easier. In addition, any high volume operation will normally see each door occupied by more than one trailer during a single shift, so the time available for charging each trailer will typically be limited.
^^^^ These are the types of conclusions that you arrive when you only weigh costs and do not consider cost benefits and the impact on operations.

I will double down on my prediction: Eventually NEARLY ALL semi trailers will contain batteries. Operational considerations will dictate this. Here is my reasoning:

First, some facts:
- Drivers are the single-largest expense for trucking companies. This is the first expense that Tesla intends to eliminate in order to sell expensive trucks.
- Behind drivers, fuel and oil are the second-largest single expense for trucking companies. It will take time to realize, but the movement to electricity-based transportation will offer huge reductions in the amount of electricity needed to move goods. In the medium term, capital expenditures will need to increase to build out the infrastructure enable this savings.
- Semi trucks are expensive. The BEST way to reduce the capital costs of a semi truck is to keep them on the road. That means parking these trucks at charging stations should be avoided whenever possible.
- Semi trailers MUST be parked for loading and unloading. This is the opportune time for charging to occur in the transportation industry.
- Charging stations are inexpensive when compared with the costs of drivers, fuel, trucks, and trailers.
- Many (most?) loads are not weight-limited, but rather are volume-limited, size-limite or simply are not full.

Now, for my predictions:
- The elimination of drivers will allow trucks to remain on the roads for a much higher fraction of the time.
- As the world electrifies transportation, electricity will become very dear, particularly on the road. Electricity costs at the depot will be lower, but will still be high. As such, trucking companies will need to avoid on-road charging whenever possible and will need to generate and store as much of their own electricity as possible. This means photovoltaics on the rooftops of warehouses and trailers. In order to keep trucks on the road, the bulk of the energy storage will need to reside on the trailers.
- High costs of electricity (fuel) will force carriers to move away from friction braking on trailers and toward regenerative braking for the bulk of braking operations. While most of this regeneration can and will be captured by the wheels on the tractor, likely 1/3 to 1/2 (or even more for safety) will need to be captured by the wheels on the trailer. It is conceivable that this regeneration could be delivered DIRECTLY to the tractor, but it would be much more efficient to capture that energy in large batteries on the trailer. This will eliminate the need for a very-high-power connection between the trailer and the tractor.
- Electric brakes will eventually replace air brakes for emergency stopping.
- Trailer batteries will serve two or more of the following valuable functions (depending on the capabilities of the trailer):
1) Capture electricity from the roof-mounted PV collection system.
2) Capture electricity from the trailer wheels during braking.
3) Provide traction power to the trailer wheels during normal operations.
4) Provide the *average* power to the tractor during operations to maintain tractor SOC. This may be on the order of 50 kW or less when stops and regeneration are figured in.
5) Power on-trailer loads such as refrigeration units, lights and emergency electric brakes.

Charging operations for trailers and trucks will be managed by operations. Trailer SOC needs to be made as high as possible during loading operations unless the load will sit in the sun for some time before departing the depot. During unloading, partial charge can be provided if at the depot or at a customer where electricity refueling is practical and has been negotiated as part of the cartage arrangement. If at all possible, truck charging should be done ONLY by the trailer. If off-trailer truck charging is required for certain long-haul operations, then that needs to be done at the depot whenever possible.

Initially, this approach to trailer-based batteries will be used in industries which are volume-limited rather than weigh-limited. But eventually, trailer-based batteries will dominate for all applications since it provides massive cost and operational benefits by keeping the trucks on the road as close to full-time as possible.
GRA said:
PV on roofs might be useful for reefers, but they'll need to be a lot less expensive.
In an electrified transportation industry, PV is no longer just an expense, but rather it is an investment that will return many times its value over time. It will sit (or ride) quietly generating fuel for the organization and increasing the amount of time that the trucks can remain on the road.
GRA said:
I expect that fuel cells will be a more likely replacement for reefer gensets,...
Did you manage to keep a straight face when typing that immediately following the sentence in which you talked about how PV needed to be less expensive? :roll: No, fuel cells will likely never see the light of day in trailer refrigerators due to the extremely high costs of the fuel cell and the extremely high cost of the fuel. There is NO payback for such a bad investment.
GRA said:
...which are mounted in a cage on the nose of the trailer or container, and with the latter at least can easily be removed when not needed (carrying non-refrigerated cargo) or swapped out for repair when necessary.
PV panels will ALWAYS be needed to create fuel for operations, so they will NEVER need to be removed. Future refrigeration units will be much smaller and lighter since they will not need to carry fuel and a genset around with them. Solar loads on the truck will also be reduced by the operation of the PV panels on the roof.
GRA said:
In addition, trailers and containers often get washed rarely, so PV will typically be operating well below max efficiency.
This is a minor operational consideration. Trucking companies need to take whichever approach gives them the highest returns. If that means cleaning PV panels on roofs, it will happen. Likely it will happen automatically each time the trailers enter the depot (or on an as-needed basis based on self-diagnostic based on efficiency considerations). Snow will be an issue in northern climates, but that is also an operational issue which can be handled.
 
RegGuheert said:
GRA said:
I think the likelihood of batteries on trailers is minimal, as it will directly reduce the trailer useful load (as opposed to putting them on the semi, where it reduces the usable total weight). In addition, trailers are as simple and stupid as possible, and thus cheap and interchangeable. It's also far easier to provide charging stations for a tractor than it is a trailer at a terminal, as the tractors are self-mobile and can easily be charged in a smaller space away from the dock, which only has a limited number of loading doors. Any trucking company has far fewer tractors than it does trailers, so providing charging spots for just the tractors is much easier. In addition, any high volume operation will normally see each door occupied by more than one trailer during a single shift, so the time available for charging each trailer will typically be limited.
^^^^ These are the types of conclusions that you arrive when you only weigh costs and do not consider cost benefits and the impact on operations. <snip>
Aaagh! I'd written a long reply to all your points, but MNL timed me out and made me re-sign in, and it was gone when I came back. I just don't have the energy to re-type it all again, at least right now. I will repeat how I summed things up: regardless of the specific changes that will or won't happen, the next decade or so will see the greatest changes in the U.S. trucking industry since deregulation in 1980.
 
GRA said:
Aaagh! I'd written a long reply to all your points, but MNL timed me out and made me re-sign in, and it was gone when I came back.
That stinks!
GRA said:
I will repeat how I summed things up: regardless of the specific changes that will or won't happen, the next decade or so will see the greatest changes in the U.S. trucking industry since deregulation in 1980.
We can agree on that. I expect the transition will take much longer than a decade.
EVDRIVER said:
There sure are many issues with PV on a truck rook, vibration to start.
Yeah, I expect any effort to put stuff on the trailers will have significant growing pains. At the same time, I expect the need to harvest energy while on the road will ultimately win out. Time will tell.
 
RegGuheert said:
GRA said:
Aaagh! I'd written a long reply to all your points, but MNL timed me out and made me re-sign in, and it was gone when I came back.
That stinks!
I probably won't get the time or motivation to rewrite it until the weekend, if then. I'll see how it goes.

RegGuheert said:
GRA said:
I will repeat how I summed things up: regardless of the specific changes that will or won't happen, the next decade or so will see the greatest changes in the U.S. trucking industry since deregulation in 1980.
We can agree on that. I expect the transition will take much longer than a decade
Agreed, but I think the major technical and structural changes will likely appear over the next 10 years. Full transition to replace all the legacy equipment will take much longer, perhaps 25-30 years in this country.
 
Here's a spy photo of the Tesla Semi Truck from the side (the arrow points to the shroud which would normally be on top of the cab):

truckarrow.png


Assuming that's really a Tesla Semi, I have to say it's a bit odd-looking. I'm sure I'll get used to it with time.
 
The design may appear odd but only because we are not accustomed to it. In the end, aesthetics of a commercial transport vehicle aren't likely high on the list for those making purchase decisions based around TCO of operation of the vehicle.
Trucking is one of those industries where Total Cost of Ownership makes a huge difference over many other features. That's why I expect the Tesla Semi to do very well. Fuel and drivers are the most expensive portions of operating a trucking fleet, and electric trucks will cost 1/3 the price in fuel, and when you're doing a caravan, you can cut the driver expense as well, say 1 driver for 3 trucks.
 
Electrek's pre-announcement speculation, largely focused on the economics of the Tesla Semi:
Electrek said:
Electrek’s Take

There’s no doubt that the Tesla truck will be much more expensive and that it will try to compensate with a lower cost of operation.

Class 8 diesel trucks these days cost around $120,000, but in order to get any kind of significant range with a full load, Tesla will need to have a massive battery pack in that truck. I would expect between 400 and 600 kWh, which could easily be worth $100,000 by itself.

By taking that into account, and the fact that Tesla has never built a truck before, I find it hard to believe that they could deliver that truck for less than $250,000 outright.

However there could be ways to get around that sticker shock with a battery renting structure enabled through a battery swap program instead of purchasing the truck with the battery pack, but that’s just a big unknown at this point. I prefer to approach it as a straightforward purchase for the sake of simplicity.

An eye-watering $100,000+ cost difference for any product would be enough to make buyers look somewhere else, but that’s simply not at all the case for class 8 truck buyers because they understand that the cost of operating those trucks dwarf any initial price tag.

They can spend over $70,000 per year in diesel alone to operate a class 8 truck. Without accounting for the salary of the driver, we are talking about roughly $1 per mile of operation (maintenance, insurance, etc.).

That’s what Tesla needs to beat – or crush – if Musk wants to blow the minds of people buying semis.

I expect that Tesla could announce something between $0.40 to $0.60 per mile. For reference, I’d be disappointed if Tesla doesn’t even put forward a number for the cost of operation. I’d be impressed if it’s between $0.50-$0.60, and it will blow my mind if it’s below $0.50, which is apparently the goal.

Now, you could also account for the cost of the driver, which adds roughly $0.35 to $0.40 per mile. There’s always the possibility that Tesla surprises everyone and reveals that the trucks are actually driverless, which would further improve the cost of operation. But I would be surprised if it’s actually the case, at least initially.

There’s evidence that Tesla has requested to test self-driving technology for its trucks in California and Nevada, but I doubt the company plans to launch the trucks without drivers.

If they do, it would be an obvious game changer, but they don’t need to be in order to revolutionize the cost of ground freight transport.

Aside for the difference between the cost of diesel and electricity, there are other ways that Tesla could achieve improvements in the cost of operations.

For example, Tesla has proven to be quite good at aerodynamic performance. The Tesla truck could impress in that regard with a low drag coefficient and perhaps a way to shield the trailer from the wind.

Also, everyone seems to assume that the truck will actually be heavier than the average diesel truck. I am not so quick to say that it will be the case here. While there’s no doubt that batteries are heavy, diesel engines are too and there are likely other areas that can be improved.

The powertrain components alone in a diesel truck can weight between 3,000 and 4,000 lbs – with a typical class 8 truck tractor weighing in at about 16,000 to 17,000 lbs.

It’s not impossible for Tesla to beat that. Every pound that you can save on the tractor is important since it’s one more pound of payload and the overall load weight is limited to 80,000 lbs. Let’s say Tesla can save 1,000 lbs, that’s 1,000 lbs more of cargo per trip and again more money saved for the cost of operation. With several battery packs, Tesla also has the opportunity to divide the weight efficiently onto different axles.
 
Now, you could also account for the cost of the driver, which adds roughly $0.35 to $0.40 per mile. There’s always the possibility that Tesla surprises everyone and reveals that the trucks are actually driverless, which would further improve the cost of operation. But I would be surprised if it’s actually the case, at least initially.

A middle ground would be a truck that will pilot itself on freeways, so the driver can sleep, and then take over again for secondary roads.
 
I'm starting to think that Tesla may be able to deliver a battery-electric semi truck that can be refueled just as quickly, or nearly as quickly, as a diesel truck (although that fully-charged BEV truck may only have about half the range of a fully-fueled diesel). One way this could be accomplished would be to include four separate batteries and drivetrains which could drive the four separate main wheels. We already know that there are multiple motors from the Model 3 in the Tesla Truck (the new name). Since these are synchronous machines, each one requires its own dedicated inverter. So that just leaves the batteries, and having a battery dedicated to each inverter and motor might make sense.

Once you have multiple batteries, you could then recharge them simultaneously using multiple high-power chargers. In good conditions, a 20- or 30-minute charge should be possible. This still means that truck stops and depots will need to have massive amounts of electricity available. I expect that may be a real issue at some truck stops.

This may not be an ideal long-term solution, but keeping refueling times competitive could go a long way toward making BEV trucking competitive.

In any case, it will be interesting to see what grandiose claims Elon Musk makes this evening.
 
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