GRA
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Mon Dec 04, 2017 5:14 pm

NeilBlanchard wrote:We now know the prices: $180,000 for the 500 mile version, and $150,000 for the 300 mile version.

Also, we know the cost of operation - $1.26 / mile vs $1.51 for a typical turbo diesel. So, that is $25,000 savings per 100,000 miles. And the drivetrain is warrantied for 1,000,000 miles.

No, we know what Tesla is claiming will be the cost of operation given certain conditions, and with absolutely no operational experience to back it up.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

lorenfb
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Mon Dec 04, 2017 5:34 pm

NeilBlanchard wrote:We now know the prices: $180,000 for the 500 mile version, and $150,000 for the 300 mile version.

Also, we know the cost of operation - $1.26 / mile vs $1.51 for a typical turbo diesel. So, that is $25,000 savings per 100,000 miles. And the drivetrain is warrantied for 1,000,000 miles.


So, the market for an EV semi is a "natural" today for Tesla, why even consider production of the M3? There's no potential
competition, i.e. no potential competitor is aware of the cost savings yet, right? Tesla needs to just educate the trucking industry now,
and the profits will start "rolling-in" for Tesla. Tesla is so technically astute that no other truck manufacturer even thought to do a
comparative economic analysis of an EV semi vs a diesel semi. The issues of a charging infrastructure, range, charging times, etc.,
are all incidental to the cost saving per 100K miles, and really of secondary importance, right? If only the diesel truck manufacturers
had done a Google search and found this thread, they would not be under a threat of extinction now from the Tesla semi.
Leaf SL MY 9/13: 66K miles, 50 Ahrs, 5.2 miles/kWh (average), Hx=70, SOH=78, L2 charges to 100% > 1000, max battery temp < 95F (35C), min discharge point > 20 Ahrs

SageBrush
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Location: Colorado

Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Mon Dec 04, 2017 6:02 pm

Not really.
It is more a case of diesel truck manufacturers being intellectually incapable of thinking the way Tesla does. I'm not saying they are stupid, but they are handicapped by their own spheres of expertise.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
3/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

edatoakrun
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Mon Dec 04, 2017 6:23 pm

NeilBlanchard wrote:We now know the prices: $180,000 for the 500 mile version, and $150,000 for the 300 mile version.

Also, we know the cost of operation - $1.26 / mile vs $1.51 for a typical turbo diesel...

Two comically implausible assertions.

Does anyone actually believe that TSLA Class 8 BEV trucks requiring ~1 MWh battery packs, will be profitable when sold for only ~twice the price of the ~100 kWh (already money-losing) TSLA passenger vehicles?

Operating cost claims are even sillier, based as they are on TSLA delivering a charging network and electricity for ~seven-cents-per kWh, that will likely cost it close to $1 a kWh to deliver.

Is Tesla's Mega Charging Network Economically Viable?

...Construction of a network of mega-chargers will require a huge outlay of capital, and at 7 cents per kWh there is no chance of any return on that capital, except by inflating the initial cost of the trucks. Allowing for the time value of money, and for the fact that charging stations cannot be precisely located to serve the optimum number of trucks, it is likely that Tesla would have to include at least $100,000 in the cost of a truck just to cover the capital cost of the mega-chargers...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/412928 ... lly-viable
no condition is permanent

hyperionmark
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:34 am

Can you please show us a source that shows that the Model S or X are unprofitable?

GRA
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:07 pm

Via GCR:
Tesla Semi, Roadster battery claims prove puzzling: beyond current knowledge?
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1114154_tesla-semi-roadster-battery-claims-prove-puzzling-beyond-current-knowledge

Since Tesla’s reveal of its new Semi and Roadster models, many technical analysts have been left scratching their collective heads. How can Tesla promise performance metrics far exceeding what’s currently physically and economically possible? According to one analyst, it may not be a matter of what batteries can do now, but what they can do tomorrow.

Bloomberg compiled a list of four seemingly impossible claims made by Musk during the reveal of the Semi and Roadster. Those claims include the Semi’s 500-mile range when hauling 80,000 pounds, the Semi’s purported 30-minute charge time for 400 miles of range, Tesla’s guaranteed charging rate of 7 cents per kilowatt-hour for Semi customers, and the Roadster’s 620-mile range. Bloomberg then attempted to reconcile each claim with reality.

For the Semi’s claimed 500-mile range, Bloomberg estimates the necessary 800 kilowatt-hour battery pack would weigh over 10,000 pounds and cost more than $100,000. That last figure is important as Tesla has priced the truck at $180,000. The cost of the battery leaves Tesla with $80,000 for building the rest of the truck. To put that in perspective, a typical Class 8 truck costs between $100,000 and $125,000.

However, Bloomberg believes Musk is banking on a significant reduction in the price of batteries before the Semi begins duty for customers in early 2020. “By the time Tesla gets large orders, batteries should cost considerably less,” says the Bloomberg article. . . .

Via IEVS:
Tesla Semi To Deliver Budweiser As Anheuser-Busch Places 40-Unit Order
https://insideevs.com/tesla-semi-budweiser-anheuser-busch-places-40-unit-order/
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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RegGuheert
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Sat Dec 09, 2017 3:07 am

GRA wrote:Via GCR:
Tesla Semi, Roadster battery claims prove puzzling: beyond current knowledge?
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1114154_tesla-semi-roadster-battery-claims-prove-puzzling-beyond-current-knowledge

Since Tesla’s reveal of its new Semi and Roadster models, many technical analysts have been left scratching their collective heads. How can Tesla promise performance metrics far exceeding what’s currently physically and economically possible? According to one analyst, it may not be a matter of what batteries can do now, but what they can do tomorrow.

Bloomberg compiled a list of four seemingly impossible claims made by Musk during the reveal of the Semi and Roadster. Those claims include the Semi’s 500-mile range when hauling 80,000 pounds, the Semi’s purported 30-minute charge time for 400 miles of range, Tesla’s guaranteed charging rate of 7 cents per kilowatt-hour for Semi customers, and the Roadster’s 620-mile range. Bloomberg then attempted to reconcile each claim with reality.

For the Semi’s claimed 500-mile range, Bloomberg estimates the necessary 800 kilowatt-hour battery pack would weigh over 10,000 pounds and cost more than $100,000. That last figure is important as Tesla has priced the truck at $180,000. The cost of the battery leaves Tesla with $80,000 for building the rest of the truck. To put that in perspective, a typical Class 8 truck costs between $100,000 and $125,000.

However, Bloomberg believes Musk is banking on a significant reduction in the price of batteries before the Semi begins duty for customers in early 2020. “By the time Tesla gets large orders, batteries should cost considerably less,” says the Bloomberg article. . . .
Musk's approach with the Tesla Semi matches almost precisely the approach I see being used in the airliner industry. Because Boeing and Airbus expect to manufacture their products for decades into the future, they do NOT specify or price their products based on what they are capable of building today. Rather, they KNOW that they cannot approach either the specifications promised (primarily weight and fuel burn) or the cost on the first articles. Instead, they set the price at a level at which they believe they can eventually reduce the manufacturing price below and they offer steep discounts to the initial customers to incentivize them the take the early units which certainly will be sub-par in terms of weight and build quality.

But there are two big differences with the Tesla Semi:
1) The rate at which the technology is improving is much more rapid with the Tesla Semi,
and 2) Telsa is NOT a huge multi-national company sitting on lots of cash to spend on huge development projects.

Boeing and Airbus were badly hurt with their 787 and A380 products, respectively. It seems extremely unlikely that Boeing can every recover the $32B development cost of the 787 no matter how many they build and Airbus will, at best, achieve break-even on the Airbus A380 program. (To Airbus' credit, they seem to have greatly improved their results on the A350. The jury is still out with Boeing on the 779 development program.) But these companies appear to be capable to weather such costly overruns.

It will be interesting to see how Tesla manages to fund such a massive project. No doubt they will experience significant technical and manufacturing challenges in the Tesla Semi development, just like Boeing and Airbus did.
GRA wrote:Via IEVS:
Tesla Semi To Deliver Budweiser As Anheuser-Busch Places 40-Unit Order
https://insideevs.com/tesla-semi-budweiser-anheuser-busch-places-40-unit-order/
And Sysco ordered another 50 the same day. That brings the number of trucks ordered so far to around 300.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K miles: Apr 14, 2013, 20K miles (55.7Ah): Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah): Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah): Feb 8, 2017, 50K miles (47.2Ah): Dec 7, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

GRA
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Sat Dec 09, 2017 2:57 pm

RegGuheert wrote:Musk's approach with the Tesla Semi matches almost precisely the approach I see being used in the airliner industry. Because Boeing and Airbus expect to manufacture their products for decades into the future, they do NOT specify or price their products based on what they are capable of building today. Rather, they KNOW that they cannot approach either the specifications promised (primarily weight and fuel burn) or the cost on the first articles. Instead, they set the price at a level at which they believe they can eventually reduce the manufacturing price below and they offer steep discounts to the initial customers to incentivize them the take the early units which certainly will be sub-par in terms of weight and build quality.

The question is will trucking companies require similar guarantees as airlines have, i.e. will Tesla have to pay performance penalties to the trucking companies in the same way that a/c manufacturers have had to pay the airlines when an a/c is delivered late or fails to meet their performance guarantees?
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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TonyWilliams
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:30 am

GRA wrote:
RegGuheert wrote:Musk's approach with the Tesla Semi matches almost precisely the approach I see being used in the airliner industry. Because Boeing and Airbus expect to manufacture their products for decades into the future, they do NOT specify or price their products based on what they are capable of building today. Rather, they KNOW that they cannot approach either the specifications promised (primarily weight and fuel burn) or the cost on the first articles. Instead, they set the price at a level at which they believe they can eventually reduce the manufacturing price below and they offer steep discounts to the initial customers to incentivize them the take the early units which certainly will be sub-par in terms of weight and build quality.

The question is will trucking companies require similar guarantees as airlines have, i.e. will Tesla have to pay performance penalties to the trucking companies in the same way that a/c manufacturers have had to pay the airlines when an a/c is delivered late or fails to meet their performance guarantees?


Since Tesla is guaranteeing 7 cents per kWh, and a million miles against breakdown, some of those performance guarantees are already there.

Engery consumption under load might be another key metric.

GRA
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Mon Dec 11, 2017 7:46 pm

TonyWilliams wrote:
GRA wrote:
RegGuheert wrote:Musk's approach with the Tesla Semi matches almost precisely the approach I see being used in the airliner industry. Because Boeing and Airbus expect to manufacture their products for decades into the future, they do NOT specify or price their products based on what they are capable of building today. Rather, they KNOW that they cannot approach either the specifications promised (primarily weight and fuel burn) or the cost on the first articles. Instead, they set the price at a level at which they believe they can eventually reduce the manufacturing price below and they offer steep discounts to the initial customers to incentivize them the take the early units which certainly will be sub-par in terms of weight and build quality.

The question is will trucking companies require similar guarantees as airlines have, i.e. will Tesla have to pay performance penalties to the trucking companies in the same way that a/c manufacturers have had to pay the airlines when an a/c is delivered late or fails to meet their performance guarantees?


Since Tesla is guaranteeing 7 cents per kWh, and a million miles against breakdown, some of those performance guarantees are already there.

Engery consumption under load might be another key metric.

Has there been any evidence that Tesla is in fact guaranteeing (legally enforceable) anything at this point, as opposed to just making claims? None of the reservations are hard at this time, so it would seem unlikely that they would (or would need to) provide guarantees now, especially when AFAWK they haven't actually built any trucks. Once it's time for companies to put real money down it will be a different matter.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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