GRA
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:57 pm

Via IEVS:
PepsiCo Orders 100 Tesla Semis
https://insideevs.com/pepsico-orders-100-tesla-semis/

. . . “PepsiCo intends to deploy Tesla Semis for shipments of snack foods and beverages between manufacturing and distribution facilities and direct to retailers within the 500-mile (800-km) range promised by Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk.”

“PepsiCo is analyzing what routes are best for its Tesla trucks in North America but sees a wide range of uses for lighter loads like snacks or shorter shipments of heavier beverages, O‘Connell said.”
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

edatoakrun
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Sat Dec 16, 2017 1:02 pm

Calculator at the link that allows you to input variable to find total cost, pack size and weight for a given range BESemi.

Default values he uses (50 mph, 20 C) are unrealistic in terms of USA temperature and speed, IMO.

Put in the 60 mph speed Musk used at the intro (or realistically higher...) and a low temperature, and the numbers begin to look bleak.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJ8Cf0vWmxE

https://battery.real.engineering/

Remember that some other energy losses not modeled (headwinds, precipitation, speed variations, etc) will reduce a Semi's range, just as for passenger vehicles.
no condition is permanent

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RegGuheert
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Sat Dec 16, 2017 1:45 pm

edatoakrun wrote:Calculator at the link that allows you to input variable to find total cost, pack size and weight for a given range BESemi.
...
https://battery.real.engineering/
Interesting video and link. Thanks!
edatoakrun wrote:Remember that some other energy losses not modeled (headwinds, precipitation, speed variations, etc) will reduce a Semi's range, just as for passenger vehicles.
Remember that when the Boeing 737 was introduced into the market, its range was limited in all the same ways. The 737 offered jet transportation of fewer passengers over a MUCH shorter range than other jet aircraft on the market, meaning it had very limited application at the time. In return, the 737 offered much lower per-trip and per-mile costs. It also offered a lower purchase price.

Fifty years later the 737 family and its main competitor, the Airbus A320 family, continue to replace those larger jets which continue to offer longer range and more payload. The [i]useable[i] range of the the latest Boeing 737 is more than 3X that of the original and the payload is also much higher.

The main difference between the Boeing 737 in 1967 and the Tesla Semi Truck in 2019 is that the initial cost of the Tesla vehicle is higher than that of the competition. But Tesla Semi has an ace in the hole which all the trucking companies (except the small independent ones) want: the potential to eliminate the driver. When (not if) that happens, the economics will be so far in Tesla's favor that diesel trucks' days will be numbered by how quickly quality autonomous electric trucks can be produced and how quickly infrastructure can be developed.

As I mentioned in the 737 thread, I see no reason why BEVs will not take a similar path as the Boeing 737. Note that the 737 nearly didn't make it into the market, but Boeing managed to make it happen. Boeing literally bet the farm a couple times back in the 1950s and 60s, most notably with the 707 and the 747 programs. They won big on both of those bets. Can Tesla manage to do the same? Only time will tell.
RegGuheert
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LTLFTcomposite
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Sat Dec 16, 2017 2:37 pm

If the trucks have issues which you know they will it's no big deal for a Walmart or PepsiCo. Betting big on unproven technology could be death for an independent operator or small firm.
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GRA
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Tue Dec 19, 2017 6:38 pm

Via GCC:
UPS pre-orders 125 Tesla electric Semis
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/12/20171219-upos.html
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

lorenfb
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:49 am

A Sense of Reality?

The one thing Tesla got right was to focus on short distance trucks. The drawback is this is a small segment of the overall truck market, and they are not alone in planning to use EVs for this segment. Competition is going to be strong. Batteries at this time are not conducive to long trips. To get the comparable amount of range that current diesel semis get the weight and size of the battery packs would be too large and heavy to be feasible or competitive. That is why Nikola Motors switched directions from batteries to hydrogen fuel cells to power their long and short range trucks.


https://seekingalpha.com/article/4138369-trucks-potential-headwind-tesla?auth_param=1adagi:1d61ijp:c30216fd9a8c22bf95bae5c5e3a01b08&uprof=44&dr=1
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AndyH
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:48 pm

lorenfb wrote:A Sense of Reality?

The one thing Tesla got right was to focus on short distance trucks. The drawback is this is a small segment of the overall truck market, and they are not alone in planning to use EVs for this segment. Competition is going to be strong. Batteries at this time are not conducive to long trips. To get the comparable amount of range that current diesel semis get the weight and size of the battery packs would be too large and heavy to be feasible or competitive. That is why Nikola Motors switched directions from batteries to hydrogen fuel cells to power their long and short range trucks.


[url]<snip>[/url]

Reality from Seeking Alpha? Not likely.

Ed - 60 MPH isn't a realistic average speed for this sort of guestimating. Starts/stops etc. do dramatic things to speed averages. Taking 2 hour drive on the interstate at 70 mph becomes a 40 or so MPH average once getting to and from the interstate are taken into account.
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lorenfb
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:52 pm

AndyH wrote:
lorenfb wrote:A Sense of Reality?

The one thing Tesla got right was to focus on short distance trucks. The drawback is this is a small segment of the overall truck market, and they are not alone in planning to use EVs for this segment. Competition is going to be strong. Batteries at this time are not conducive to long trips. To get the comparable amount of range that current diesel semis get the weight and size of the battery packs would be too large and heavy to be feasible or competitive. That is why Nikola Motors switched directions from batteries to hydrogen fuel cells to power their long and short range trucks.


Reality from Seeking Alpha? Not likely.


Can't refute anything, so just dismiss it, right? O.K., back to cranking-up your PC clock speed to possibly mine the next blockchain.
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AndyH
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:51 pm

lorenfb wrote:
AndyH wrote:
lorenfb wrote:A Sense of Reality?



Reality from Seeking Alpha? Not likely.


Can't refute anything, so just dismiss it, right? O.K., back to cranking-up your PC clock speed to possibly mine the next blockchain.

You know your comment made no sense, right? One doesn't crank up their PC clock speed to mine blocks on any blockchain - it's more about the random number generator. One also doesn't find any useful information about EVs from Seeking Alpha. One doesn't waste time refuting cargo on a garbage truck. Batteries are just fine for long trips as long as one can charge them - that's how my smart can travel beyond it's max range and how Teslas can travel coast to coast. We've had EVs since the 1800s - this isn't new. The article's crap and you're still a troll best left on ignore.
"The stupid become extinct."-Bill Mollison
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hyperionmark
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:28 pm

:) I agree. However, he is exercising futility by trying to short the company. Hence the constant disparaging comments and articles about Tesla.

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