GRA
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Re: Nikola Hydrogen Semi Truck

Mon Jan 29, 2018 7:10 pm

RegGuheert wrote:Here's the link to the hydrogen entry in this market: Nikola.

I suppose this company is for those investors and customer who are not good at math. They offer to lease a truck for $5000.00/month ALL-IN. Truck, fuel, maintenance, everything. And you get a new truck every seven years. That's to replace a diesel truck that consumes $10,000/month just in fuel.

Since I have calculated the COST of producing H2 fuel from hydrolysis to be about $10/kg, we'll use that round number as a starting point for this calculation. Nikola expects each truck to consume 50 to 75 kg of H2 each day. So how much does it COST Nikola to provide fuel for each truck for one month? 75 kg/day * 10 $/kg * 30 days/month = $22,500.00/month.

:lol: :lol: :lol: I'm sorry, but even if you manage to find that I'm off by a factor of FOUR the fuel will STILL cost more than they are taking in for the lease of the truck. If I am off by a factor of EIGHT, then that leaves $2200 per month to pay for building a new truck every seven years, pay for maintenance and provide profits to investors. Does anyone REALLY think that H2 fuel can be made from water for less than the price of diesel fuel?

It's a pretty website, but I have to conclude that it is an elaborate joke.

Reg, while I realize you started this thread and thus can put anything you want in it, wouldn't the two preceding posts be more appropriate in the "AFV Truck/Commercial Vehicle and (non-BEV) Bus thread," which I started per your request so as not to clutter up the BEV Bus thread with non-BEV bus related posts? Both the Thor and Nikola have been covered in that topic already, so unless/until we start dedicated threads for each of them (as you did here for the Tesla Semi), that seems to be the most appropriate gathering place for such posts.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Mon Jan 29, 2018 8:21 pm

Back on topic, via IEVS:
Exploring The “Hows” And “Cans” Of The Tesla Semi – Part 1
https://insideevs.com/exclusive-part-1-exploring-hows-cans-tesla-semi/

The Tesla Semi. Opinions are many but facts (beyond those stated at the November reveal) are few. Skepticism reigns. Among the new facts, we finally have some anecdotal test evidence stating:

    “XPO management confirmed that in their testing, the features and capabilities of the truck mostly lived up to Tesla’s claims at the launch event, including the performance vs. diesel trucks up a 5% grade (55 mph vs 45 mph), recharging time, safety/anti jackknifing features and payload (similar to a typical diesel truck, as confirmed by Tesla).”However, Jonas (Adam Jonas w/ Morgan-Stanley) noted that XPO wasn’t able to confirm the most critical figure of all: the Semi’s 500-mile range.”

Even with this test evidence partially confirming that the semi “mostly lives up” to claims, skeptics may ask HOW Tesla can:

provide such powerful performance
AND carry a “full” Class 8 payload AND be under the 80,000 lb tractor-trailer weight limit
AND make 500-mile range
AND sell it for about $180,000?

This article is the first of a four-part series to explore these “Hows” and “Cans” of the Tesla semi. . . .

Separately, at a quarterly conference call, Elon said the semi uses many Model 3 parts in the propulsion system, including the four driver-axle motors. We assume long-range Model 3 motors with 271 HP & 307 ft-lbs torque each (motor performance per Motor Trends instrumented test results).

Additional analytical nugget: Kman Auto showed us, in a video from the reveal, the nameplates of the drive unit reduction gearboxes, revealing that the front set of drive units are geared 23:1 (for low-speed acceleration) and the rears at 15:1 (for high-speed efficiency). When all four are operating, these drivers “blend” to create an effective 19:1 gear ratio for torque/acceleration calculations. . . .

Conclusions:

Performance. Confirmed. Both XPO Logistic’s tests and our calculations demonstrate the Tesla Semi CAN deliver Tesla’s claimed acceleration and climbing performance with the specified propulsion system. The skeptics should strike that item off their list. The performance simply reflects the true power of electric propulsion systems.

Payload capacity. “Qualified” confirmed. XPO said (the semi) “mostly lived up to Tesla’s claims… and payload (similar to a typical diesel truck, as confirmed by Tesla).” “Mostly” and “similar to a typical” don’t count as firm confirmations in our book. This requires some additional analysis.

Range. “Qualified” confirmed. Our calculations jibe with other analysts’ estimates for battery size and range. But XPO did not mention anything about range in their statement. This is disturbing as EV range is THE key metric most trucking firms would test first. This leaves us speculating about the tested-prototype tractor’s installed battery pack size and tractor weight – was the prototype they tested outfitted with a full-500-mile-range battery or the smaller 300-mile battery? If the smaller battery, can Tesla actually build a 500-mile range semi-tractor weighing less than 20,000 lb. that hauls a “standard” 45,500 lb payload + 15,000 lb trailer? Is Tesla using Model 3 battery technology for the pack or will it require something new that Tesla has not yet revealed?

To help resolve these questions on tractor weight and range – In Part 2, George will deep-dive into Tesla’s Model S/Model 3 battery pack construction and known data about the semi’s pack to find clues of the Semi’s pack architecture and resulting weight and volume.

I wonder if the 55 vs. 45 mph 5% grade noted in the article is a typo or not, as Tesla claimed 65 mph/5% grade at the intro, and that's repeated in a chart as well as "confirmed" by a model. That is the most useful performance benefit for the Tesla over a diesel, so it's fairly important which is correct.

Meanwhile, an IEVS article indicates the level of skepticism and need for testing:
Tesla Semi Orders Continue To Climb Despite Press Skepticism
https://insideevs.com/tesla-semi-orders-climb-despite-press-skepticism/

. . . UPS said it provided Tesla with data about its truck routes in order to evaluate how the vehicle will perform in its fleet. “As with any introductory technology for our fleet, we want to make sure it’s in a position to succeed,” UPS exec Scott Phillippi told Reuters, adding that most of the initial 125 trucks would be deployed in the US and that Tesla will provide consultation and support on charging infrastructure. “We have high expectations and are very optimistic that this will be a good product and it will have firm support from Tesla to make it work. . . .”

The Tesla Semi isn’t for everyone. “We met with Tesla and at this time we do not see a fit with their product and our fleet,” said Dave Bates, Senior VP of Old Dominion Freight Line, the fourth-largest carrier in the US. . . .
Last edited by GRA on Tue Jan 30, 2018 5:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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TonyWilliams
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Mon Jan 29, 2018 9:40 pm

AndyH wrote:
GRA wrote: - it should be used for distribution and delivery, for which it is well suited.

One might have thought the day cab gave that away, but whatever. ;)

I take a break for a couple of years and find MNL exactly how I left it. Impressive! :lol:


AndyH is back?

Can’t wait to hear you latest on the hydrogen takeover, and how ill suited EVs are.

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RegGuheert
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:42 am

GRA wrote:
Exploring The “Hows” And “Cans” Of The Tesla Semi – Part 1
https://insideevs.com/exclusive-part-1-exploring-hows-cans-tesla-semi/

...
Additional analytical nugget: Kman Auto showed us, in a video from the reveal, the nameplates of the drive unit reduction gearboxes, revealing that the front set of drive units are geared 23:1 (for low-speed acceleration) and the rears at 15:1 (for high-speed efficiency). When all four are operating, these drivers “blend” to create an effective 19:1 gear ratio for torque/acceleration calculations. . . .
O.K. That is a very clever idea! It goes to show the type of innovation that arises when you are actively working on a problem.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K mi. on 041413; 20K mi. (55.7Ah) on 080714; 30K mi. (52.0Ah) on 123015; 40K mi. (49.8Ah) on 020817; 50K mi. (47.2Ah) on 120717; 60K mi. (43.66Ah) on 091918.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

GRA
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Tue Jan 30, 2018 6:58 pm

Via IEVS, Part 2:
Tesla Semi Truck Battery Probably Lighter Than You Think – Part 2
https://insideevs.com/tesla-semi-truck-battery-lighter/
George Bower is comparing it to the P100D pack, but ISTM he should be using the densities of the Model 3's cells. Per Tesla, the Model 3 pack's specific energy is 150Wh/kg, which gives about 14,700 lb. for a 1MWh pack (vs. George's calcs of 9,549 lb. for 900 kWh), not counting the reductions for voltage and area scaling George describes in the article.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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RegGuheert
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Tue Jan 30, 2018 8:42 pm

GRA wrote:Via IEVS, Part 2:
Tesla Semi Truck Battery Probably Lighter Than You Think – Part 2
https://insideevs.com/tesla-semi-truck-battery-lighter/George Bower is comparing it to the P100D pack, but ISTM he should be using the densities of the Model 3's cells. Per Tesla, the Model 3 pack's specific energy is 150Wh/kg, which gives about 14,700 lb. for a 1MWh pack (vs. George's calcs of 9,549 lb. for 900 kWh), not counting the reductions for voltage and area scaling George describes in the article.
Tesla will certainly achieve a pack density of more than the 150 Wh/kg in the truck, but I doubt that they will exceed 200 Wh/kg like George Bower calculates because of the 30-minute charging time requirements. I'll put my bet on 180 Wh/kg, which comes to 12,222 lbs. for a 1 MWh pack.

IMO what COULD boost the truck above 200 Wh/kg would be a breakthrough in NMC electrolyte by Dr. Dahn that would allow the 2170 cells to be operated at a higher voltage. I think that improvement could come at any time, and perhaps could happen in small steps allowing a gradual increase in maximum voltage. Tesla should be planning for that eventuality. They will either need to increase the voltage range of their charging and discharging electronics to accommodate the higher cell voltages OR they will need to plan to reconfigure their cell packing. What they will NOT want to do in the truck is reduce the total number of cells, since they will need to keep adding capacity until they can get the range up to at least 800 miles.
RegGuheert
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10K mi. on 041413; 20K mi. (55.7Ah) on 080714; 30K mi. (52.0Ah) on 123015; 40K mi. (49.8Ah) on 020817; 50K mi. (47.2Ah) on 120717; 60K mi. (43.66Ah) on 091918.
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Wed Jan 31, 2018 5:29 am

Nikola claims that a standard diesel truck weighs 19,000 to 23,000 lbs. while they will come in at 18,000 lbs. to 21,000, thus saving weight. Looking around, it appears their data may be a bit out-of-date. Some modern trucks are coming in at 17,000 lbs, full, so Nikola may actually be coming in at par or perhaps even a bit heavy.

Since I doubt Tesla can build the cab-sans-battery to weigh only 5000 lbs., they will either come in a bit heavy or will need to limit their maximum battery capacity to 900 kWh or lower for this first go-around.

Weight is the one thing Tesla is not talking about on their Semi website, so I will assume that is the toughest spec.

Of course the range will improve as the batteries improve.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K mi. on 041413; 20K mi. (55.7Ah) on 080714; 30K mi. (52.0Ah) on 123015; 40K mi. (49.8Ah) on 020817; 50K mi. (47.2Ah) on 120717; 60K mi. (43.66Ah) on 091918.
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Wed Jan 31, 2018 6:47 am

Let's look at range and fuel economy for a conventional truck compared with the Tesla Semi.

The DOE requires new trucks to achieve at least 7.2 MPG on level ground while some companies have demonstrated economy as high as 9.9 MPG with a 65,000-lb. load. If we go with the 7.2 MPG number and put diesel fuel at $3.00/gallon, we get a per-mile fuel cost of about $0.42/mile. Tesla has [url]promised truck fuel for $0.07/kWh and efficiency better than 2 kWh/mile[/url]. That comes to about $0.12/mile, or a savings of $0.30/mile! (I will note here that Elon Musk said "wholesale price" in his presentation, so I'm not exactly sure what that means.)

That's a huge savings in fuel costs.

When it comes to autonomy, diesel trucks currently have the clear advantage. At 7.2 MPG with a 325-gallon fuel tank (300 gallons useable), you have a usable range of over 2000 miles. Telsa comes in at 500 miles or only 1/4 that number--probably less in cold or windy conditions. While a 2000-mile autonomy is not necessarily more valuable, than, say, 1000 miles, 500 miles is on the low end of what is needed for some routes. According to Elon Musk, over 80% of all truck routes in the U.S. are less than 250 miles.

You can bet that trucking companies will figure out clever ways to use electric trucks if they are saving $0.30/mile. For instance, you should expect trucking companies to enable charging whenever the truck is loading or unloading. In some cases, that will be possible without unhitching the vehicle from the trailer. The key will be to negotiate low electricity rates and avoid demand and high TOU charges.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K mi. on 041413; 20K mi. (55.7Ah) on 080714; 30K mi. (52.0Ah) on 123015; 40K mi. (49.8Ah) on 020817; 50K mi. (47.2Ah) on 120717; 60K mi. (43.66Ah) on 091918.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

AndyH
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Thu Feb 01, 2018 5:54 pm

GRA wrote:
AndyH wrote:
GRA wrote:And a truck that has to meet a schedule and keep within his/her service hours isn't going to be able to adjust their speed to the extent you did.

I'm intrigued. How much did I adjust my speed, and how do you think your understanding of how I drive can be applied to the Tesla truck? :?

You have stated that you slowed down, well below speeds that line haul trucks typically travel at.

This is incorrect. I stated that I had to consider temperature, HVAC use, and terrain when planning my trips - but only for those that are to or beyond max range - not to the EPA range. This is important! (This is one of the reasons I wish you had at least a year of EVing under your belt because it's difficult to communicate without a common core of experience.)

My last EV was a city car with 68 miles of EPA range. As I reported in the Outl@nder PHEV thread, I find the new EPA profile to be pessimistic even with a fair amount of jack-rabbit starts and plenty of AC running. In my smart, I don't have to think to achieve the EPA range, though it is possible to get close to it. In routine driving, I found it easy to exceed the EPA range by 20% by paying attention, and by more than 40% by hypermiling. I can't say for sure if any of this will carry over to an EV class 8 tractor, but at the very least I expect the EPA range to be as conservative for this category as I've found it to be for diesel cars, an EV, and now a PHEV.

You asked at some point about test cycles pertinent to Class 8 tractors. One of the organizations certified to perform fuel, lube, and economy testing is SouthWest Research Institute here in San Antonio. (Just in case you want to drill-down into SAE test protocols.) The second link is for a couple of the more stringent tests - those outlined by CARB.

https://www.swri.org/heavy-duty-truck-fuel-economy-testing-evaluations
https://www.dieselnet.com/standards/cycles/hhddt.php

Note that the test used to evaluate 'high speed cruise' has a max speed of 59.3 MPH and an average of 39.9.

Image

The ability to climb a hill is a good marketing metric, but it's not that useful in the real world when one is concerned with range/economy. I say this because when I was advising tractor operators, from owner-operators to small fleet operators (10-25 tractors) it was during the period of high diesel prices before our current artificial low. Both categories of operators adapted their operation style to save fuel money. Owner-operators acted the way we EVers act - we slowed down a bit, understanding that drag increases with the square of speed. Fleet operators don't mash the 'go pedal' on their own. If they couldn't entice drivers with a cost share for saved fuel (a nice carrot), they turned the governor down on the tractors until the average speed slowed down enough to bring in the desired fuel savings. Lots of words there - let's shrink them a bit: Class 8 operators already actively manage fuel economy and range using the same techniques used by EVers. The way they fuel will change, and the range will change, but the rest will not.

RegGuheert wrote:... According to Elon Musk, over 80% of all truck routes in the U.S. are less than 250 miles.

You can bet that trucking companies will figure out clever ways to use electric trucks if they are saving $0.30/mile.

I agree completely. Currently available EVs will only provide about 90% of consumer's needs. I'm thinking the HD EV tractors will be going after the middle of the bell curve first as they should.

One example is moving mail. When I was a kid, my dad drove mail at night after a full shift at GM. He would drive into the city and pick up a USPS tractor. He'd drive to the post office and grab a trailer. Drive to Detroit and swap trailers. Drive to Lansing, and swap trailers. Return to the point of origin to drop a trailer and return the tractor. The total trip was less than 300 miles.

Dept of Transportation data seems to suggest that someone at Tesl@ might have done their homework.
https://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/freight_analysis/nat_freight_stats/docs/13factsfigures/pdfs/fff2013_highres.pdf

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RegGuheert
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Thu Feb 01, 2018 6:34 pm

RegGuheert wrote:Since I doubt Tesla can build the cab-sans-battery to weigh only 5000 lbs., they will either come in a bit heavy or will need to limit their maximum battery capacity to 900 kWh or lower for this first go-around.
InsideEVs did a nice job going through the weights and figuring out how the Tesla Semi comes out. Bottom line: It's gonna be a bit heavy, especially if it is up against the 17,000-lb. tractors I mentioned in the previous post. As a result, it won't be able to take the heaviest loads, but it still should offer real per-mile savings hauling what it can.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K mi. on 041413; 20K mi. (55.7Ah) on 080714; 30K mi. (52.0Ah) on 123015; 40K mi. (49.8Ah) on 020817; 50K mi. (47.2Ah) on 120717; 60K mi. (43.66Ah) on 091918.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

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