Reddy
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Thu Nov 16, 2017 4:23 pm

I've not been too interested in this topic. I think Elon is blowing smoke, but it did get me thinking. What would "blow my mind"? Well, if the semi reveal is a platoon of trucks, and I'm talking at least five, better would be ten, that all follow each other, with no driver in the train (except maybe in the head truck). The trucks stop, and each one opens up, and a bunch of driverless Model 3's all drop out of the back. Then Elon announces that CA & NV have both approved Tesla's driverless semi trains for the transport of Model 3's. Now, that would be something.
Reddy
2011 SL; 9 bar, 45.80 AHr; 45,000 mi; rcv'd Aug 18, 2011
Long: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.p ... al#p226115"
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lorenfb
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Thu Nov 16, 2017 9:34 pm

With Just a 'small' production goal of 100K/per year initially, maybe time to take deposits?

Musk: The semi will go from 0-60 in 5 seconds. By itself or with a trailer.


Great, just what the trucking industry needs!

GRA
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Sat Nov 18, 2017 5:19 pm

lorenfb wrote:With Just a 'small' production goal of 100K/per year initially, maybe time to take deposits?

Musk: The semi will go from 0-60 in 5 seconds. By itself or with a trailer.


Great, just what the trucking industry needs!

More commercially useful will be the ability to maintain 65 mph on grades, e.g. I-80 east of Sacramento. But as the requirement for that is usually long haul and this tractor doesn't have the range for that (and is a day cab in any case), that's moot barring full autonomy. Local and regional delivery and distribution will be this tractor's metier, always depending on TCO.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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Nubo
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Sat Nov 18, 2017 6:07 pm

GRA wrote:
lorenfb wrote:With Just a 'small' production goal of 100K/per year initially, maybe time to take deposits?

Musk: The semi will go from 0-60 in 5 seconds. By itself or with a trailer.


Great, just what the trucking industry needs!

More commercially useful will be the ability to maintain 65 mph on grades, e.g. I-80 east of Sacramento. But as the requirement for that is usually long haul and this tractor doesn't have the range for that (and is a day cab in any case), that's moot barring full autonomy. Local and regional delivery and distribution will be this tractor's metier, always depending on TCO.


Shave that kind of time off a route, and you've potentially opened the door to additonal hauls that day/week. Tesla didn't reveal pricing though, which is a pretty strong indicator that their calculations and assumptions involving TCO warrant some good scrutiny. I'm interested to find opinions from actual truckers. Seems like there's a lot to love here from an operator standpoint. It's like they got rid of all of the crappy aspects of trucking.
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

SageBrush
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Location: Colorado

Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Sat Nov 18, 2017 6:14 pm

GRA wrote:
lorenfb wrote:With Just a 'small' production goal of 100K/per year initially, maybe time to take deposits?

Musk: The semi will go from 0-60 in 5 seconds. By itself or with a trailer.


Great, just what the trucking industry needs!

More commercially useful will be the ability to maintain 65 mph on grades, e.g. I-80 east of Sacramento. But as the requirement for that is usually long haul and this tractor doesn't have the range for that (and is a day cab in any case), that's moot barring full autonomy. Local and regional delivery and distribution will be this tractor's metier, always depending on TCO.

Tesla showed the day cab but they intend to build a sleep cab also.

I have no doubt whatsoever that Tesla is targeting the trans-mountain range routes. I expect the first mega-chargers to be at the bases of mountain ranges on each side. Musk spent a fair amount of time emphasizing the Tesla Semi's ability to haul a full cargo up 5% grades at close to 50% faster speeds than diesel. That really only matters on routes that cross mountain ranges. Moreover, mountains let the Tesla Semi regen abilities shine. The cost per mile differential will close to double on these routes, and routine maintenance like brakes will drop to zero.

Is your mind blown ? Mine is. The thought of transitioning commercial transport away from fool's fuel has always struck me as the most difficult part of the clean energy transition and now it just might turn out to be the easiest. Crazy.

The Elon talk also opened my eyes to something else: the cost of truck/fuel related in commercial transport is pretty minor*; the elephant in the room is the driver costs. So while Elon shied away from focusing on multi-truck convoys with only one driver, that is the real promise trucking companies want to come true. Tesla will have quite an edge here from the monster torque and power the trucks can supply to stay in close formation.

By the way, some other crazy numbers for the geeks amongst us:
1000 kWh battery capacity
1.6 MW Mega-charging average throughput

*Somewhere around 2 cents per pound moved 1000 miles for diesel at rates of $2.5 a gallon. Calculated from $1.5 a mile to move 80,000 pounds
Last edited by SageBrush on Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
2013 Model 'S' with QC & rear-view camera
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Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
3/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles

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LTLFTcomposite
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Sat Nov 18, 2017 8:13 pm

My mind was blown then reconstituted itself and flowed back into my skull (sort of like that liquid metal guy in T2 after being shattered in the liquid nitrogen) at the realization it's probably four years before these things hit the road in any significant numbers.
Cool stuff, I just wish they could figure out how to produce the products they invent faster.
LTL
White 2012 SV delivered 10 Dec 2011 returned 25 Nov 2014 replaced with stopgap ICE Sentra
[35 months] [35K miles] [9 Bars]
2013 Volt replaced after 36 months/30k miles with ICE Rogue
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DanCar
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Sat Nov 18, 2017 9:33 pm

Poll: Should California have a ZEV mandate for Semi trucks?
https://plus.google.com/u/1/+DanielCard ... 8BCou1awPc

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Nubo
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Sat Nov 18, 2017 11:52 pm

SageBrush wrote:...Moreover, mountains let the Tesla Semi regen abilities shine...


Yes, that struck me. Instead of noisy "Jake Brakes" that are outlawed in populated areas, regen will not only keep speed calmed on long descents, but make "fuel"! Now how much would you pay!? :lol:

Talk about a paradigm shift for trucking. Though I wonder if they have an answer to regen at high SOC.
I noticed you're still working with polymers.

earlgrey
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Sun Nov 19, 2017 12:12 am

Two of my nerd friends (one who works in the transportation industry) and I back-calculated the total cost of the semi from the TCO info Musk provided. We came up with $900k.

Maintenance costs have an exponential impact on our numbers though, so if we undershot maintenance, the purchase price could be quite a bit lower.

All in all, I’m impressed. 500 mile range with 400 miles in 30 minutes? Mind blown.
2014 S, 24k miles, purchased used in Dec 2016 with 19k miles

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LTLFTcomposite
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Sun Nov 19, 2017 4:15 am

Nubo wrote:Though I wonder if they have an answer to regen at high SOC.

Seems gps could be used to limit charging if it was determined to be in a location that was at risk.
Don't locomotives have giant resistors with fans? That would be overkill.
LTL
White 2012 SV delivered 10 Dec 2011 returned 25 Nov 2014 replaced with stopgap ICE Sentra
[35 months] [35K miles] [9 Bars]
2013 Volt replaced after 36 months/30k miles with ICE Rogue
2016 SV-adjacent May 2016 lost 4th bar March 2018

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