SageBrush
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Sun Nov 19, 2017 6:40 am

In most scenarios you go up before you go down
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

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LTLFTcomposite
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:35 am

SageBrush wrote:In most scenarios you go up before you go down

Most but not all, for example there are truck stops in Glenwood springs CO. A car can pretty much just ride the brakes in these situations but that could be death in a truck.
That said nobody has invented a diesel engine that puts fuel back in the tank so advantage EV on this one for sure.
LTL
White 2012 SV delivered 10 Dec 2011 returned 25 Nov 2014 replaced with stopgap ICE Sentra
[35 months] [35K miles] [9 Bars]
2013 Volt replaced after 36 months/30k miles with ICE Rogue
2016 SV-adjacent May 2016 lost 4th bar March 2018

SageBrush
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Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
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Location: Colorado

Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:00 am

LTLFTcomposite wrote:
SageBrush wrote:In most scenarios you go up before you go down

Most but not all, for example there are truck stops in Glenwood springs CO. A car can pretty much just ride the brakes in these situations but that could be death in a truck.
That said nobody has invented a diesel engine that puts fuel back in the tank so advantage EV on this one for sure.

The point is that the Tesla truck will have battery capacity available for regen before, e.g., the descent into Glenwood springs.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

SageBrush
Posts: 2930
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Sun Nov 19, 2017 9:19 am

This table has interesting information, albeit not limited to 80k pound trucks. It does provide context for where the Tesla Semi is likely to cut costs. Information from ATRI at
http://atri-online.org/wp-content/uploa ... 9-2016.pdf

Image
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

GRA
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Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:42 pm

SageBrush wrote:
GRA wrote:
lorenfb wrote:With Just a 'small' production goal of 100K/per year initially, maybe time to take deposits?



Great, just what the trucking industry needs!

More commercially useful will be the ability to maintain 65 mph on grades, e.g. I-80 east of Sacramento. But as the requirement for that is usually long haul and this tractor doesn't have the range for that (and is a day cab in any case), that's moot barring full autonomy. Local and regional delivery and distribution will be this tractor's metier, always depending on TCO.

Tesla showed the day cab but they intend to build a sleep cab also.

I have no doubt whatsoever that Tesla is targeting the trans-mountain range routes. I expect the first mega-chargers to be at the bases of mountain ranges on each side. Musk spent a fair amount of time emphasizing the Tesla Semi's ability to haul a full cargo up 5% grades at close to 50% faster speeds than diesel. That really only matters on routes that cross mountain ranges. Moreover, mountains let the Tesla Semi regen abilities shine. The cost per mile differential will close to double on these routes, and routine maintenance like brakes will drop to zero.

Is your mind blown ? Mine is. The thought of transitioning commercial transport away from fool's fuel has always struck me as the most difficult part of the clean energy transition and now it just might turn out to be the easiest. Crazy.

The Elon talk also opened my eyes to something else: the cost of truck/fuel related in commercial transport is pretty minor*; the elephant in the room is the driver costs. So while Elon shied away from focusing on multi-truck convoys with only one driver, that is the real promise trucking companies want to come true. Tesla will have quite an edge here from the monster torque and power the trucks can supply to stay in close formation.

By the way, some other crazy numbers for the geeks amongst us:
1000 kWh battery capacity
1.6 MW Mega-charging average throughput

*Somewhere around 2 cents per pound moved 1000 miles for diesel at rates of $2.5 a gallon. Calculated from $1.5 a mile to move 80,000 pounds

The range just isn't there for long haul, and is completely inadequate to justify a sleeper cab, especially when you have to add charging times. I'm also very skeptical of the 500 mile range claim - I figure probably 300 miles no worries over a long enough period to come out ahead on TCO, and I'd like to know just how much more that tractor weighs and will reduce the payload - I didn't see weight mentioned, but didn't watch the reveal, just read reports.

However, the range is fine for distribution, figuring the truck can make a round trip to a radius of 125-150 miles between charges. To take one case in point, Yellow Freight's breakbulk for all of southern California used to be in Barstow, as were and (probably still are) many other distribution terminals owing to cheap land. From Barstow, a tractor like the Tesla could handle distribution or delivery to anywhere in the Greater L.A. and Inland Empire areas crossing Tejon or Cajon passes, and could at least reach a delivery terminal in San Diego or Santa Barbara. There's no reason to try to force this tractor into a job it isn't suited to for now, when there's so much room for improvement in jobs it is suited for.

Personally, the whole semi/roadster reveal struck me as Elon trying to distract attention from the elephant in the room, the Model 3 delay. How about putting the attention on fixing the current problems, instead of yet more visionary stuff that's years away (and undoubtedly will be late, assuming the company survives)? I'm reminded of my own state's chief executive back in the '70s (and now back for a second round as a much more mature individual), Jerry Brown, whose visionary goals combined with a sometimes short attention span led to Mike Royko dubbing him 'Governor Moonbeam', and Gary Trudeau parodying him in Doonesbury. Of course, many of his visions. like Elon's, have come to pass because he popularized and pushed them, but less sizzle and more steak from Tesla would be welcome, at least by me. [Edit]: Seems like John Voelcker at GCR feels much the same:
Tesla Semi, new Roadster distract from Model 3 production problems
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1113867_teslas-semi-new-roadster-distract-from-model-3-production-problems
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

smkettner
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Sun Nov 19, 2017 3:34 pm

Same as the other vehicles I believe the Tesla Semi will have range creep with 600 to 800 range within 12 to 24 months after production starts.
1 bar lost at 21,451 miles, 16 months.
2 bar lost at 35,339 miles, 25 months.
LEAF traded at 45,400 miles for a RAV4-EV
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jpadc
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Sun Nov 19, 2017 3:44 pm

SageBrush wrote:This table has interesting information, albeit not limited to 80k pound trucks. It does provide context for where the Tesla Semi is likely to cut costs.

But the very last thing that will happen in the trucking industry is cutting drivers. Why? in a word... liability :!: Its one thing for a private owner's car to get into an accident that results in a death. If a Schneider National truck is in an accident that causes a death, millions and millions of dollars are at stake. Drivers will be constantly monitoring / controlling trucks on the road LONG after most private cars are automated. I suspect that change will come about the same time Airlines can do without pilots (which I would bet would happen first). Don't count on any cost savings from removing drivers anytime soon.
2013 Leaf S /w Charge Package - Purchased new in Iowa City Dec. 2014
My previous car was a 2008 Prius Touring Package 5 - 73k Miles, 43 MPG lifetime

GRA
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Tue Nov 21, 2017 7:47 pm

Her's one cost comparison estimate by George Bower at IEVS:
Making Sense Out of Tesla’s Semi Truck Economics
https://insideevs.com/making-sense-out-of-teslas-semi-truck-economics/

And here's Jonathan Ramsey at ABG:
This ex-trucker has some questions about the Tesla Semi
https://www.autoblog.com/2017/11/19/tesla-semi-trucker-questions/

He agrees with me that this is not a long haul tractor, and also has some other concerns he points out.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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LTLFTcomposite
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:11 pm

I don't think that guy understood what EM meant by third party devices. Everything on the dash is a button or switch made by some supplier, although to be fair they are on cars too including Tesla, just not made to look pretty or "integrated".
LTL
White 2012 SV delivered 10 Dec 2011 returned 25 Nov 2014 replaced with stopgap ICE Sentra
[35 months] [35K miles] [9 Bars]
2013 Volt replaced after 36 months/30k miles with ICE Rogue
2016 SV-adjacent May 2016 lost 4th bar March 2018

GRA
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Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
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Re: Tesla Semi Truck

Wed Nov 22, 2017 5:20 pm

One thing I noticed somehwere is that Elon claimed the truck would have a 1MWh pack (for 500 miles of range). George Bower did a calc several months back at IEVS that agrees remarkably well with this, arriving at 1,193 kWh for 600 miles of range: https://insideevs.com/tesla-semi-truck-battery-is-how-big/

So, let's look at the likely weight of that. According to the Model 3 paperwork submitted to the government for certification (see in that thread), the long-range pack in the Model 3 has a specific energy of 150Wh/kg (Es at the cell level is over 200). 1,000,000/150 = 6,666.67kg. I found the weight for a fairly typical semi- tractor diesel given as 2,880 lb. or 1,306 kg. The Tesla probably saves weight on the transmission, but an Eaton 13-spd Road Ranger weighs 720 lb. or 327 kg., so we're only looking at 1,633kg total. The drive shaft and clutch would add some more, but probably not all that significant, and the Tesla would have to add the weight of the motors.

Anyway, in round numbers you're talking about an extra 5,000 kg, minus the weight of the fuel. Long haul tractors typically have tanks of 200 to 300 gal., and assuming using 7 lb./gal. or 3.175 kg./gal. (6.943 lb./gal. or 3.149 kg./gal if you want to be more precise), you're talking about 635 to 953 kg., reducing the difference to 4,365 to 4,047 kg., or 9,623 lb. to 8,922 lb. less payload for the Tesla. As that's all going to be carried by the tractor's axles, it makes loading the nose of trailers and scaling problematic (as the trailer pin is supported by the tractor's two rear axles, and you're limited to 34.000 lb. tandem axle weight regardless of the gross weight). I'm sure that the Tesla will save weight by the use of carbon fiber etc., but that can also be used by conventional tractors.
Last edited by GRA on Sun Apr 22, 2018 4:29 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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