SageBrush
Posts: 4028
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Toyota and Subaru Agree to Jointly Develop BEV-dedicated Platform and BEV SUV

Fri Jun 07, 2019 7:01 pm

I'm interested in what Toyota and Subaru develop because I hold both companies' engineering in high regard. As for why now ? That is the Chinese market talking.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

GRA
Posts: 10299
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Toyota and Subaru Agree to Jointly Develop BEV-dedicated Platform and BEV SUV

Sat Jun 08, 2019 3:25 pm

LeftieBiker wrote:
And how can they be foot-dragging with H2 when they've got one of only three production FCEVs on the market, with plans to considerably expand their production?


I'm sure you know this, but for the new people in the crowd: companies like Toyota and Honda are using (subsidized) research into hydrogen fuel cell vehicles as a way to appear to be making progress toward a zero emission fleet, while actually just milking what was always known to be a dead end - at least for cars - for the publicity and government funding. GM has already proven that they can make a viable, long-lived lithium battery pack, but still Toyota, Subaru, et all insist that lithium batteries just aren't ready (unlike hydrogen fuel cells!) to power fleets of cars.

BEVs have benefited from an even greater amount of government funding. And no, GM hasn't proven that they can make a long-lived battery pack, nor has anyone else, unless you ignore degradation. My 16 y.o. ICE has exactly the same range it had when new - can any BEV say the same, even if it sits unused for that entire time? The advantage of liquid and gaseous fuels for energy storage (aside from the speed of replenishment and the energy density) is that the durability of that storage isn't affected by how much or how little of that storage you use, something that can't be said for batteries. I can run my ICE or any FCEV's tank from full to empty as often as I want, with zero effect on the longevity of the engine or stack. Until batteries can do likewise for a similar length of time, they will lack comparable durability.

All they can do now is fake that by employing a brute force approach, oversizing the pack (with the attendant weight, space and cost penalty) and holding capacity in reserve to be gradually released as the battery degrades. Given both the current and likely future constraints on battery manufacturing and possibly raw materials, this doesn't strike me as sustainable, even if it were desirable, as it wipes out much of a BEV's efficiency advantage.

It's entirely likely that FCEVs will face the same constraints, which is why the option of combining the two techs and being able to trade one off against the other by varying the percentage of each used strikes me as being a desirable option. If we don't have to go down that road, great.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 10299
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Toyota and Subaru Agree to Jointly Develop BEV-dedicated Platform and BEV SUV

Sat Jun 08, 2019 3:31 pm

SageBrush wrote:I'm interested in what Toyota and Subaru develop because I hold both companies' engineering in high regard. As for why now ? That is the Chinese market talking.

+1, and increasingly the EU as well, which is to say mass BEV adoption is still dependent on government mandates and subsidies.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

SageBrush
Posts: 4028
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Toyota and Subaru Agree to Jointly Develop BEV-dedicated Platform and BEV SUV

Sat Jun 08, 2019 3:33 pm

GRA wrote:
SageBrush wrote:I'm interested in what Toyota and Subaru develop because I hold both companies' engineering in high regard. As for why now ? That is the Chinese market talking.

+1, and increasingly the EU as well, which is to say mass BEV adoption is still dependent on government mandates and subsidies.

Which is to say that China and the EU have recognized the externalized costs of fossils.

From my POV the only worrisome part of Toyota's plans is to source batteries from BYD and CATL. For now those are poor quality batteries for car use. Perhaps quality will improve in time.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

GRA
Posts: 10299
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Toyota and Subaru Agree to Jointly Develop BEV-dedicated Platform and BEV SUV

Sat Jun 08, 2019 3:44 pm

SageBrush wrote:
GRA wrote:
SageBrush wrote:I'm interested in what Toyota and Subaru develop because I hold both companies' engineering in high regard. As for why now ? That is the Chinese market talking.

+1, and increasingly the EU as well, which is to say mass BEV adoption is still dependent on government mandates and subsidies.

Which is to say that China and the EU have recognized the externalized costs of fossil fuels.

Sure. I'd love to see us take all the money we spend every year on Centcom and charge it proportionately to the oil companies, while simultaneously eliminating all energy subsidies, tax breaks etc. for all energy sources (to include PV and wind, of course). Then the flying monkeys appear, and I wake up. :lol:

SageBrush wrote:From my POV the only worrisome part of Toyota's plans is to source batteries from BYD and CATL. For now those are poor quality batteries for car use. Perhaps quality will improve in time.

Probably necessary to get the Chinese government to allow them in at all, in a tech that China intends to dominate. ISTR China was making it very difficult for them to sell the LEAF (and other cars) there.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

Stoaty
Posts: 4478
Joined: Fri Jun 18, 2010 9:50 pm
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Leaf Number: 3871
Location: West Los Angeles

Re: Toyota and Subaru Agree to Jointly Develop BEV-dedicated Platform and BEV SUV

Sat Jun 08, 2019 4:51 pm

GRA wrote:Toyota hasn't dragged their feet on batteries, they've put enormous resources into developing solid-state batteries, which they feel have the necessary characteristics to make mass-market BEVs mainstream without gov't subsidies and mandates. I tend to agree.

The way you get to mass market BEV is by building a lot of them. Note that Tesla improved the EPA range of the refreshed model S by 10%. That is how costs come down for all of the components. Batteries are improving rapidly in cost and at least for Tesla retaining capacity longer. I know you don't believe this, but my six year old model S 85 kwh has almost 95% of its original capacity.
2011 Leaf with 62,000 miles given to Nephew
2013 Tesla Model S85 with 251 miles rated range at full charge
Leaf Spy Manual
Battery Aging Model Spreadsheet

SageBrush
Posts: 4028
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Toyota and Subaru Agree to Jointly Develop BEV-dedicated Platform and BEV SUV

Sun Jun 09, 2019 3:37 pm

Stoaty wrote:Note that Tesla improved the EPA range of the refreshed model S by 10%.

I'm under the impression that the improvement in the Model S range is due to a change in motor. I don't think the battery changed at all.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

GRA
Posts: 10299
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Toyota and Subaru Agree to Jointly Develop BEV-dedicated Platform and BEV SUV

Sun Jun 09, 2019 4:17 pm

Stoaty wrote:
GRA wrote:Toyota hasn't dragged their feet on batteries, they've put enormous resources into developing solid-state batteries, which they feel have the necessary characteristics to make mass-market BEVs mainstream without gov't subsidies and mandates. I tend to agree.

The way you get to mass market BEV is by building a lot of them. Note that Tesla improved the EPA range of the refreshed model S by 10%. That is how costs come down for all of the components. Batteries are improving rapidly in cost and at least for Tesla retaining capacity longer. I know you don't believe this, but my six year old model S 85 kwh has almost 95% of its original capacity.

You get to mass market by building and selling a lot of something; if the market isn't there, building them just leaves you with a lot of unsold inventory. Or, as is the case now, you rely on subsidies and mandates to bribe/coerce people into buying that product. Toyota believes that batteries aren't where they need to be for BEVs to stand on their own yet for universal service with the necessary durability, and I agree, although they have reached the point where they are well-suited (if still too expensive) for local use, and can handle shorter (weekend) road trips okay.

I have no problem believing your claims about the battery in your S85, but unless my conditions, usage and battery are identical to yours, it's purely anecdotal. Here's a graph showing scatter; note that this is from Europe, I believe mainly owners in the Netherlands, and their climate and terrain is hardly representative of the ones any BEV I'd have would experience, as I'm frequently climbing and descending thousands of feet at high speed in hot and cold temps, not to mention driving across extremely hot deserts, and any BEV battery I'd have would experience a low cycle life due to only occasional use, but long calendar life: https://images.app.goo.gl/cWr6PqyRQwLuBMoN9

As with previous degradation charts this is all self-reported, which adds its own biases. Only the company has access to all battery data, including pack replacements, repairs etc.

Here's another example, at an extreme of cycle life and used SoC range:
Here’s how a Tesla Model S holds up after 400,000 miles in 3 years
https://electrek.co/2018/07/17/tesla-model-s-holds-up-400000-miles-3-years/

Now, my BEV wouldn't see usage like that in such a short period of time: I'm more concerned with calendar life than cycle life, although being forced to limit my usable SoC range for longevity makes the car's real-world range far less than the EPA number, and of course the oldest Model S battery is just reaching the age of seven now. We don't know exactly what will happen by the time it reaches the same age (16) my ICE is now, but we know it will continue to degrade at some unknown rate: accelerated tests are better than nothing, but they don't replicate real-world calendar degradation en masse by the general public.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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