cwerdna
Gold Member
Posts: 7185
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2011 4:31 pm
Delivery Date: 28 Jul 2013
Location: SF Bay Area, CA

Re: Tesla Model X

Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:15 pm


Yep. No need for them to have driven one to make reliability predictions. They're not related.

Giving them an "average" reliability prediction for the 3 is likely charitable and dare I say, optimistic. I wonder if the Model 3 will actually achieve that at maintain it in the long term.

Automakers don't usually come out swinging and slamming CR over reliability ratings.

'13 blue Leaf SV w/premium package (owned)
'13 blue Leaf SV w/QC + LED & premium packages (lease over, car returned)
'06 Prius

DanCar
Posts: 932
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 12:00 am
Delivery Date: 10 Mar 2013
Location: SF Bay area, 94043

Re: Tesla Model X

Fri Oct 20, 2017 8:09 pm

cwerdna wrote:...Giving them an "average" reliability prediction for the 3 is likely charitable and dare I say, optimistic. I wonder if the Model 3 will actually achieve that at maintain it in the long term. ...
We can expect reliability of M3 similar to previous cars. Bad at first and improving over time. Since this car is simpler than Model X, we can expect the time frame to be shortened.

DaveinOlyWA
Gold Member
Posts: 12225
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Tesla Model X

Sat Oct 21, 2017 7:21 am

palmermd wrote:consumer reports is not a good source for car recommendations. heck, they even have a rating on the Model 3 and they've never even seen one, let alone touched one.


Hard to believe anyone can make a statement like this when the topic is the Reliability survey which is 100% customer sourced data??

Or is this your way of saying you prefer Motor Trend COTY months before a new model is released to the public??
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 (build 10/2016)"low water marks" 26,100.2 miles.363GID Ahr 79.55Hx95.35%kwh28.1QCs227,L2's 237
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

palmermd
Posts: 2435
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 3:19 pm
Delivery Date: 31 Mar 2011
Leaf Number: 1100011011
Location: Hermosa Beach, CA

Re: Tesla Model X

Sat Oct 21, 2017 8:26 am

DaveinOlyWA wrote:
palmermd wrote:consumer reports is not a good source for car recommendations. heck, they even have a rating on the Model 3 and they've never even seen one, let alone touched one.


Hard to believe anyone can make a statement like this when the topic is the Reliability survey which is 100% customer sourced data??

Or is this your way of saying you prefer Motor Trend COTY months before a new model is released to the public??


Serious. 100% customer sourced and they have a Model 3 result? and Motor Trend COTY is an even less reliable source. I agree with one of the posts above CR is good for just the failure reports from readers, they are not good at rating the driver experience. But the fact they are rating the Model 3 and other brand new cars bothers me. I don't think they should provide any predicted reliability. That is getting away from just reporting data.
Michael

Leaf since 31 March 2011
Driving electric since 1996


First Bar Loss
Second Bar Loss
Third Bar Loss

GRA
Posts: 7443
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Tesla Model X

Sat Oct 21, 2017 11:27 am

palmermd wrote:
DaveinOlyWA wrote:
palmermd wrote:consumer reports is not a good source for car recommendations. heck, they even have a rating on the Model 3 and they've never even seen one, let alone touched one.


Hard to believe anyone can make a statement like this when the topic is the Reliability survey which is 100% customer sourced data??

Or is this your way of saying you prefer Motor Trend COTY months before a new model is released to the public??


Serious. 100% customer sourced and they have a Model 3 result? and Motor Trend COTY is an even less reliable source. I agree with one of the posts above CR is good for just the failure reports from readers, they are not good at rating the driver experience. But the fact they are rating the Model 3 and other brand new cars bothers me. I don't think they should provide any predicted reliability. That is getting away from just reporting data.

When CR predicts reliability they so state, and give their reasons (e.g. "Previous versions of the '-' have had worse than average reliability"). No one should read anything more into it than what it says - it's a prediction, not a fact. The owner's reliability survey results are facts.

Re CR and the "driver experience,", they are good at ergonomic and functional issues, but they aren't writing for a driving enthusiast audience, so there's less energy (and adjectives) put into the subjective areas of driving feel, especially at performance extremes that the person using their car for more typical duty will never experience - while the typical C&D reader may place a lot more emphasis on steering or brake feel (not to mention how easy it is to get the tail out or whether the pedals are well-spaced to do a heel and toe downshift, even if most rarely do either), the typical CR reader has less or no interest in such matters. I'm generalizing, obviously. I value both, using each for what they're best at.
Last edited by GRA on Sat Oct 21, 2017 11:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

palmermd
Posts: 2435
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 3:19 pm
Delivery Date: 31 Mar 2011
Leaf Number: 1100011011
Location: Hermosa Beach, CA

Re: Tesla Model X

Sat Oct 21, 2017 11:47 am

GRA wrote: I value both, using each for what they're best at.


This we can all agree with.
Michael

Leaf since 31 March 2011
Driving electric since 1996


First Bar Loss
Second Bar Loss
Third Bar Loss

User avatar
LTLFTcomposite
Posts: 4337
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 6:06 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Dec 2011
Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Boca Raton FL

Re: Tesla Model X

Sat Oct 21, 2017 12:40 pm

Re predicted reliability, Tesla doesn't do themselves any favors there when they talk about production "bottlenecks" and fall short on their production targets. Admittedly they live under a microscope, some of which is self-inflicted by their hype machine, but they aren't exactly instilling confidence that they have their act together when it comes to manufacturing.
LTL
White 2012 SV delivered 10 Dec 2011 returned 25 Nov 2014 replaced with stopgap ICE Sentra
[35 months] [35K miles] [9 Bars]
2013 Volt replaced after 36 months/30k miles with ICE Rogue

DaveinOlyWA
Gold Member
Posts: 12225
Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Delivery Date: 10 Nov 2016
Leaf Number: 314199
Location: Olympia, WA
Contact: Website

Re: Tesla Model X

Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:10 am

palmermd wrote:
GRA wrote: I value both, using each for what they're best at.


This we can all agree with.


add to that the prediction of "average" which tells me they have no great confidence OR concerns... its the perfect "lets wait and see" statement.

how is this misleading?
2011 SL; 44,598 miles. 2013 S; 44,840 miles.2016 S30 (build 10/2016)"low water marks" 26,100.2 miles.363GID Ahr 79.55Hx95.35%kwh28.1QCs227,L2's 237
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

GRA
Posts: 7443
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Tesla Model X

Tue Oct 24, 2017 5:26 pm

Some further details, from an IEVS article:
CR claims that it estimated an average reliability rating for the Model 3 due to the fact that it shares tech with the Model S, which currently ranks among the bottom third of the magazine’s ratings of 27 brands, even after a recent substantial improvement. Further, the Model X has never been reliable as far as CR is concerned and this year it’s plain terrible. The magazine’s director for automotive testing, Jake Fisher, explains:

They realize that it’s important to get this car right. We would’ve not predicted average for the Model 3 unless we saw above-average data for the Model S. If the Model S was still just average, we would’ve not made that prediction.”

Keep in mind that CR predicting reliability for new vehicles is not a new concept. The magazine commonly does just that. Generally, estimates are based on the automaker’s current reputation for reliability, comparable models, shared components, etc. . . .
https://insideevs.com/consumer-reports-tesla-reliability-messy/
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

sparky
Posts: 671
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 10:55 am
Delivery Date: 08 Jan 2011
Location: SoCal

Re: Tesla Model X

Thu Oct 26, 2017 10:39 pm

cwerdna wrote:Also, Google for site:teslamotorsclub.com "model x" latches replace.

How many people do you know w/sub-$50K Japanese cars which have door problems like these even after the car's 5+ years old? How common are door problems on Nissan Leafs, going all the way back to model year 2011?
Gee, now you're making me wish I got an Audi or a BMW or a Lexus. Oh wait, I don't want to drive any of those. The door latches are splendid though.

Return to “Other Electric Cars & Plug-In Hybrids”