lorenfb wrote:The numbers are in for Tesla from: http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
Summary YTD for U.S.:
S - 8845, X - 6745, Total - 15590
Assuming 65% U.S. then WW - 24K, or assuming 50% U.S. then WW - 31K
Assuming that Tesla plans to achieve in excess of 100K sales for 2017 (2016 - 76K), then Tesla needs to deliver
worst case about 76K or in the best case about 69K. That amounts to an average combined S & X delivery rate
of about 11K units per month WW worst case or about 10K best case. The highest delivery rate occurred this
year in March (U.S. ~ 5.6K, @ 50% WW 11.2K). So if Tesla can achieve for the balance of the year, a delivery rate
exceeding March '17, then Tesla may achieve 100K deliveries for 2017. Good luck Elon!
Note: Above assumptions based on Model 3 being insignificant for 2017.
Possible? Yes. Likely? Not really. But they'll be close. Probably handily beat 2016.
Also, Tesla has a history of a large surge of deliveries at the end of each quarter. If that pattern continues, and June beats March, then things will be looking a lot more likely.
I'm curious as to what the Model X sales numbers look internationally. I know the US loves the SUVs and crossovers more than much of the rest of the world. I wouldn't be surprised if a higher percentage of Model Xs are sold in the US than Model Ss.