scottf200
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Re: Tesla Model X

Wed Mar 28, 2018 9:24 pm

GRA wrote:I don't think there's any doubt that the severity of the damage was due to the out-of-action barrier. The far more important question as far as the investigation goes is did hitting the barrier result from human or A/P error?

Data represents whether statistically-wise new car features
... (seat-belts, A.E.Braking, Lane-Keep-Assist, etc from many companies and auto-pilot from Tesla or variations from other companies) ...
... are saving more lives than not having these features.

Image
Last edited by scottf200 on Thu Mar 29, 2018 7:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
100K EV miles and 80% EV usage
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'17 Tesla Model X 100D 'used'| RIP '16 P90DL Sig | 2011 Volt kid2 | 2016 for wife | 2012 kid1

cwerdna
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Re: Tesla Model X

Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:35 pm

scottf200 wrote:
GRA wrote:I don't think there's any doubt that the severity of the damage was due to the out-of-action barrier. The far more important question as far as the investigation goes is did hitting the barrier result from human or A/P error?

Data represents whether statistically-wise new car features
... (seat-belts, A.E.Braking, Lane-Keep-Assist, etc from many companies and auto-pilot from Tesla or variations from other companies) ...
... are saving more lives than not having these features.

Image

Yeah, but how many of those are under the same lighting and sun conditions as the driver that died? How many were in the same lanes and how many required the driver to intervene? And, we don't know if this driver used the auto-lane change feature and got changed into a non-lane w/the concrete barrier.

We also don't know how clean the camera lenses were and if all cameras were working on this particular X. The software revision of all those vehicles is likely to be not all the same.

I haven't had time due to other priorities to follow that monster thread but https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... st-2642486 is supposedly what the lighting and sun looked like right before the crash.

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DaveinOlyWA
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Re: Tesla Model X

Thu Mar 29, 2018 7:31 am

scottf200 wrote:
GRA wrote:I don't think there's any doubt that the severity of the damage was due to the out-of-action barrier. The far more important question as far as the investigation goes is did hitting the barrier result from human or A/P error?

Data represents whether statistically-wise new car features
... (seat-belts, A.E.Braking, Lane-Keep-Assist, etc from many companies and auto-pilot from Tesla or variations from other companies) ...
... are saving more lives than not having these features.

Image


I sure the data will also show 100 million successful trips along that route every year along with a dozen deaths. I guess we good then, right?

The reality is we have nearly perfected the art of self sacrifice despite the best efforts of manufacturers to prevent it.
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scottf200
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Re: Tesla Model X

Thu Mar 29, 2018 9:15 am

DaveinOlyWA wrote:I sure the data will also show 100 million successful trips along that route every year along with a dozen deaths. I guess we good then, right? The reality is we have nearly perfected the art of self sacrifice despite the best efforts of manufacturers to prevent it.

I'm confused.

There are many 1000s of car accidents daily with people getting hurt to varying degrees and even dying in normal all manually driven cars. Right?

The goal is to lessen the accidents, deaths, family grief, and all surrounding things related to this (insurance cost rising, worker (police, fire, city road), cost, cleanup cost, rebuilding safety road features guards, barrels, compression, etc).
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'17 Tesla Model X 100D 'used'| RIP '16 P90DL Sig | 2011 Volt kid2 | 2016 for wife | 2012 kid1

GRA
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Re: Tesla Model X

Thu Mar 29, 2018 4:28 pm

^^^Sure, that's the goal, but without public buy-in AVs won't happen. People's concerns about turning their safety over to a computer are inevitable, regardless of whether or not doing so is statistically safer. AVs are supposed and must be able to prevent this sort of all-too-common human-caused accident. If they can't handle routine problems like this in good conditions, how are they supposed to handle corner cases in bad ones?

As of yet, we simply don't know what the cause of this accident was. Depending on the amount of damage suffered to the car's memory, we may never know, but it is inevitable that early fatal self-driving accidents will attract a whole lot of attention, regardless of what the statistics say (and Elon was called out by statisticians after Joshua Brown's accident for making safety claims for A/P that violated all sorts of statistical methodologies). We'll just have to wait and see what NTSB says - if this was a human error, very sad, but we're used to those and move on. If not, Tesla's on the hook for a bunch of money and takes a major PR hit, as do AVs, but it's the Uber crash that will really stoke public resistance. After all, if you're riding in an AV you've made that choice for yourself, but if you get hit by one you haven't.
Last edited by GRA on Fri Mar 30, 2018 3:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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scottf200
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Re: Tesla Model X

Thu Mar 29, 2018 9:54 pm

GRA wrote:The far more important question as far as the investigation goes is did hitting the barrier result from human or A/P error?

These stats are about THAT same stretch of HIGHWAY.
20,000 in the past 3 months.
200 per day.

Image
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Volt = 53+ mile BEV up to 100 MPH, then 40 MPG hybrid with a 9 gal gas tank
'17 Tesla Model X 100D 'used'| RIP '16 P90DL Sig | 2011 Volt kid2 | 2016 for wife | 2012 kid1

edatoakrun
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Re: Tesla Model X

Fri Mar 30, 2018 8:56 am

Very strange assertion here:

If the driver experienced repeated AP failures in a particular location, why would he trust AP there on the day he died?

I-TEAM EXCLUSIVE: Victim who died in Tesla crash had complained about auto-pilot

...The NTSB told Dan Noyes from their Washington headquarters, they recovered both the restraint control module and infotainment module on Wednesday...

We're learning much more about the victim -- 38-year-old Walter Huang had a wife and two kids, lived in Foster City, worked for 13 years as a programmer at Electronic Arts. This past November, he got a job as an Apple engineer and bought his new Tesla, posting a picture on his Facebook page...

Dan Noyes also spoke and texted with Walter Huang's brother, Will, today. He confirmed Walter was on the way to work at Apple when he died.

He also makes a startling claim -- that before the crash, Walter complained "7-10 times the car would swivel toward that same exact barrier during auto-pilot. Walter took it into dealership addressing the issue, but they couldn't duplicate it there."

Noyes: "The family is telling me they provided an invoice to investigators, that the victim took the car in because it kept veering at the same barrier. How important is that information?"
O'Neil" "That information has been received by the CHP, they've been acting on it for some time now."

Tesla would not comment on the information we've learned...

http://abc7news.com/automotive/i-team-e ... t/3275600/
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edatoakrun
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Re: Tesla Model X

Fri Mar 30, 2018 7:03 pm

I think TSLA's blame-the-driver strategy may not be sufficient this time...

An Update on Last Week’s Accident

The Tesla Team March 30, 2018

...In the moments before the collision, which occurred at 9:27 a.m. on Friday, March 23rd, Autopilot was engaged with the adaptive cruise control follow-distance set to minimum. The driver had received several visual and one audible hands-on warning earlier in the drive and the driver’s hands were not detected on the wheel for six seconds prior to the collision. The driver had about five seconds and 150 meters of unobstructed view of the concrete divider with the crushed crash attenuator, but the vehicle logs show that no action was taken...

https://www.tesla.com/blog/update-last- ... s-accident
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scottf200
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Re: Tesla Model X

Sat Mar 31, 2018 5:33 am

** Driver's make choices in how to use the driver assistant feature **

READ the last four paragraphs. Obviously a very sad situation for the family and everyone involved.

Image
Last edited by scottf200 on Sat Mar 31, 2018 6:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
100K EV miles and 80% EV usage
Volt = 53+ mile BEV up to 100 MPH, then 40 MPG hybrid with a 9 gal gas tank
'17 Tesla Model X 100D 'used'| RIP '16 P90DL Sig | 2011 Volt kid2 | 2016 for wife | 2012 kid1

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RegGuheert
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Re: Tesla Model X

Sat Mar 31, 2018 6:19 am

Here is what Tesla wrote:
Tesla wrote:The driver had five seconds and 150 meters of unobstructed view of the concrete divider with the crushed crash attenuator, but the vehicle logs show that no action was taken.
A more appropriate statement might have been:
Autopilot, which was controlling the car at the time, had an unobstructed view of the concrete divider yet it chose to drive directly into it, resulting in the death of the driver.
And they go on to lie with statistics:
Tesla wrote:In the US, there is one fatality every 86 million miles across all vehicles from all manufacturers. For Tesla, there is one fatality, including all known pedestrian fatalities, every 320 million miles in vehicles equipped with Autopilot hardware. If you are driving a Tesla equipped with with Autopilot hardware, you are 3.7 times less likely to be involved in a fatal accident.
That may all be true, but the implication by the wording is that the reduction in fatality rate is somehow influenced by the availability of Autopilot hardware. There is no evidence one way or the other whether Autopilot improves Tesla's statistics. In fact, Autopilot might be making them worse than they would be otherwise.

But the simple fact is that other factors are likely much more important in these statistics. For instance, the Tesla Model S, which accounts for most of the vehicles with Autopilot included, received the best crash rating of any car ever, IIRC. Also, the Tesla Model X and Model X are heavier than most sedans on the road, so they will tend to fare better than smaller vehicles in accidents. Also note that Autopilot is only capable of driving in the simplest and safest environments. It does not take on the most challenging driving tasks that humans must handle. Finally, since Tesla ALWAYS blames the driver for fatal crashes with Autopilot engaged, if follows that Autopilot gets NO credit for miles covered when there are not crashes: the driver gets all that credit also. In other words, Autopilot has no miles of driving without fatalities since all miles with fatalities are credited to the driver.

All this in an attempt to draw attention away from the fact that Autopilot drove this vehicle directly into a concrete divider barrier, killing the driver.
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