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RegGuheert
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Delivery Date: 16 Mar 2012
Leaf Number: 5926
Location: Northern VA

Re: Tesla Model X

Mon May 22, 2017 8:50 am

edatoakrun wrote:Managed to get not-quite one m/kWh until the X overheated and cut the kW/speed...
Apparently, the OAT was just above freezing and it is not clear that the power was limited due to overheating. If the calculation of 630 Wh/km is correct, that means that the power draw from the battery was about 125 kW and that 63 kWh would have been drained from the battery during that first 30 minutes. Tesla owners report that their cars actively limit the output power below about this SOC in order to protect the battery, regardless of temperature:
jlewisthe3rd at Tesla Forum wrote:Yes acceleration/torque is reduced as the SoC is reduced. The approximate percentage is ~60% when it becomes noticeable. I've tested both Dual Motor and Single Motor and its the same. So enjoy your peak performance from 100% - 85% starting to taper from 84%-65% but not terrible noticeable. Then your noticeable decrease is (~60%) - 30%. Then anything below 30% is the protective battery mode where your power is visibly limited on the power gauge.
In the video, the power limit (at over 200 kW!) came into play at 31% SOC.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
2011 miles at purchase. 10K miles on Apr 14, 2013. 20K miles (55.7Ah) on Aug 7, 2014, 30K miles (52.0Ah) on Dec 30, 2015, 40K miles (49.8Ah) on Feb 8, 2017.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

edatoakrun
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Re: Tesla Model X

Fri May 26, 2017 3:52 pm

Tesla's Model X missing out on America's voracious hunger for SUVs, crossovers

While Tesla Inc.’s Model S has been a hit and thousands lined up to order the upcoming Model 3 sedan, the Model X crossover hasn’t met the CEO's expectations. Model X deliveries have yet to keep pace with the Model S, as Musk predicted, and U.S. registrations of the vehicle have slipped the last two quarters, according to IHS Markit.

Musk has chalked up challenges with the Model X to making the vehicle too complicated. Features including the double-hinged falcon-wing doors have constrained production and contributed to a costly $82,500 starting price. For Tesla, the lack of cheaper and easier configurations has meant missing out on roaring demand amid America’s SUV and crossover boom.

“Luxury SUVs are really hot right now, and the Model X should have been a big hit and broadened Tesla’s audience,” said Michelle Krebs, an analyst with Autotrader.com. “You don’t hear a lot of buzz about the Model X, and when you do, it’s the negative stuff.”...

http://www.autonews.com/article/2017052 ... r-for-suvs
no condition is permanent

GetOffYourGas
Posts: 1487
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:56 pm
Delivery Date: 09 Mar 2012
Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: Tesla Model X

Tue May 30, 2017 2:03 pm

Meanwhile, in actual US sales ...

In the first four months of 2017, the Model X was the 2nd best-selling BEV in the US. Right behind the Model S.

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)

finman100
Posts: 259
Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2012 10:42 am
Delivery Date: 06 Jun 2014
Location: Albany, OR

Re: Tesla Model X

Tue May 30, 2017 3:44 pm

That's awesome for X sales. Go Elon and Tesla!

I hear a lot of positives about the falcon wing doors and pano windshield.

Every owner I talk to loves to show these things off.

Seems there are some really happy X owners out there.
Albany, Oregon
2014 Silver SV with charge/LED package. June 2014, I'm in the EV game!
30,200 miles
19.1 kWh on 100% charge (56ish Ah)
4.2 miles/kWh average
Best trip: all of 'em. They're all no-gas!

lorenfb
Posts: 1144
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: Tesla Model X

Tue May 30, 2017 8:33 pm

GetOffYourGas wrote:Meanwhile, in actual US sales ...

In the first four months of 2017, the Model X was the 2nd best-selling BEV in the US. Right behind the Model S.

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/


Old news! Thursday's data should provide more meaningful info, i.e. without the typical Tesla "distorted" Q1 production/delivery
output.

GetOffYourGas
Posts: 1487
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:56 pm
Delivery Date: 09 Mar 2012
Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: Tesla Model X

Wed May 31, 2017 5:04 am

lorenfb wrote:
GetOffYourGas wrote:Meanwhile, in actual US sales ...

In the first four months of 2017, the Model X was the 2nd best-selling BEV in the US. Right behind the Model S.

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/


Old news! Thursday's data should provide more meaningful info, i.e. without the typical Tesla "distorted" Q1 production/delivery
output.


Yes, it's old news. But the facts are in stark contrast to the opinion that "You don’t hear a lot of buzz about the Model X, and when you do, it’s the negative stuff."

May is always a slower month for Tesla's domestic sales. They have always focused on international deliveries earlier in each quarter. You really have to look at Tesla on a quarter-by-quarter basis. Otherwise, you will drive yourself crazy; they're way up! they're way down!
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)

lorenfb
Posts: 1144
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: Tesla Model X

Wed May 31, 2017 8:53 am

GetOffYourGas wrote:May is always a slower month for Tesla's domestic sales. They have always focused on international deliveries earlier in each quarter. You really have to look at Tesla on a quarter-by-quarter basis. Otherwise, you will drive yourself crazy; they're way up! they're way down!


Right. At some point though, e.g. 5 months into 2017, YTD results become indicative of how the year will play out.

GetOffYourGas
Posts: 1487
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:56 pm
Delivery Date: 09 Mar 2012
Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: Tesla Model X

Wed May 31, 2017 9:12 am

lorenfb wrote:
GetOffYourGas wrote:May is always a slower month for Tesla's domestic sales. They have always focused on international deliveries earlier in each quarter. You really have to look at Tesla on a quarter-by-quarter basis. Otherwise, you will drive yourself crazy; they're way up! they're way down!


Right. At some point though, e.g. 5 months into 2017, YTD results become indicative of how the year will play out.


True. So at 4 months into 2017 (which is all we have today), the Model X is up 57% compared to the same period in 2016 (5015 to 3195). Again, just US sales which in itself is misleading. But it's what I have available to look at.

In 2016, Tesla sold 18k Model Xs to US customers. What is your guess for 2017? A 57% gain is 28k. I think that 25k is entirely possible.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)

lorenfb
Posts: 1144
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
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Location: SoCal

Re: Tesla Model X

Wed May 31, 2017 1:33 pm

GetOffYourGas wrote:In 2016, Tesla sold 18k Model Xs to US customers. What is your guess for 2017? A 57% gain is 28k. I think that 25k is entirely possible.


Very possible. Again, the key is the total number for both S & X in '17 (3 not considered a factor for '17) and how that
relates to Tesla's growth trajectory, i.e. '16 deliveries ~ 76K. Ideally, market may want to see a 50% growth over '16
(~ 115K deliveries for '17). So by 7/1/17, about 50K - 57K total (U.S. ~ 37K). Anything less than 45K - 50K leaves too much
of a sales catch-up for Q3 & Q4 and/or for a late production "push". But again, Elon does "pull hat tricks".

lorenfb
Posts: 1144
Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
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Re: Tesla Model X

Thu Jun 01, 2017 8:39 am

The numbers are in for Tesla from: http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

Summary YTD for U.S.:
S - 8845, X - 6745, Total - 15590

Assuming 65% U.S. then WW - 24K, or assuming 50% U.S. then WW - 31K

Assuming that Tesla plans to achieve in excess of 100K sales for 2017 (2016 - 76K), then Tesla needs to deliver
worst case about 76K or in the best case about 69K. That amounts to an average combined S & X delivery rate
of about 11K units per month WW worst case or about 10K best case. The highest delivery rate occurred this
year in March (U.S. ~ 5.6K, @ 50% WW 11.2K). So if Tesla can achieve for the balance of the year, a delivery rate
exceeding March '17, then Tesla may achieve 100K deliveries for 2017. Good luck Elon!

Note: Above assumptions based on Model 3 being insignificant for 2017.

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