GetOffYourGas
Posts: 1446
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:56 pm
Delivery Date: 09 Mar 2012
Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: Tesla Model X

Thu Jun 01, 2017 10:09 am

lorenfb wrote:The numbers are in for Tesla from: http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

Summary YTD for U.S.:
S - 8845, X - 6745, Total - 15590

Assuming 65% U.S. then WW - 24K, or assuming 50% U.S. then WW - 31K

Assuming that Tesla plans to achieve in excess of 100K sales for 2017 (2016 - 76K), then Tesla needs to deliver
worst case about 76K or in the best case about 69K. That amounts to an average combined S & X delivery rate
of about 11K units per month WW worst case or about 10K best case. The highest delivery rate occurred this
year in March (U.S. ~ 5.6K, @ 50% WW 11.2K). So if Tesla can achieve for the balance of the year, a delivery rate
exceeding March '17, then Tesla may achieve 100K deliveries for 2017. Good luck Elon!

Note: Above assumptions based on Model 3 being insignificant for 2017.


Possible? Yes. Likely? Not really. But they'll be close. Probably handily beat 2016.

Also, Tesla has a history of a large surge of deliveries at the end of each quarter. If that pattern continues, and June beats March, then things will be looking a lot more likely.

I'm curious as to what the Model X sales numbers look internationally. I know the US loves the SUVs and crossovers more than much of the rest of the world. I wouldn't be surprised if a higher percentage of Model Xs are sold in the US than Model Ss.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
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lorenfb
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Joined: Tue Dec 17, 2013 10:53 pm
Delivery Date: 22 Nov 2013
Leaf Number: 416635
Location: SoCal

Re: Tesla Model X

Thu Jun 01, 2017 10:49 am

GetOffYourGas wrote:Also, Tesla has a history of a large surge of deliveries at the end of each quarter. If that pattern continues, and June beats March, then things will be looking a lot more likely.


That's nearly 70K in the 2nd half of 2017 (all of 2016 was only 76K), i.e. not an easy ramp.

GetOffYourGas wrote:I'm curious as to what the Model X sales numbers look internationally. I know the US loves the SUVs and crossovers more than much of the rest of the world. I wouldn't be surprised if a higher percentage of Model Xs are sold in the US than Model Ss.


We'll know that in the first week of next month, plus how many referrals Tesla owners need to email
to prospective Tesla buyers, and how much faster the robots need to work in the 2nd half.

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jlv
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Re: Tesla Model X

Thu Jun 01, 2017 10:59 am

lorenfb wrote:Note: Above assumptions based on Model 3 being insignificant for 2017.

I'm seeing estimates of 45K being delivered in 2017, which (if they can pull it off) would not be insignificant.
Spreadsheet with Tesla car delivered stats: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... rome=false
(scroll to the right to the 2nd set of tables for the M3 estimates)
'13 SL+Prem (mfg 12/13, leased 4/14, bought 5/17)Tesla S 75D (3/17)
Model 3 reservation
(Probably no LEAF2 for me)

lorenfb
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Re: Tesla Model X

Thu Jun 01, 2017 11:10 am

jlv wrote:
lorenfb wrote:Note: Above assumptions based on Model 3 being insignificant for 2017.

I'm seeing estimates of 45K being delivered in 2017, which (if they can pull it off) would not be insignificant.
Spreadsheet with Tesla car delivered stats: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... rome=false
(scroll to the right to the 2nd set of tables for the M3 estimates)


Hopefully Tesla is not again using the same VisiCalc spreadsheet cell equations it used to forecast its initial Model X deliveries!

Zythryn
Posts: 903
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2010 4:49 am

Re: Tesla Model X

Tue Jun 13, 2017 11:34 am

2017 Tesla Model X scores 5 stars overall, 5 stars in each category and 5 stars in every single sub category.
Reportedly the only SUV to do so, although I haven't compared more than a couple others.
Previous owner of Prius, Volt & Leaf
Current owner of Model S
http://www.netzeromn.com

GRA
Posts: 6832
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Tesla Model X

Tue Jun 13, 2017 7:23 pm

Via IEVS:
Tesla Model X Crash Tests Complete – 5 Stars In All Categories
http://insideevs.com/tesla-model-x-crash-test/

Same story as above, but check out the photos of our own MNL member scottf200's Model X after a 70 mph head-on with a deer, followed by hitting a tree. Glad to hear that his son's okay and Scott mostly is too, although he wrote he had some damage to his left eye and socket (apparently from the deer/windshield hitting him).
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

lorenfb
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Re: Tesla Model X

Tue Jun 13, 2017 10:33 pm

GRA wrote:Via IEVS:
Tesla Model X Crash Tests Complete – 5 Stars In All Categories
http://insideevs.com/tesla-model-x-crash-test/

Same story as above, but check out the photos of our own MNL member scottf200's Model X after a 70 mph head-on with a deer, followed by hitting a tree. Glad to hear that his son's okay and Scott mostly is too, although he wrote he had some damage to his left eye and socket (apparently from the deer/windshield hitting him).


Interesting the way the front and rear body sections separated, i.e. It appears that the point of separation is at the end of the
glass section of the roof.

GRA
Posts: 6832
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Tesla Model X

Wed Jun 14, 2017 6:53 pm

lorenfb wrote:
GRA wrote:Via IEVS:
Tesla Model X Crash Tests Complete – 5 Stars In All Categories
http://insideevs.com/tesla-model-x-crash-test/

Same story as above, but check out the photos of our own MNL member scottf200's Model X after a 70 mph head-on with a deer, followed by hitting a tree. Glad to hear that his son's okay and Scott mostly is too, although he wrote he had some damage to his left eye and socket (apparently from the deer/windshield hitting him).

Interesting the way the front and rear body sections separated, i.e. It appears that the point of separation is at the end of the
glass section of the roof.

Not sure what you're referring to. The only 'body separation' I see is where the left FWD was opened by Scott's son after the crash, to retrieve his cell phone.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

lorenfb
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Re: Tesla Model X

Wed Jun 14, 2017 10:06 pm

Image
It's from here; http://insideevs.com/tesla-model-x-crash-test/

That's the deer accident Tesla X being referenced, right Guy?

Zythryn
Posts: 903
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2010 4:49 am

Re: Tesla Model X

Thu Jun 15, 2017 5:15 am

lorenfb wrote:Image
It's from here; http://insideevs.com/tesla-model-x-crash-test/

That's the deer accident Tesla X being referenced, right Guy?


"Deer accident"? I suppose it can be described that way.
More accurately that is the accident in which the Model X hit a deer at 70 mph, then a tree.
The passenger was able to open the door, then open the driver's side falcon wind door. No injuries to passenger, driver suffered an injury from the deer striking him.

Pretty impressive.
Previous owner of Prius, Volt & Leaf
Current owner of Model S
http://www.netzeromn.com

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