GRA
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Re: Tesla Supercharger Network

Mon Apr 24, 2017 3:06 pm

scottf200 wrote:
GRA wrote:
scottf200 wrote:Looks like Meijers SCs are picking up the pace. This one is on supercharger.info Rolling Meadows, IL @ 1301 Meijer Drive.

And in Bolingbrook, IL this Meijer's parking lot supercharge just showed up on TMC and is fairly close to me. It is 50%+ done and not on supercharger.info yet. Looks like it is more than 50% done but was under the supercharger.info crowdsourced radar. Wonder how many other superchargers are in construction progress that are not even known about.

I think it's fair to say nowhere near enough to even approach Elon's claim that U.S. SCs would be doubled this year (340 extant on Jan. 1st), as all of 16 have opened so far, including El Paso and Arlington, TX today, making 3 so far this month. Building SCs in places like Victor, NY is all well and good, but I-10/20/30/40/80 remain unfinished, as do I-5/15/25/35/55/65/75 and many of the routes to national parks, and in many cases SCs in the appropriate locations are not even known to be permitted as we close in on the summer vacation season.

Right but we really have no clue on the pace because this is just crowd sourced and in my example it had to be going on for a few weeks and no one knew anything.

Tesla Supercharging network is unbelievable impressive compared to everything else. Put *one* or *two* chargers for chademo or ccs when Tesla's are putting in 8 ore more with the new standard I heard at a Tesla meetup today is 10 minimum.

Tesla is certainly ahead of everyone else as far as creating a QC network, but that doesn't mean they can perform miracles. There's often one or two stealth SCs unknown to supercharge.info that pop up each month, but the average pace hasn't been significantly altered by them.

Assuming that Tesla manages to complete another 4 U.S. SCs this month, that will give them 20 for the year. To reach Elon's claimed doubling (remember, 340 existing on 1/1/17) would require Tesla to complete an average of 40 U.S. SCs each month from May on, and IIRR they've never completed more than 16 in a single month, so to expect that they've got that many hidden away that none of the alert Tesla public knows about is (dare I say it) Ludicrous.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Re: Tesla Supercharger Network

Mon Apr 24, 2017 3:40 pm

For some of Tesla's latest claims via IEVS:
Tesla Stresses Importance/Expansion Of Charging Network Ahead Of Model 3
http://insideevs.com/tesla-stresses-imp ... f-model-3/

. . . In a blog post today, Tesla reiterated its stance with the following statement:

“As Tesla prepares for our first mass-market vehicle and continues to increase our Model S and Model X fleet, we’re making charging an even greater priority. It is extremely important to us and our mission that charging is convenient, abundant, and reliable for all owners, current and future. In 2017, we’ll be doubling the Tesla charging network, expanding existing sites so drivers never wait to charge, and broadening our charging locations within city centers.”

Tesla says that it’ll have 10,000 Superchargers online globally by the end of 2017. That’s in addition to the 15,000 destination chargers set connect Tesla owners to electricity around the world. Tesla adds:

“In North America, we’ll increase the number of Superchargers by 150 percent, and in California alone we’ll add more than 1,000 Superchargers.”

But here’s where it gets even more interesting. Tesla says some Supercharger sites will be upgraded to have several dozen charging stalls:

“Toward that goal, Tesla will build larger sites along our busiest travel routes that will accommodate several dozen Teslas Supercharging simultaneously. In addition, many sites will be built further off the highway to allow local Tesla drivers to charge quickly when needed, with the goal of making charging ubiquitous in urban centers. . . .”[

Of note: At the same time in the US, the VW’s Dieselgate scandal settlement begins to translated into a massive ultra-fast public charging network of its own, with work on hundreds of locations starting in the next 8 weeks. Each location will have at least 4 (and up to 10) charge points, with DCFC abilities ranging from 150 kW to 320 kW (details). . . .

Now we'll see how close either claim matches reality.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

scottf200
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Re: Tesla Supercharger Network

Mon Apr 24, 2017 8:00 pm

GRA wrote:
scottf200 wrote:
GRA wrote:I think it's fair to say nowhere near enough to even approach Elon's claim that U.S. SCs would be doubled this year (340 extant on Jan. 1st), as all of 16 have opened so far, including El Paso and Arlington, TX today, making 3 so far this month. Building SCs in places like Victor, NY is all well and good, but I-10/20/30/40/80 remain unfinished, as do I-5/15/25/35/55/65/75 and many of the routes to national parks, and in many cases SCs in the appropriate locations are not even known to be permitted as we close in on the summer vacation season.

Right but we really have no clue on the pace because this is just crowd sourced and in my example it had to be going on for a few weeks and no one knew anything.

Tesla Supercharging network is unbelievable impressive compared to everything else. Put *one* or *two* chargers for chademo or ccs when Tesla's are putting in 8 ore more with the new standard I heard at a Tesla meetup today is 10 minimum.

<snip>
Assuming that Tesla manages to complete another 4 U.S. SCs this month, that will give them 20 for the year. To reach Elon's claimed doubling (remember, 340 existing on 1/1/17) would require Tesla to complete an average of 40 U.S. SCs each month from May on, and IIRR they've never completed more than 16 in a single month, so to expect that they've got that many hidden away that none of the alert Tesla public knows about is (dare I say it) Ludicrous.

But what has seemed to escape you is that now the Model X is catching up to Model S sales and the planned Model 3 sales starting this summer and going up up up surpassing the Model X and S sales ... hence the need for more superchargers compared to the past and why they felt the need to increase the pace.
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GetOffYourGas
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Re: Tesla Supercharger Network

Tue Apr 25, 2017 6:00 am

scottf200 wrote:
Image


This map is incredible! The density in So Cal and the Northeast are almost unbelievable. This map alone makes the Leaf 2 (or the Bolt) a really hard sell to me.
~Brian

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dgpcolorado
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Re: Tesla Supercharger Network

Tue Apr 25, 2017 9:32 am

abasile wrote:I'm personally excited to see that Tesla intends to add California SCs near the San Bernardino Mountains and in the Mojave Desert:

San Bernardino - great for traveling from the SoCal megalopolis up to Big Bear, etc.

Baker - good pitstop along I-15, and southern gateway to Death Valley NP

Yermo - nice alternative to the Barstow SC site, particularly for those taking CA-58 <--> I-15 or CA-247 <--> I-15

Hesperia - perfect High Desert crossroads, helpful for I-15 travelers, CA-18 E/W travel, CA-395 to/from I-15, CA-138 to Crestline

In general, building out this network is going to help sell many more cars, IMHO.
In my travel corridors I'll be pleased to see the new locations on I-84 in Southern Idaho. Those will make roadtrips in my S60 a lot easier.

Closer to home, the ones at Poncha Springs CO and Alamosa CO will open up Great Sand Dunes National Park and create a backup route for I-70 when rock slides close Glenwood Canyon (the Supercharger Station planned for Steamboat Springs CO will also serve as a backup fo I-70).

And I am looking forward to Kayenta AZ to help with the direct route to Flagstaff, both rims of the Grand Canyon, and Monument Valley.

This new Supercharger Station plan makes S60s a lot more practical for long road trips, not that I haven't been doing 2000+ mile road trips in mine already.
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GetOffYourGas
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Re: Tesla Supercharger Network

Tue Apr 25, 2017 12:10 pm

dgpcolorado wrote:This new Supercharger Station plan makes S60s a lot more practical for long road trips


That makes perfect sense to me. Although they discontinued S60s, I suspect that the entry level Model 3s will have a similar range. So they are building their network with an eye towards future Model 3 owners. Model S / X owners are even better off since the majority will have longer range than Model 3s.
~Brian

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GRA
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Re: Tesla Supercharger Network

Tue Apr 25, 2017 6:14 pm

scottf200 wrote:
GRA wrote:
scottf200 wrote:Right but we really have no clue on the pace because this is just crowd sourced and in my example it had to be going on for a few weeks and no one knew anything.

Tesla Supercharging network is unbelievable impressive compared to everything else. Put *one* or *two* chargers for chademo or ccs when Tesla's are putting in 8 ore more with the new standard I heard at a Tesla meetup today is 10 minimum.

<snip>
Assuming that Tesla manages to complete another 4 U.S. SCs this month, that will give them 20 for the year. To reach Elon's claimed doubling (remember, 340 existing on 1/1/17) would require Tesla to complete an average of 40 U.S. SCs each month from May on, and IIRR they've never completed more than 16 in a single month, so to expect that they've got that many hidden away that none of the alert Tesla public knows about is (dare I say it) Ludicrous.

But what has seemed to escape you is that now the Model X is catching up to Model S sales and the planned Model 3 sales starting this summer and going up up up surpassing the Model X and S sales ... hence the need for more superchargers compared to the past and why they felt the need to increase the pace.

Seemed to escape me? You've got to be kidding. Here's my most recent comment on that subject, back just two pages in this topic:
To say this claim seems unlikely is almost a British level of understatement, as they are about at the same level of (U.S.) completions as last year 5 (4 in 2016) for January, 2 (2 in 2016) for February, when they completed 92 for the year. They do have more under construction this year, 9 rather than 3, although in both those cases one of them is Fremont #2 which has been dormant. Added to that is all the money they're going to have to spend on getting the Model 3 into production plus ramping up the Gigafactory, and you've got to wonder just how they expect to pay for a tripling of SC completions this year compared to their best performance to date (102 in 2015), never mind how they'd be able to build that many.

They obviously need to considerably increase the number of SCs to handle the Model 3s, but I suspect 150 in the U.S. this year would be a considerable accomplishment.
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=9111&p=486820&hilit=To+say+this+claim+seems+unlikely+is+almost+a+British#p486820
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

scottf200
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Re: Tesla Supercharger Network

Tue Apr 25, 2017 6:51 pm

GRA wrote:Seemed to escape me? You've got to be kidding. Here's my most recent comment on that subject, back just two pages in this topic:
To say this claim seems unlikely is almost a British level of understatement, as they are about at the same level of (U.S.) completions as last year 5 (4 in 2016) for January, 2 (2 in 2016) for February, when they completed 92 for the year. They do have more under construction this year, 9 rather than 3, although in both those cases one of them is Fremont #2 which has been dormant. Added to that is all the money they're going to have to spend on getting the Model 3 into production plus ramping up the Gigafactory, and you've got to wonder just how they expect to pay for a tripling of SC completions this year compared to their best performance to date (102 in 2015), never mind how they'd be able to build that many.

They obviously need to considerably increase the number of SCs to handle the Model 3s, but I suspect 150 in the U.S. this year would be a considerable accomplishment.
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=9111&p=486820&hilit=To+say+this+claim+seems+unlikely+is+almost+a+British#p486820

Yes, I do need to give you some credit in that general regard.

My point was that you are continuing to compare the past to this year and you don't appreciate how things are VERY different now and why it could easily happen now because their motivations are WAY different than the past ... that you ALWAYS use as examples of what WILL happen. Hope that helps clarify. Thanks for your continued interest.
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Volt = 53+ mile BEV up to 100 MPH, then 40 MPG hybrid with a 9 gal gas tank
RIP Tesla Model X P90DL - Sig:603 | 2011 Volt to kid | 2016 for wife | 2012 other kid

scottf200
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Re: Tesla Supercharger Network

Tue Apr 25, 2017 7:03 pm

GRA wrote:
scottf200 wrote:Love the views to/from my way to the trails. Heading to Glacier National Park, MT in the Model X in the near future.
<snip>
The Tesla FindUs ( https://www.tesla.com/findus ) map now has planned future (2017) SuperChargers on it. Here are the Montana ones (see GREY).
Glacier National Park is right between the top to grey pindrops.
Image

I saw that when they put up the 2017 map, and it's about damned time they provide access to Glacier. Here's hoping they actually build these before the summer vacation season rather than after, as happened with Jackson and several other N.P. access SCs over the past two years or so. I've been asking them for SCs on the approaches for about 3 years now, although Kalispell and Shelby are a bit far from the park and each other (although O.K. if they put some L2s inside) - I would have preferred West Glacier, Browning and/or St. Mary, and then there's the still idiotic location of the I-90 SC in Superior rather than St. Regis or somewhere west of it, imposing an entirely unnecessary 28 mile (round-trip) detour for eastbound I-90 travellers to Glacier. And this all assumes that they actually build them this year. IIRR, both the I-25 SCs and Kalispell as well as the I-94 SCs were on the 2016 map, and I-94 was also on the 2015 one. While I've often said that I think I-94 west of Fargo should be the very last segment of primary interstate to get SCs, the failure to provide convenient SC access to all of the major western national parks and monuments at a much earlier date has always struck me as a curious blindspot at Tesla.

Image
You make a good point. From Kalispell, MT to Shelby, MT is about 160 miles but that doesn't give you much extra going up and over some mountains where you only get 80ish % back on the regen. There are a BUNCH of campgrounds in those areas and remember that all the Tesla's come with a NEMA 14-50 4-prong 240v plug which RVs uses so there is little risk. In my case, I'm staying at a cabin that has an electric dryer so I'm using that plug.
100K EV miles and 80% EV usage
Volt = 53+ mile BEV up to 100 MPH, then 40 MPG hybrid with a 9 gal gas tank
RIP Tesla Model X P90DL - Sig:603 | 2011 Volt to kid | 2016 for wife | 2012 other kid

GRA
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Re: Tesla Supercharger Network

Tue Apr 25, 2017 7:28 pm

scottf200 wrote:
GRA wrote:I saw that when they put up the 2017 map, and it's about damned time they provide access to Glacier. Here's hoping they actually build these before the summer vacation season rather than after, as happened with Jackson and several other N.P. access SCs over the past two years or so. I've been asking them for SCs on the approaches for about 3 years now, although Kalispell and Shelby are a bit far from the park and each other (although O.K. if they put some L2s inside) - I would have preferred West Glacier, Browning and/or St. Mary, and then there's the still idiotic location of the I-90 SC in Superior rather than St. Regis or somewhere west of it, imposing an entirely unnecessary 28 mile (round-trip) detour for eastbound I-90 travellers to Glacier. And this all assumes that they actually build them this year. IIRR, both the I-25 SCs and Kalispell as well as the I-94 SCs were on the 2016 map, and I-94 was also on the 2015 one. While I've often said that I think I-94 west of Fargo should be the very last segment of primary interstate to get SCs, the failure to provide convenient SC access to all of the major western national parks and monuments at a much earlier date has always struck me as a curious blindspot at Tesla.

Image
You make a good point. From Kalispell, MT to Shelby, MT is about 160 miles but that doesn't give you much extra going up and over some mountains where you only get 80ish % back on the regen. There are a BUNCH of campgrounds in those areas and remember that all the Tesla's come with a NEMA 14-50 4-prong 240v plug which RVs uses so there is little risk. In my case, I'm staying at a cabin that has an electric dryer so I'm using that plug.

The biggest issue I'm concerned about is that most people going to Glacier will drive the Going-to-the-Sun Highway, and many will do the round trip starting from either end and either coming back the same way or looping around via U.S. 2. For instance, the loop from Kalispell through St. Mary to East Glacier and back to Kalispell is 202 mountainous miles, and while speeds are low inside the park, rain, use of heater or A/C and winds are all possibilities. Throw in some degradation and it strikes me as an opportunity for a lot of worried drivers, absent chargers inside the park. Not everyone wants to stay in RV parks, even assuming there are vacancies in the high season.

While the typical Model S/X owner isn't going to worry about the extra costs of staying somewhere expensive where there's a destination charger, Model 3 and Model Y owners are likely to be considerably down market income-wise. Admittedly, they've got a couple of years before that becomes a really serious problem at Glacier compared to say Yosemite, which has and will have a much larger Tesla customer base in a nearby metro area, but it remains an issue that needs looking after.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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