GRA
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Re: Tesla Supercharger Network

Wed Aug 01, 2018 6:35 pm

jlv wrote:
GRA wrote:I had some outdoorsy friends who recently completed a road trip from the Bay Area: I-5 to Ashland, OR, then cut over to U.S. 97 via Crater Lake and up through Peachland, Kelowna, Revelstoke, Golden and Lake Louise to Jasper NP in B.C., then back to Lake Louise, Waterton NP, Stanley ID then through SE Oregon (Steens Mtns.) and NE California (Warner Mtns) and back to the Bay Area; not sure whether they came down U.S. 395 to Reno and then I-80 or cut back over to I-5. If they had a Tesla the Leavenworth SC site (wasn't open yet) plus the 'coming soon' ones listed for Okanogan and Osoyoos would have been needed, plus several others that aren't even posited by Tesla as of yet.

Just the Bay Area to Jasper NP is over a 1300 mile trip. It's actually doable with an S100D using just SCs right now, although you'd need charging at the destination in order to make the return trip. With an X or smaller battery S you'd need longer SC stops as well as an additional stop to charge after Kamloops to reach all the way to Jasper NP.

Image


Yup, all they need is a $95k car to do a trip that any $15k ICE can do easily as well as faster.

jlv wrote:Alternately, with a 3 LR you'd be able shave almost an hour of charging time, but incur $65 in SC fees.
Image

But that's already an exceptional trip -- a fraction of 1% will every make such a trip.

Now we're down to only $49k, when the median LDV price is currently $36k, and the favorite vehicle type for such people are wagons or CUVs. Sure, such trips are a minority, but I and many of the people I know make many such trips, if not typically that far then to places just as far away from SCs and in many cases any other charging. I've driven to Colorado and back 3 times on such trips, to Wyoming once, Utah several times, Oregon, Washington and New Mexico, many of which remain impossible to do with SCs (e.g. there aren't any on U.S. 50 across Nevada). While active outdoorsy types are a small minority of car buyers, they have a very strong motivation to go ZEV for environmental reasons. They are a natural market which currently remains unserved because as of yet the cars and infrastructure can't get them where they want to go, at least not without designing the whole trip around the needs of the car and wasting a great amount of their precious free time waiting for the car to charge, in places they have no desire to be.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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jlv
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Re: Tesla Supercharger Network

Thu Aug 02, 2018 6:36 am

GRA wrote:Now we're down to only $49k,
:?
Then I'm not really sure why you posted about the trip in a thread about the Supercharger Network. Such trips - even beyond the edge of SC coverage today, are quite doable with what Tesla sells.

I keep seeing "best is the enemy of good enough" and really think that applies here.
LEAF '13 SL+Prem (mfg 12/13, leased 4/14, bought 5/17, sold 11/18) 34K mi, AHr 58, SOH 87%
Tesla S 75D (3/17) 29K mi
Tesla X 100D (ordered, 12/18 delivery) (replaced 3 reservation)

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EVDRIVER
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Re: Tesla Supercharger Network

Thu Aug 02, 2018 8:06 am

GRA wrote:[quote="j

Yup, all they need is a $95k car to do a trip that any $15k ICE can do easily as well as faster.

.


You can fly as well what's the point of that comparison? If the SC network was 4X the size non Tesla owners would still say it's inadequate. The great part as always is they can buy another EV like a LEAF or drive an ICE. You don't need a $95K Tesla to do this unless you want an X with a tow package to haul along a LEAF on a trailer.

GRA
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Re: Tesla Supercharger Network

Thu Aug 02, 2018 2:58 pm

jlv wrote:
GRA wrote:Now we're down to only $49k,
:?
Then I'm not really sure why you posted about the trip in a thread about the Supercharger Network. Such trips - even beyond the edge of SC coverage today, are quite doable with what Tesla sells.

I keep seeing "best is the enemy of good enough" and really think that applies here.

I posted because it's not yet good enough, and what needs to happen to make it so. Just being doable doesn't cut it. Tony Williams drove his LEAF BC to BC without any QCs in most of California, so we know that it's doable, but that doesn't make it a practical use of someone's time given the available options. If we all had unlimited amounts of free time and the ability spend as much money as necessary so that trip speed was irrelevant, peachy. That eliminates everyone who isn't retired and wealthy.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
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Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
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Re: Tesla Supercharger Network

Thu Aug 02, 2018 3:17 pm

EVDRIVER wrote:
GRA wrote:[quote="j

Yup, all they need is a $95k car to do a trip that any $15k ICE can do easily as well as faster.

.


You can fly as well what's the point of that comparison? If the SC network was 4X the size non Tesla owners would still say it's inadequate. The great part as always is they can buy another EV like a LEAF or drive an ICE. You don't need a $95K Tesla to do this unless you want an X with a tow package to haul along a LEAF on a trailer.

I wasn't the one who mentioned the S100D as making the trip relatively easy while shorter ranged Teslas required more effort.

Flying isn't an option if you wish to spend time in places along the way, as flying and renting repeatedly is both expensive and inconvenient, even assuming you can fly and rent in some of the areas. Whether or not the SC network would be inadequate if it were 4x the size depends critically on the design intent that drives the choice of locations.

For example, it's possible to cover the entire primary interstate system with around 250 SCs at no more than about 100 mile spacing, given reasonably optimal placement. The interstate system is currently 46,876 miles, but that includes secondary interstates which are urban and usually too short to need SCs along them; for the sake or argument, let's say there are 45k miles of primary interstate. So, how could we provide 100 mile legs with only 250 SCs? There are between 160 and 180* interstate junctions of between 2 and 5 interstates, so every SC at such a junction counts multiple times. The extra 70 to 90 SCs are for the longer legs between junctions, primarily located west of the Mississippi. Another 250 SCs would cover most U.S. and state highways that are long enough to need them.

Local SCs for urban users are a very different matter - they need numbers in a similar order of magnitude to gas stations, and it's notable that the majority of SC built this year in the U.S. have been located to serve urban users rather than enabling road trips.


*The variability in the number depends on whether you count offset junctions as 1 or 2. Some are so close together they should probably be treated as a single, while others are far enough apart that they should count twice. One night when I was bored and looking for something to do I counted them.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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EVDRIVER
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Re: Tesla Supercharger Network

Thu Aug 02, 2018 4:14 pm

GRA wrote:
jlv wrote:
GRA wrote:Now we're down to only $49k,
:?
Then I'm not really sure why you posted about the trip in a thread about the Supercharger Network. Such trips - even beyond the edge of SC coverage today, are quite doable with what Tesla sells.

I keep seeing "best is the enemy of good enough" and really think that applies here.

I posted because it's not yet good enough, and what needs to happen to make it so. Just being doable doesn't cut it. Tony Williams drove his LEAF BC to BC without any QCs in most of California, so we know that it's doable, but that doesn't make it a practical use of someone's time given the available options. If we all had unlimited amounts of free time and the ability spend as much money as necessary so that trip speed was irrelevant, peachy. That eliminates everyone who isn't retired and wealthy.


Yes it is doable but not like driving a LEAF doable as you mentioned, it's not like it's poor and will never change. Regardless the SC network is very impressive, anyone that has used it widely knows this. I just can't find any reason to complain about it as it has been operating and progressing in general. No other EV can do these type of trips without long waits and the possibility of an outage.

Additionally, many of the DC stations that say they are 50kw put out 30-45 kw if you are lucky and that's without sharing. Those charging $ by the min are really cheating their customers which explains why EVGo has a arbitration clause in their user agreement, they could care less if you get 30 or 50 and good luck resolving that with them unless you want to hear a handful of scripted excuses:) If you pay on a Tesla SC you get what you pay for. Also noting like paying for a tapered charge per min...

GRA
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Re: Tesla Supercharger Network

Thu Aug 02, 2018 4:21 pm

EVDRIVER wrote:
GRA wrote:
jlv wrote: :?
Then I'm not really sure why you posted about the trip in a thread about the Supercharger Network. Such trips - even beyond the edge of SC coverage today, are quite doable with what Tesla sells.

I keep seeing "best is the enemy of good enough" and really think that applies here.

I posted because it's not yet good enough, and what needs to happen to make it so. Just being doable doesn't cut it. Tony Williams drove his LEAF BC to BC without any QCs in most of California, so we know that it's doable, but that doesn't make it a practical use of someone's time given the available options. If we all had unlimited amounts of free time and the ability spend as much money as necessary so that trip speed was irrelevant, peachy. That eliminates everyone who isn't retired and wealthy.


Yes it is doable but not like driving a LEAF doable as you mentioned, it's not like it's poor and will never change. Regardless the SC network is very impressive, anyone that has used it widely knows this.

The issue is not whether or not the SC network is impressive where it is (I've said numerous times that Tesla has done far more than any other manufacturer to make BEVs viable for trips), it's whether or not it exists where you want or need it. For active outdoorsy types, the answer in most cases is still 'No'. This is due to a lack of emphasis by Tesla.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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EVDRIVER
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Re: Tesla Supercharger Network

Thu Aug 02, 2018 4:32 pm

GRA wrote:
EVDRIVER wrote:
GRA wrote:I posted because it's not yet good enough, and what needs to happen to make it so. Just being doable doesn't cut it. Tony Williams drove his LEAF BC to BC without any QCs in most of California, so we know that it's doable, but that doesn't make it a practical use of someone's time given the available options. If we all had unlimited amounts of free time and the ability spend as much money as necessary so that trip speed was irrelevant, peachy. That eliminates everyone who isn't retired and wealthy.


Yes it is doable but not like driving a LEAF doable as you mentioned, it's not like it's poor and will never change. Regardless the SC network is very impressive, anyone that has used it widely knows this.

The issue is not whether or not the SC network is impressive where it is (I've said numerous times that Tesla has done far more than any other manufacturer to make BEVs viable for trips), it's whether or not it exists where you want or need it. For active outdoorsy types, the answer in most cases is still 'No'. This is due to a lack of emphasis by Tesla.


Do you expect it to just remain stagnant and not grow or do you expect it to be fully developed in a week? Probably not as both are unrealistic and of course it will improve and it has been at a good rate. On the other hand DC QC is a joke in places and still moving slow and unreliable. Not sure I get any point here other than it's not perfect, it's Tesla, so it must be flawed. Besides those without Teslas seem to be the big volume commentators of systems they don't use and cars they don't drive. I'm sure the SC network will soon pease most peoples needs in some manner.

GRA
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Re: Tesla Supercharger Network

Thu Aug 02, 2018 4:40 pm

EVDRIVER wrote:Do you expect it to just remain stagnant and not grow or do you expect it to be fully developed in a week? Probably not as both are unrealistic and of course it will improve and it has been at a good rate. On the other hand DC QC is a joke in places and still moving slow and unreliable. Not sure I get any point here other than it's not perfect, it's Tesla, so it must be flawed. Besides those without Teslas seem to be the big volume commentators of systems they don't use and cars they don't drive. I'm sure the SC network will soon pease most peoples needs in some manner.

What I expect is that Tesla will continue to announce SCs are 'coming soon' in areas where they are needed, and continue to fail to build them over a period extending several years in some cases (e.g. I-94). This is an entirely unnecessary, self-inflicted wound, disappointing potential (and in some cases existing) customers and damaging Tesla's credibility.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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EVDRIVER
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Re: Tesla Supercharger Network

Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:03 pm

GRA wrote:
EVDRIVER wrote:Do you expect it to just remain stagnant and not grow or do you expect it to be fully developed in a week? Probably not as both are unrealistic and of course it will improve and it has been at a good rate. On the other hand DC QC is a joke in places and still moving slow and unreliable. Not sure I get any point here other than it's not perfect, it's Tesla, so it must be flawed. Besides those without Teslas seem to be the big volume commentators of systems they don't use and cars they don't drive. I'm sure the SC network will soon pease most peoples needs in some manner.

What I expect is that Tesla will continue to announce SCs are 'coming soon' in areas where they are needed, and continue to fail to build them over a period extending several years in some cases (e.g. I-94). This is an entirely unnecessary, self-inflicted wound, disappointing potential (and in some cases existing) customers and damaging Tesla's credibility.


You know they do this only to upset LEAF owners. I read that somewhere.

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