DougWantsALeaf
Posts: 286
Joined: Fri May 10, 2013 8:21 pm
Delivery Date: 18 May 2013
Leaf Number: 407811
Location: Chicago North Side

Re: Gen2 multiple battery size guesses.

Mon Jan 27, 2014 2:55 pm

My hope is that they don't hold out too long, trying to drive profits from the current leaf, and come late to the game with innovation. Call it the blackberry syndrome.
2013 SV Black
Miles: 17500
Average Carwings/Dash Efficiency: 4.5-6.5M/KWh (summer) ~2.8-3.9 winter
100 Mile Club Member (Number 87), Max distance 120 miles

kubel
Posts: 1605
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2012 11:38 am
Leaf Number: 19628
Location: Southeast Michigan

Re: Gen2 multiple battery size guesses.

Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:38 pm

My prediction:

2014 - LEAF sales taper off as poor economic news reduces gas prices.

2015 - No LEAF design changes. Brown color option added. Minor tweak to battery chemistry to address degradation. $200 price increase.

2016 - CHAdeMO standard dies. Design refresh with Frankenplug. 28kWh battery pack, different module format. $800 price increase. Previous model year with old 24kWh pack produced parallel to refreshed model as "2016 Nissan LEAF Select" until they use up all of the old batteries, $1000 price drop on the "Select".

2017 - Tesla releases Model E, $42,000 MSRP. Nissan LEAF price drops $600, no changes to design or battery options. Nissan LEAF Select discontinued.

2018 - Tesla Model E metal-air hybird battery shows major degradation for people who commute long distances. Class action lawsuit against Tesla. Wireless charging standardized for LEAF. LEAF price unchanged. No other changes to design or battery.

2019 - Tesla stock plummets as class action lawsuit against Tesla explodes. Nissan LEAF gets minor design refresh and 40kWh battery pack, still well below Model E, but battery is reliable.

2020 - SpaceX mines unobtainium from asteroids, game changer ultra capacitor is unveiled using new material. No degradation. Low self-discharge. Resilient in all climates. 5-minute recharging. Double the capacity and half the cost of traditional batteries. Tesla gets exclusive rights to technology.

2025 - Tesla buys Google.
2012 Nissan LEAF SV
20% degradation in 42k miles
Leased 5-17-2012, Returned 1-15-2016


2017 Chevy Volt LT
Siren Red Tintcoat
Leased 10-21-2016

like2bike
Posts: 30
Joined: Sat Mar 23, 2013 9:35 pm
Delivery Date: 19 Mar 2013
Leaf Number: 00581
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: Gen2 multiple battery size guesses.

Sun Jan 01, 2017 2:40 pm

kubel wrote:My prediction:

2014 - LEAF sales taper off as poor economic news reduces gas prices.

2015 - No LEAF design changes. Brown color option added. Minor tweak to battery chemistry to address degradation. $200 price increase.

2016 - CHAdeMO standard dies. Design refresh with Frankenplug. 28kWh battery pack, different module format. $800 price increase. Previous model year with old 24kWh pack produced parallel to refreshed model as "2016 Nissan LEAF Select" until they use up all of the old batteries, $1000 price drop on the "Select".

2017 - Tesla releases Model E, $42,000 MSRP. Nissan LEAF price drops $600, no changes to design or battery options. Nissan LEAF Select discontinued.

2018 - Tesla Model E metal-air hybird battery shows major degradation for people who commute long distances. Class action lawsuit against Tesla. Wireless charging standardized for LEAF. LEAF price unchanged. No other changes to design or battery.

2019 - Tesla stock plummets as class action lawsuit against Tesla explodes. Nissan LEAF gets minor design refresh and 40kWh battery pack, still well below Model E, but battery is reliable.

2020 - SpaceX mines unobtainium from asteroids, game changer ultra capacitor is unveiled using new material. No degradation. Low self-discharge. Resilient in all climates. 5-minute recharging. Double the capacity and half the cost of traditional batteries. Tesla gets exclusive rights to technology.

2025 - Tesla buys Google.


Pretty good predictions. Model 3/E still slated for 2017, but that's an EM prediction, lol. $42,000 is probably what buyers will be paying in 2018. You missed the Bolt, but no one saw that one coming so fast. I wish they'd dump CHAdeMO, maybe for gen 2. The Bolt seems like it will force the gen 2 to show up in late 2017, maybe with a 40KWH battery. They won't have commercial quantities of unobtainium until at least 2024 however, lol.
2013 Leaf S on Long Island, NY
Delivered 3/18/2013, bought off-lease 2/20/2016 $9619
Schneider EVlink level 2 charging

like2bike
Posts: 30
Joined: Sat Mar 23, 2013 9:35 pm
Delivery Date: 19 Mar 2013
Leaf Number: 00581
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: Gen2 multiple battery size guesses.

Sun Jan 01, 2017 2:41 pm

I would be very happy with a 40 KWH battery. I'd be ready to take a break by the time a 40 KWH battery needed charge anyhoo. I hate having to stop long before I need a break. For a very long trip the time spent charging is going to be largely determined by the QC charge rate, assuming plenty of available, convenient L3 stations. The 40 KWH battery will greatly improve the inconvenient spacing of the L3 stations I have suffered with while touring.

Based on my experience touring with the 24 KWH LEAF, I think we really need a battery TMS. The battery gets scary hot on a 200+ mile trip in summer even in the NE.
2013 Leaf S on Long Island, NY
Delivered 3/18/2013, bought off-lease 2/20/2016 $9619
Schneider EVlink level 2 charging

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