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Re: Gen2 multiple battery size guesses.

Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2014 2:55 pm
by DougWantsALeaf
My hope is that they don't hold out too long, trying to drive profits from the current leaf, and come late to the game with innovation. Call it the blackberry syndrome.

Re: Gen2 multiple battery size guesses.

Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:38 pm
by kubel
My prediction:

2014 - LEAF sales taper off as poor economic news reduces gas prices.

2015 - No LEAF design changes. Brown color option added. Minor tweak to battery chemistry to address degradation. $200 price increase.

2016 - CHAdeMO standard dies. Design refresh with Frankenplug. 28kWh battery pack, different module format. $800 price increase. Previous model year with old 24kWh pack produced parallel to refreshed model as "2016 Nissan LEAF Select" until they use up all of the old batteries, $1000 price drop on the "Select".

2017 - Tesla releases Model E, $42,000 MSRP. Nissan LEAF price drops $600, no changes to design or battery options. Nissan LEAF Select discontinued.

2018 - Tesla Model E metal-air hybird battery shows major degradation for people who commute long distances. Class action lawsuit against Tesla. Wireless charging standardized for LEAF. LEAF price unchanged. No other changes to design or battery.

2019 - Tesla stock plummets as class action lawsuit against Tesla explodes. Nissan LEAF gets minor design refresh and 40kWh battery pack, still well below Model E, but battery is reliable.

2020 - SpaceX mines unobtainium from asteroids, game changer ultra capacitor is unveiled using new material. No degradation. Low self-discharge. Resilient in all climates. 5-minute recharging. Double the capacity and half the cost of traditional batteries. Tesla gets exclusive rights to technology.

2025 - Tesla buys Google.

Re: Gen2 multiple battery size guesses.

Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2017 2:40 pm
by like2bike
kubel wrote:My prediction:

2014 - LEAF sales taper off as poor economic news reduces gas prices.

2015 - No LEAF design changes. Brown color option added. Minor tweak to battery chemistry to address degradation. $200 price increase.

2016 - CHAdeMO standard dies. Design refresh with Frankenplug. 28kWh battery pack, different module format. $800 price increase. Previous model year with old 24kWh pack produced parallel to refreshed model as "2016 Nissan LEAF Select" until they use up all of the old batteries, $1000 price drop on the "Select".

2017 - Tesla releases Model E, $42,000 MSRP. Nissan LEAF price drops $600, no changes to design or battery options. Nissan LEAF Select discontinued.

2018 - Tesla Model E metal-air hybird battery shows major degradation for people who commute long distances. Class action lawsuit against Tesla. Wireless charging standardized for LEAF. LEAF price unchanged. No other changes to design or battery.

2019 - Tesla stock plummets as class action lawsuit against Tesla explodes. Nissan LEAF gets minor design refresh and 40kWh battery pack, still well below Model E, but battery is reliable.

2020 - SpaceX mines unobtainium from asteroids, game changer ultra capacitor is unveiled using new material. No degradation. Low self-discharge. Resilient in all climates. 5-minute recharging. Double the capacity and half the cost of traditional batteries. Tesla gets exclusive rights to technology.

2025 - Tesla buys Google.


Pretty good predictions. Model 3/E still slated for 2017, but that's an EM prediction, lol. $42,000 is probably what buyers will be paying in 2018. You missed the Bolt, but no one saw that one coming so fast. I wish they'd dump CHAdeMO, maybe for gen 2. The Bolt seems like it will force the gen 2 to show up in late 2017, maybe with a 40KWH battery. They won't have commercial quantities of unobtainium until at least 2024 however, lol.

Re: Gen2 multiple battery size guesses.

Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2017 2:41 pm
by like2bike
I would be very happy with a 40 KWH battery. I'd be ready to take a break by the time a 40 KWH battery needed charge anyhoo. I hate having to stop long before I need a break. For a very long trip the time spent charging is going to be largely determined by the QC charge rate, assuming plenty of available, convenient L3 stations. The 40 KWH battery will greatly improve the inconvenient spacing of the L3 stations I have suffered with while touring.

Based on my experience touring with the 24 KWH LEAF, I think we really need a battery TMS. The battery gets scary hot on a 200+ mile trip in summer even in the NE.