GRA
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Re: Tesla's autopilot, on the road

Mon Oct 10, 2016 7:51 pm

Via ABG:
Tesla's Autopilot facing new criticism at home and abroad
Will Tesla be forced to rename its semi-autonomous technology?
http://www.autoblog.com/2016/10/08/tesl ... a-germany/

Tesla's semi-autonomous Autopilot feature has had another rough week following criticism both at home and abroad. Starting in its home state of California, AutoGuide reports that Tesla was issued a cease and desist request regarding how it advertises its features. A new law in the state now forbids car companies from advertising driver assist features using the terms such as "self-driving," "automated" or "auto-pilot" unless the car is classified as Level 3, 4 or 5 under SAE guidelines.

Those last three levels of automation all describe vehicles that can be operated fully autonomously and unsupervised in at least some, if not all, conditions. California currently classifies Autopilot-equipped Teslas as Level 2, which describes cars that still require human supervision while operating autonomously. As a result, Tesla may have to rename the Autopilot function, at least for California. This isn't the first time the naming scheme has been criticized, as Consumer Reports previously urged the company to change the name following a lethal crash.

Autopilot is also facing scrutiny in Germany. According to Reuters, German magazine Der Spiegel found an internal government document criticizing a number of inadequacies in the Autopilot system. German testers found that the sensors on a Model S did not have enough range to execute safe overtaking, which is serious business on unrestricted autobahns. Testers also found Tesla's emergency braking to be lackluster. . . .
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

finman100
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Re: Tesla's autopilot, on the road

Tue Oct 11, 2016 1:47 pm

I do wonder why the Germans are so worried about anything Tesla. Oh, that's right, they are eating their lunch in several of their car segments. Actually serving it to them, then eating it too.

This is all very stupid. Your level of stupidness may vary.

Let's see just how dumbed down technology has to be for the masses. Wait, that's too low to introduce ANY product. Oh, it's an iPad, why doesn't my ballpoint pen show up and why is my screen all scratched. It's a pad, right?

Give me a break.

As if ICE mfgs have ANY incentive to produce meaningful sustainable transport. Let's just poke Tesla until we have our market share back and they go away. Yep, that'll work. (sarcasm)

good luck and Go Elon!
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TimLee
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Re: Tesla's autopilot, on the road

Thu Oct 13, 2016 7:47 am

finman100 wrote:...good luck and Go Elon!

Maybe he could go forward a little more responsibly :?: :o :shock:

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GRA
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Re: Tesla's autopilot, on the road

Thu Oct 13, 2016 4:54 pm

An article from GCR pointing out Elon's use of "Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics" when talking about Autopilot's safety 'increase':
How safe is Tesla Autopilot? Parsing the statistics (as suggested by Elon Musk)
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/110 ... -elon-musk

. . . Apples vs oranges

Sample size notwithstanding, Tesla’s statistical claims also suffer from the old apples-vs-oranges conundrum. The NHTSA number that Musk presumably used to derive his one-fatality-every-94 million-mile benchmark is the Fatality Rate per 100 Million VMT (Vehicle Miles Traveled). For the last few years, that number has hovered a bit above 1.00, which translates to a miles-per-fatality number a bit under 100 million.

This traffic fatality number from the agency, however, happens to include bicycles, motorcycles, pedestrians, 18-wheelers and buses. In fact, only 36 percent of the “traffic fatalities” listed by NHTSA in 2015 were occupants of passenger cars. (Another 28 percent were classified as light trucks, most of them presumably SUVs and pick-ups.) Tesla’s statistical comparison essentially equates the Florida Autopilot crash fatality with a pedestrian being run over by a bus. This is apples-vs-aardvarks.

Because of these glaring representative-sample flaws, Tesla’s comparison “has no meaning,” according to Alain Kornhauser a Princeton transportation professor, quoted in MIT Technology Review.

Another professor, Bryant Walker Smith of the University of South Carolina, told Tech Review that comparing Autopilot miles to population-wide statistics was “ludicrous on the face of it. . . .”

The IIHS rated the cars in terms of driver deaths per million vehicle-years. Passenger deaths didn’t count. (A vehicle-year is a measure of exposure to risk: one vehicle on the road for one year.) The average for all 146 makes and models rated was 28 driver deaths per million vehicle-years, with a confidence range of 27 to 30.

(Confidence range is the range within which there is a 95-percent chance that the number is accurate. The higher the number of cars in the sample size, the tighter the confidence range.)

The IIHS’s figure is a much better number than NHTSA’s to compare with Tesla’s numbers for Autopilot driving. No bicycles, no 18-wheelers, no passengers or pedestrians. And a fairly tight window of confidence, based on the huge exposure of 63 million vehicle-years.

If we assume 12,000 miles per vehicle-year—the generally accepted figure—the IIHS number works out to 28 driver fatalities per 12 billion miles. That’s one driver fatality for every 428 million miles driven. Suddenly, the Autopilot Model S number that Tesla was bragging about last June—one death in 130 million miles—looks downright terrible.

By the IIHS yardstick, the Autopilot Tesla is more than three times as dangerous as a typical passenger vehicle, even with all the advantages cited above. . . .

And so on. Hopefully we can now all agree to consign Elon's claim based on 'statistics' to the realm of tabloid journalism ("Scientists detect huge human face on Mars") where it belongs.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

edatoakrun
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Re: Tesla's autopilot, on the road

Fri Oct 14, 2016 10:29 am

Problem solved...

Germany sends Tesla drivers Autopilot warning letter

BERLIN -- Germany is warning owners of Tesla vehicles that the use of the Autopilot function in their electric cars requires the driver's unrestricted attention at all times.

The Federal Motor Authority told Tesla owners in a letter that the Autopilot function is purely a driver assistance system and not a highly-automated vehicle that can be operated without the driver's constant attention...

http://www.autonews.com/article/2016101 ... ing-letter
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pchilds
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Re: Tesla's autopilot, on the road

Fri Oct 14, 2016 11:28 am

edatoakrun wrote:Problem solved...

Germany sends Tesla drivers Autopilot warning letter

BERLIN -- Germany is warning owners of Tesla vehicles that the use of the Autopilot function in their electric cars requires the driver's unrestricted attention at all times.

The Federal Motor Authority told Tesla owners in a letter that the Autopilot function is purely a driver assistance system and not a highly-automated vehicle that can be operated without the driver's constant attention...

http://www.autonews.com/article/2016101 ... ing-letter


So, all Tesla needs to do is send out a letter? :lol:
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edatoakrun
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Re: Tesla's autopilot, on the road

Fri Oct 14, 2016 12:52 pm

GRA wrote:An article from GCR pointing out Elon's use of "Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics" when talking about Autopilot's safety 'increase':
How safe is Tesla Autopilot? Parsing the statistics (as suggested by Elon Musk)
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/110 ... -elon-musk
...

A statistical analysis posted on the Tesla forum, comes to another conclusion...

...9x more fatalities per mile on Autopilot

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... 774/page-4
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RegGuheert
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Re: Tesla's autopilot, on the road

Sat Oct 15, 2016 4:18 am

edatoakrun wrote: A statistical analysis posted on the Tesla forum, comes to another conclusion...

...9x more fatalities per mile on Autopilot

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... 774/page-4
Note that is versus Teslas without Autopilot engaged, not versus the general fleet of automobiles on the road.
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edatoakrun
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Re: Tesla's autopilot, on the road

Sat Oct 15, 2016 7:59 am

RegGuheert wrote:
edatoakrun wrote: A statistical analysis posted on the Tesla forum, comes to another conclusion...

...9x more fatalities per mile on Autopilot

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... 774/page-4
Note that is versus Teslas without Autopilot engaged, not versus the general fleet of automobiles on the road.

Which, of course (the multiple other questions about methodology, aside) would be exactly the statistics you would want to compare, to determine if Autopilot use either increased or decreased fatality rates per mile driven.
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RegGuheert
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Re: Tesla's autopilot, on the road

Sat Oct 15, 2016 8:16 am

edatoakrun wrote:Which, of course (the multiple other questions about methodology, aside) would be exactly the statistics you would want to compare, to determine if Autopilot use either increased or decreased fatality rates per mile driven.
No argument.
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