TimLee
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Re: Tesla's autopilot, on the road

Wed Jul 13, 2016 10:22 pm

abasile wrote:... But even if AutoPilot succeeds in greatly reducing accidents and fatalities compared to human-only driving, the media and the public will probably continue to be very exacting when accidents do occur.

Agree with all of your statements abasile.

From the data to date Tesla AutoPilot has increased safety.

From my past experience while changing jobs and making long drives while extremely drowsey, it would have been much safer.

It is surprising how readily we in the USA tolerate huge numbers of deaths from distracted driving and the huge numbers of guns in the USA (and to a large extent revel and are proud of the freedom demonstrated by both), but a new technology will be scrutinized for each and every failure.

A lot is expected of automation.
There are still some serious injuries from elevators and escalators.
Not very many compared to distracted driving and firearms.

But each and every one receives massive focus.

We expect automation to be 99.99% error free.

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cwerdna
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Re: Tesla's autopilot, on the road

Wed Jul 13, 2016 10:45 pm

Thanks to "TMC"...

Joshua Brown's family hires law firm - attorney claims more accident victims coming forward:
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/joshua-browns-family-hires-law-firm-attorney-claims-more-accident-victims-coming-forward.73365/

The above points to http://fortune.com/2016/07/11/tesla-autopilot-joshua-brown/. The law firm claims they're just investigating on behalf of the family but they also say the family hasn't ruled out the possibility of suing Tesla either.

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RegGuheert
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Re: Tesla's autopilot, on the road

Thu Jul 14, 2016 3:03 am

TimLee wrote:From the data to date Tesla AutoPilot has increased safety.
I do not think we can make such an assessment using the data we have to date. Here are some confounding issues:

1) Autopiliot is not engaged during all phases of driving. In fact, it is likely engaged ONLY during the easiest driving tasks. I doubt that accident data exists for ONLY this phase of driving in normal cars. Instead, data from normal cars includes accidents during ALL phases of driving, including the most challenging phases.

2) Tesla has released a constant stream of updates to the autopilot software in the field. Some (most?) of these updates include UPGRADES that add new features. Since some of these upgrades include the ability to drive in more challenging conditions or to execute more difficult maneuvers, it is statistically invalid to discuss ALL autopilot miles ever driven and assume (or imply) that the safety record for ALL miles applies to the features in the latest releases which have not seen that many miles.

3) When driving in autopilot mode, Tesla makes the driver warrant that THEY are responsible for driving the car. In other words, the driving record for operation of Tesla cars in autopilot mode applies to the HUMAN drivers, not the robot driver. Tesla cannot have their cake and eat it, too. If they do not accept the liability for the accidents, they also do not get the credit for safe driving.

4) The Tesla Model S is larger AND safer than most vehicles on the highway. As a result, the number of fatalities that result from accidents while in autopilot mode should be lower than those that result from the overall fleet of all cars on the road.

Simply put, for Tesla to claim that autopilot is safer than human driving is simply an example of how one can lie with statistics.
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keydiver
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Re: Tesla's autopilot, on the road

Thu Jul 14, 2016 6:45 am

GRA wrote:To me, this is just damning for Tesla, and out of their own mouths. Why on earth would they even let Auto-Pilot be engaged on a road that they say it's unsuitable for, at night yet, and then let the car drive itself for "over two minutes' with no hands-on detected? They deserve to get seriously spanked by NHTSA/lawsuits on this, as it's completely irresponsible behavior. People will do stupid stuff, but that doesn't mean you have to enable them to do so, when you possess the means to prevent it.


Wow, I hope that kind of thinking just stays in the biggest nanny-city in the biggest nanny-state. When some idiot refuses to take the wheel, even when prompted to do so by his Tesla, on a winding canyon road, at 5 mph over the speed limit, that is HIS fault alone, not Tesla's. If your kind of thinking would prevail, our cars would all be electronically limited to 55 mph, locked into one lane, with no lane changes allowed, and follow other cars at the proper 2 second interval, because its "for your safety".
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edatoakrun
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Re: Tesla's autopilot, on the road

Thu Jul 14, 2016 7:34 am

Not a great fan of CR myself, but in this case, I generally agree with their conclusions.


Tesla's Autopilot: Too Much Autonomy Too Soon


Consumer Reports calls for Tesla to disable hands-free operation until its system can be made safer


...Consumer Reports experts believe that these two messages—your vehicle can drive itself, but you may need to take over the controls at a moment’s notice—create potential for driver confusion. It also increases the possibility that drivers using Autopilot may not be engaged enough to to react quickly to emergency situations. Many automakers are introducing this type of semi-autonomous technology into their vehicles at a rapid pace, but Tesla has been uniquely aggressive in its deployment. It is the only manufacturer that allows drivers to take their hands off the wheel for significant periods of time, and the fatal crash has brought the potential risks into sharp relief.

"By marketing their feature as ‘Autopilot,’ Tesla gives consumers a false sense of security," says Laura MacCleery, vice president of consumer policy and mobilization for Consumer Reports. "In the long run, advanced active safety technologies in vehicles could make our roads safer. But today, we're deeply concerned that consumers are being sold a pile of promises about unproven technology...

http://www.consumerreports.org/tesla/te ... -too-soon/
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GRA
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Re: Tesla's autopilot, on the road

Thu Jul 14, 2016 2:24 pm

keydiver wrote:
GRA wrote:To me, this is just damning for Tesla, and out of their own mouths. Why on earth would they even let Auto-Pilot be engaged on a road that they say it's unsuitable for, at night yet, and then let the car drive itself for "over two minutes' with no hands-on detected? They deserve to get seriously spanked by NHTSA/lawsuits on this, as it's completely irresponsible behavior. People will do stupid stuff, but that doesn't mean you have to enable them to do so, when you possess the means to prevent it.

Wow, I hope that kind of thinking just stays in the biggest nanny-city in the biggest nanny-state. When some idiot refuses to take the wheel, even when prompted to do so by his Tesla, on a winding canyon road, at 5 mph over the speed limit, that is HIS fault alone, not Tesla's. If your kind of thinking would prevail, our cars would all be electronically limited to 55 mph, locked into one lane, with no lane changes allowed, and follow other cars at the proper 2 second interval, because its "for your safety".

I'm the last person to desire a nanny state, as I do many things that a nanny state wouldn't allow me to do, 'for my own safety'. But autonomous driving is a case where not just the safety of the car's occupants may be involved, but other people as well. ISTM that Tesla is trying to have it both ways - on the one hand, they cite a death rate (so far) while using autopilot of 1/130 million miles, which they say is an improvement on the human rate. Fine (we'll ignore the fact that's an overall death rate, rather than one specific to class of car, owner demographic, location etc.). They appear to be attempting to claim that while the car is under the control of autopilot, it is responsible for an increase in safety, but any accidents caused by autopilot (which probably wouldn't occur if the driver were driving the car) are solely the driver's responsibility. Heads they win, tails you lose.

To reiterate, I believe the only morally acceptable attitude is that stated by Daimler and Volvo: If the car crashes while driving itself, the responsibility is theirs, and unless/until they are willing to accept that responsibility, they simply won't sell a car capable of doing so to the general public. Incremental steps are called for here, owing to the huge potential for a negative backlash by a public that is very leery (rightly so, at the moment) of turning over life or death decision-making power to computers. Accidents along the way to full autonomy are to be expected, but that doesn't excuse irresponsibly risking the lives of the general public by having them beta test safety-critical systems.

While I'm a frequent, often scathing critic of our tort system, which seemingly seeks to deny any personal responsibility for our own stupidity that brings about injury to ourselves, in this case I suspect that it (if not the government) will soon put the legal responsibility for auto accidents while under autonomous control exactly where it belongs, with the manufacturers. Not the occupants, not the software or hardware companies who might have supplied the equipment, but with the people who assembled and tested the system and sold it to the general public, asserting that it's safer than humans.

BTW, the most enjoyable, stress-free period of interstate driving I ever had was about an hour on I-505/I-5, back in the '80s. An informal convoy of 5 or 6 cars had formed, all of us maintaining safe following distances, keeping a constant speed, staying in the right lane except when passing and maintaining safe passing distances while doing so, using our mirrors and signals, making smooth lane changes, and generally driving predictably rather than impulsively, showing consideration for everyone on the road rather than just ourselves. In short, I could trust these people not to do anything stupid, and they could trust me likewise. Of course, we still had the national 55 mph limit then, but we were safely and comfortably cruising at 85 the whole time. Quite a change from the typical mix of drivers, who (to quote my dad's favorite comment when he saw someone driving unsafely and putting others at risk) must have got their licenses out of a Sear's Roebuck catalog.
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GRA
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Re: Tesla's autopilot, on the road

Thu Jul 14, 2016 2:46 pm

TimLee wrote:
abasile wrote:... But even if AutoPilot succeeds in greatly reducing accidents and fatalities compared to human-only driving, the media and the public will probably continue to be very exacting when accidents do occur.

Agree with all of your statements abasile.

From the data to date Tesla AutoPilot has increased safety.

From my past experience while changing jobs and making long drives while extremely drowsey, it would have been much safer.

It is surprising how readily we in the USA tolerate huge numbers of deaths from distracted driving and the huge numbers of guns in the USA (and to a large extent revel and are proud of the freedom demonstrated by both), but a new technology will be scrutinized for each and every failure.

A lot is expected of automation.
There are still some serious injuries from elevators and escalators.
Not very many compared to distracted driving and firearms.

But each and every one receives massive focus.

We expect automation to be 99.99% error free.

For safety of life critical function systems we generally require a lot higher than that - anywhere from 6 to 9 nines , i.e. 99.9999 to 99.9999999%.

Here's an example for aviation electronic flight critical systems, " SYSTEM SAFETY ANALYSIS AND ASSESSMENT FOR
PART 23 AIRPLANES", rated in acceptable failures per flight hour (see chart page 23, 'Catastrophic' failure column): http://www.faa.gov/documentLibrary/medi ... 309-1E.pdf
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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LTLFTcomposite
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Re: Tesla's autopilot, on the road

Thu Jul 14, 2016 3:26 pm

we'll ignore the fact that's an overall death rate, rather than one specific to class of car, owner demographic, location etc

Just curious, would you otherwise have expected a higher or lower death rate among the group that drives Teslas had Teslas never existed?
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finman100
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Re: Tesla's autopilot, on the road

Thu Jul 14, 2016 3:28 pm

yeah, that makes sense. 85 MPH in a 55 MPH zone and you are the safe one, breaking the laws the rest of the population operate under. Jesus, we are a stupid species. "Not my fault, I was speeding AND being safe. See, nothing happened." this time...
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GRA
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Re: Tesla's autopilot, on the road

Thu Jul 14, 2016 3:47 pm

LTLFTcomposite wrote:
we'll ignore the fact that's an overall death rate, rather than one specific to class of car, owner demographic, location etc

Just curious, would you otherwise have expected a higher or lower death rate among the group that drives Teslas had Teslas never existed?

No idea, the demographics could run either way. Luxury car owners are generally older and higher income and tend to own cars equipped with the latest safety systems, but IIRC, at least from early survey data from Tesla owners they also tend to drive faster and are also more likely to drink/use drugs. IIRR, in the book "Traffic: Why We Drive the Way We Do (and What it Says about Us)", the most dangerous demographic was to be a white male doctor driving at night on a freeway/highway in Wyoming. In fact, Wyoming led the list when it came to one specific category of fatal accidents: "Single vehicle run-off road", which make up 70% of fatal single-vehicle accidents. Here's an NHTSA paper from 2009:
Factors Related to Fatal Single-Vehicle
Run-Off-Road Crashes
https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Pu ... ion/811232

The abstract says
The results show that the factors driver sleep, drivers with alcohol use, roadway alignment with curve, speeding vehicle, passenger car, rural roadway, high speed limit road, and adverse weather were significant factors related to the high risk of fatal single-vehicle run-off-road crashes. Also, in the adverse weather condition and for the younger drivers, the vehicle speeding would increase the
risk of fatal single-vehicle run-off-road crashes by an additional factor.


The executive summary goes on to break down each factor studied, and concludes:

Logistic regression modeling was used to assess their relative influence as well as
estimate the amount of risk each factor carries in the occurrence of such crashes.
It shows that the most influential factor in the occurrence of fatal single-vehicle
ROR crashes is the driver performance-related factor: sleepy, followed by alcohol
use, roadway alignment with curve, vehicle speeding, passenger car, rural
roadway, high-speed-limit road, adverse weather, and crash-avoiding. In the
adverse weather condition and for the younger drivers (15 to 24 and age 25 to 44),
the vehicle speeding would increase the risk of fatal single-vehicle ROR crashes
by an additional factor.

You can see why a large rural state like Wyoming would max. out most of the risk factors mentioned above.
Last edited by GRA on Sun Jul 17, 2016 4:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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