GRA wrote:Pretty insignificant after almost six years. This year, U.S. sales of PEVs are running around 0.7% nationally, IIRR. I expect a small spike when the Bolt and Prius Prime arrive,
Sales of PEVs were 1.1% in November 2016.
Bolt isn't out yet. Prius Prime is out, but a small player.https://cleantechnica.com/2016/12/03/us ... car-sales/
Sure, 1.1% is still "pretty insignificant". And I'm sure you will stay the same about 2%, 5% and 10%.
10% will be significant, as it's approaching mass market acceptance, say 15%. 5% will be significant in the sense that it will exceed the sales % that HEVs have ever achieved in the U.S., ~4% IIRR. Personally, I consider the next semi-significant step for PEVs will be when one nameplate's U.S. annual
sales exceed the highest monthly
sales of a common ICE, say Civic/Corolla/Camry/Accord/RAV4. Or when all
PEVs' U.S. annual sales exceed the U.S. annual sales of any one of those five ICEs. Nov. and YTD, here's how many each of those five have sold ( http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html#autosalesC
Camry, 28,189 / 355,204
RAV4, 28,116 / 314,925
Accord, 27,182 / 311,352
Toyota Corolla / Matrix, 26,747 / 331,081
Honda Civic, 25,303 / 335,445
There's a ways to go yet, but maybe they'll reach one of those marks next year. I figure the Prius Prime's got the best shot.