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RegGuheert
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Re: Oroville Dam Spillway Damage

Tue Feb 14, 2017 6:27 pm

WetEV wrote:Changing climate will require not only maintaining but upgrading infrastructure.
Off-topic utter nonsense.

What do the data ACTUALLY say?

There is NO TREND in precipitation in CA over the past 122 years:

Image

If you combine this with the fact that CA water usage has dropped about 20% in the last 25 years, you learn that the infrastructure in CA gets MORE adequate as time goes on.

But certainly the last two decades are the driest ever in CA, aren't they? Nope:

1998-2017 Average Annual Precipitation in CA: 21.40 inches
1918-1937 Average Annual Precipitation in CA: 19.36 inches

In other words, the rainfall in CA is now 9% higher than it was early in the 20th century when human-caused CO2 was virtually non-existent.
RegGuheert
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WetEV
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Re: Oroville Dam Spillway Damage

Tue Feb 14, 2017 8:21 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
WetEV wrote:Changing climate will require not only maintaining but upgrading infrastructure.

NO TREND in precipitation in CA over the past 122 years


Trend isn't the subject, at least today. The subject is variation. The variation is increasing. A simple measure of variation is squared difference from the mean.

Plot of Anomaly^2

Image

RegGuheert wrote:In other words, the rainfall in CA is now 9% higher than it was early in the 20th century when human-caused CO2 was virtually non-existent.


Sure, perhaps the same total precipitation, with more of it rain, less of it snow. Faster snow melt. More droughts, more floods. More variation.
WetEV
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Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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drees
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Re: Oroville Dam Spillway Damage

Wed Feb 15, 2017 2:15 am

Do we really need another thread debating climate change? :roll: Let's keep this one specifically regarding the Oroville Dam.
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WetEV
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Re: Oroville Dam Spillway Damage

Wed Feb 15, 2017 6:18 am

drees wrote:Do we really need another thread debating climate change? :roll: Let's keep this one specifically regarding the Oroville Dam.


So you want to ignore that climate change impacts the Oroville dam?

That's nice.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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RegGuheert
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Re: Oroville Dam Spillway Damage

Wed Feb 15, 2017 6:52 am

This thread has lots of interesting discussion and photographs of the Oroville Dam crisis.
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drees
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Re: Oroville Dam Spillway Damage

Wed Feb 15, 2017 9:13 am

WetEV wrote:So you want to ignore that climate change impacts the Oroville dam?

That's nice.

No. I just want to ignore the continuous arguments regarding climate change itself. Almost certainly climate change is changing precipitation patterns which affects the amount of water reaching our reservoirs. But that's not the cause of the Oroville Dam spillway failure.
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jjeff
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Re: Oroville Dam Spillway Damage

Wed Feb 15, 2017 9:22 am

WetEV wrote:Trend isn't the subject, at least today. The subject is variation. The variation is increasing. A simple measure of variation is squared difference from the mean....
...Sure, perhaps the same total precipitation, with more of it rain, less of it snow. Faster snow melt. More droughts, more floods. More variation.

I'll keep it short then, +1 :)
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Re: Oroville Dam Spillway Damage

Wed Feb 15, 2017 9:39 am

jhm614 wrote:
Marktm wrote:Had an analogous failure in Texas in a major CORP OF ENGINEER'S lake. The overflow spillway was severely eroded and formed a new mini Grand Canyon for miles! This exposed really nice archaeological structures - the state is making money with tours in the canyon. Man is no match for catastrophic natural events.

Interesting! When and where did this happen?


CalTech did an article:
http://www.caltech.edu/news/caltech-geologist-investigates-canyon-carved-just-three-days-texas-flood-1628
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Re: Oroville Dam Spillway Damage

Wed Feb 15, 2017 7:31 pm

I think CA has survived the worst drought in recorded history just fine. Reservoir system has worked quite well IMO.
Why all the uproar? So fix the spillway and the other maintenance issues being ignored on the rest of them and get on with your day.

I worry more population growth more than climate changes.
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Re: Oroville Dam Spillway Damage

Wed Feb 15, 2017 11:27 pm

1918-1937 Average Annual Precipitation in CA: 19.36 inches

I guess the Dust Bowl years have been forgotten, along with the cause. This is significant because the last decade in California has been marked by the virtually complete drying out of large areas of land, much like in the Thirties. How does this drying of vegetation affect this particular situation? Has anyone looked at the vegetation on that emergency spillway zone? Does it look like a sound root system is in place to resist erosion when the spillway is used?
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